Brent crude oil futures traded slightly lower in Asian trading on Friday (October 9), currently hovering around $106.50. As oil prices consolidated at higher levels, the latest developments in the US-Iran military situation became the focus of market attention. The US military has considered a short, high-intensity campaign of about three days against Iran, but President Trump has repeatedly refused to restart a full-scale conflict. According to media reports on Thursday, citing US officials and sources, commanders are prepared to begin a larger-scale operation within days should the president change course.

The Pentagon is preparing a three-day campaign plan with targets including energy facilities and the Revolutionary Guard command post.

The U.S. military has developed options for a short, high-intensity campaign against Iran lasting approximately three days. These plans, ordered by President Trump, would focus on Iran's missile and drone arsenal, much of which was rebuilt by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps after the initial stages of the conflict. Other potential targets include energy facilities and Revolutionary Guard command posts and headquarters. Senior national security officials, led by Vice President Vance, discussed these options at Camp David last Friday. Commanders are prepared to launch a larger operation within days should the president change course. The inclusion of Iranian energy facilities on the target list puts supplies directly at risk.

Trump has vetoed major action proposals five times, promising not to attack before the midterm election.

Media reports indicate that Trump has vetoed proposals for major action against Iran or the Houthis five times in recent months. On Thursday, he posted that Washington and Tehran were having productive discussions and that he would not launch an attack before the midterm elections. Officials had previously expected him to wait until after Israel's October 27 elections and the US elections the following week before making a decision. Negotiations through mediators continue, but are deadlocked on the order of events, with Washington seeking a nuclear agreement first, while Iran insists on putting it last. This statement temporarily eased market concerns about an impending military strike, but broader geopolitical risks remain.

Iran has attacked at least 13 ships since September, with limited US response.

The US military response has been noticeably subdued since September, even as the British Naval Monitoring Group claims Iran attacked at least 13 ships, while intelligence reports cited by the newspaper suggest closer to 20. The report states that Iran has become a more formidable adversary, forcing the US and its partners to use more interceptors in response to missile salvos and to more effectively target US bases using Chinese satellite imagery. Some officials within Trump's inner circle believe economic pressures are at play and more time is needed. While the frequency of Iranian attacks on ships is at its peak, shipping risks remain a more direct driver of crude oil prices.

Three carrier strike groups will assemble by the end of October, marking the first time since 2003.

Regardless, a major buildup is underway. The Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group will join the USS George H.W. Bush and USS George Washington as early as the end of October, marking the first time since 2003 that three aircraft carriers are operating in the Middle East, with over 20,000 sailors and Marines at sea. Even so, media reports indicate that it is far from certain whether Trump will authorize new strikes after the election. The presence of three carriers means that the risk of escalation remains even after the midterm pledge, despite Trump's five vetoes of strike proposals. For oil, the risk premium depends on one person's decision, not military readiness.

Brent crude risk premium depends on Trump alone.

The Pentagon has developed a roughly three-day campaign option targeting Iranian energy facilities, missile and drone arsenals, and Revolutionary Guard command posts. This means that once the operation begins, Iranian oil supplies will be directly at risk, and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz could escalate further. However, Trump has vetoed major action proposals five times and pledged not to attack before the midterm election, weakening market pricing in an impending strike and preventing oil prices from sustaining a surge due to military preparations. For Brent crude, the more immediate drivers are the ongoing escalation risks from Iran's attacks on at least 13 ships since September, the limited US response, and the anticipated deployment of three carrier strike groups at the end of October. The risk premium is therefore unlikely to recede, but upside potential depends on whether Trump changes course after the election. If strikes resume, Brent could rise significantly; if negotiations break through, the premium could be given back. (Brent crude oil futures daily chart, source: EasyTrade) At 8:34 Beijing time, Brent crude oil futures were trading at $103.59 per barrel.