On Monday (October 12, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,186.42 per ounce. Gold prices benefited from bargain hunting, having touched a one-week high of $4,207.57 per ounce on Friday, as traders assessed the possibility of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. US crude oil was trading around $92.37 per barrel, boosted by oil companies shutting down more than 70% of crude oil production capacity in US waters as Hurricane Isaias approached the northern Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, the situation between the US and Iran remains uncertain. It is reported that the US has accepted some of Iran's conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but it remains unclear whether the other conditions can be met.

Key Focus Today

stock market

U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, with all three major indexes rising on both the day and the week. However, the Russell 2000 index, representing smaller-cap stocks, closed lower for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.83% to 51,654.95 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.59% to 7,811.51 points; and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.64% to 27,366.17 points. Investors are turning their attention to this week, when the third-quarter earnings season begins and inflation data will be released, potentially providing clues for the Federal Reserve's next policy decision. Ross Mayfield, an investment strategist at Baird, said that market sentiment surrounding Iran was volatile, with conflicting messages from the White House and various Middle Eastern parties leaving the market directionless, resulting in a rather modest rally. Trump stated that the U.S. would not launch any attacks on Iran before the midterm elections and called the talks between Washington and Tehran to end the war with Iran "productive." This week, major banks such as Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley will release their earnings reports. Analysts expect S&P 500 component stocks to see a 30.6% year-over-year increase in overall earnings from July to September, with the energy and technology sectors showing the largest increases at 123% and 66.5%, respectively. University of Michigan data shows that U.S. consumer confidence deteriorated in October, with short-term expectations falling to a record low. AI-related stocks generally rose, with the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF rising 1%, primarily driven by the AI boom. Founder ETFs portfolio manager Michael Monaghan stated that chips are the main theme of this year's market, a decades-long technological revolution that is currently only at its beginning, not its end. SpaceX reached an agreement to acquire a portfolio of low-band spectrum assets covering the entire U.S., posing a direct challenge to U.S. wireless communications companies; T-Mobile US, AT&T, and Verizon fell 8.8% to 13.3%. Apple shares fell 1.1% after reports that it had asked some suppliers to cut production of components for the newly launched iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max as memory chip costs soared and price increases dampened consumer demand.

Gold Market

Spot gold rose 1.48% on Friday to close at $4,194.99 per ounce, after hitting a one-week high of $4,207.57 per ounce during the session, as bargain hunting was triggered after it fell to a two-month low earlier in the session, and traders were also assessing the possibility of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Stone X's head of market analysis stated that the gold price rise stemmed from buying on dips, with a bottom gradually forming around $4,000. The market has already priced in expectations of further Fed rate hikes and continued net buying by official institutions. Without a "black swan" event, it will be difficult for gold prices to convincingly break through to the upside. The US 10-year Treasury yield has moved away from its more than 20-year high. St. Louis Fed President Musalaim stated last Thursday that the Fed needs to raise rates again to bring inflation back to 2%. Traders expect a 19% probability of a rate hike in October and an 84% probability of at least a 25 basis point hike by the end of December. Bybit's chief market analyst, Han Tan, stated that this week's CPI data could be a catalyst for the next round of significant gold price volatility. If persistent inflation forces the Fed into a steeper rate hike cycle, spot gold may retest the psychological support level of $4,000. With the gold price rebound, Indian gold demand remains weak, and trading is also relatively quiet in China, the largest gold consumer, due to a shortened trading week caused by holidays.

oil market

Oil prices closed higher on Friday, with WTI crude rising 0.19% to settle at $91.66 a barrel and Brent crude rising 0.47% to settle at $104.39 a barrel, as oil companies shut down more than 70% of U.S. offshore oil production as Hurricane Isaias approached the northern Gulf of Mexico. Trump described his talks with Iran on ending the Middle East war as "productive" and hinted at an upcoming major announcement on diesel fuel, also stating he was considering suspending federal gasoline taxes. China, the world's largest oil importer, planned to resume refined oil exports after a brief halt during the Golden Week holiday, further pressured the market. Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said Trump's promises regarding Iran are driving down oil prices. Iran's Tasnim News Agency reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated Tehran is assessing the US response to a proposal that calls for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. The US continues to pressure Iran, imposing sanctions on individuals, networks, and 17 ships involved in transporting Iranian crude oil, refined oil, and petrochemical products.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar index rose 0.12% to 102.22 on Friday, and gained about 0.3% last week, marking its fourth consecutive week of gains, the longest winning streak since May 2025. Trump stated that the US would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections and said talks with Tehran were productive; falling oil prices calmed global bond markets. The market remained relatively cautious, awaiting statements from Federal Reserve officials. Market expectations for a rate hike this month were low, with CME Group's FedWatch tool showing a 19.4% probability of at least a 25 basis point hike and an 85.8% probability of a December rate hike. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index declined further in early October, and Fed officials remained divided on whether to raise rates immediately. The euro fell against the dollar on Friday, marking its fifth consecutive weekly decline, its longest losing streak since early 2025. Risk premiums on French and Italian government bonds declined last week. French bonds were pressured by budget deficit pressures, and Spain's snap election also added to the euro's pressure. The pound rose 0.06% against the dollar to 1.3235 on Friday, but its seventh consecutive weekly decline was on track for its longest losing streak since November 2024. The dollar rose 0.26% against the yen to 158.28, its fourth consecutive weekly gain.

International News

Iranian Official Says US Accepts Some Conditions, Hormuz Reopening Remains Uncertain Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary, Rezaei, stated on the 11th that the United States has accepted some of Iran's conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but whether the remaining conditions can be met remains unclear. In an interview with Iran's Press TV, he described recent communications between Iran and the US. Rezaei said that over the past two months, the US has requested a proposal from Iran through three channels: Pakistan, Qatar, and Iraq. Iran presented the US with seven conditions and made it clear that it would not open the Strait of Hormuz or engage in negotiations unless these conditions were met. He stated that the US has responded, but Iran believes the response is insufficient. The US needs to clarify some ambiguities, and Iran will observe whether the US can dispel its doubts before deciding on further actions. Rezaei warned that if the US launches another aggression against Iran, US assets in the Middle East, including critical data systems and artificial intelligence facilities, will become targets. He also stated that Iran is prepared to demonstrate new military capabilities should war break out. Rezaei refuted US claims about the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, stating that some ships operate through smuggling networks, and current shipping volume is still far below pre-war levels. Iran will continue to maintain control of the strait. Iran says it will not abandon nuclear technology under foreign pressure. On October 11, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Eslami, stated that Iran cannot abandon its domestically acquired nuclear technology under foreign pressure, and there is no law allowing foreign countries to deprive Iran of this technology. Eslami said Iran will continue to vigorously promote its nuclear power projects, and construction will not stop. (CCTV International News) Houthi Tactics Show Key Shift As the conflict in Yemen continues to escalate, Riyadh International Airport in Saudi Arabia, Aden International Airport in Yemeni government-controlled territory, and Sana'a and Hodeidah International Airports in Houthi-controlled territory have been frequently attacked in the past week. The Wall Street Journal analyzed that the recent attacks on Riyadh's airports, coinciding with Saudi Arabia's peak conference and tourism season, may be an attempt by the Houthis to threaten Saudi Arabia's business and tourism development. The Yemeni government warned on October 10 that the Houthi attack on Aden International Airport marked a "key shift" in its tactics. (CCTV) Russia partially lifts diesel export ban, allowing initial shipments of 500,000 tons to the international market . The Russian government announced that it has decided to partially lift the diesel export ban, allowing the shipment of 500,000 tons of diesel to the international market in the first phase. This decision, effective October 10, is part of an agreement reached between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump. The announcement stated, "This decision, effective October 10, allows the shipment of 500,000 tons of diesel to the global market at this stage." Trump says he does not rule out the US joining Saudi Arabia in its fight against the Houthis . US President Donald Trump stated that he does not rule out the US joining Saudi Arabia in its fight against the Houthis. In response to a reporter's question, he said, "It's possible. We will study this issue. We just learned about this recent attack. We will make a decision. We acted very quickly." The Saudi Arabian General Authority of Civil Aviation confirmed that a missile attack on Riyadh International Airport on October 10 killed 12 people and injured 309. The Houthi rebels in Yemen frequently attack targets within Saudi Arabia during their conflict with the country, but have not yet claimed responsibility for this attack. The U.S. Marine National Oceanic and Mineral Resources Administration (NOAA) reports that over 70% of Gulf of Mexico oil production has been suspended due to the storm . The NOAA stated that to avoid the storm, personnel have been evacuated from 8 of the 11 non-dynamically positioned drilling rigs currently operating in the Gulf of Mexico, representing 72.73%; and from 2 of the 17 dynamically positioned drilling rigs, preventative measures have been taken, with personnel evacuated from their original operating positions. Regarding manned production platforms, personnel have been evacuated from 129 of the 371 platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, representing 34.77%. In terms of production, approximately 71.51% of oil production and 58.84% of natural gas production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico have been suspended. Russian and U.S. leaders speak; Putin says Russia is unlikely to resume negotiations with Ukraine at present . Russian Presidential Aide Ushakov briefed on the phone call between the two leaders early on the 10th local time. Ushakov stated that Putin detailed the measures Russia has taken in response to the terrorist attacks carried out by the Ukrainian armed forces. Putin stated that Ukraine's attempts to disrupt the Russian State Duma elections and its attacks on civilians have undermined the possibility of an immediate resumption of negotiations. Putin also pointed out that Ukraine's attempts to stop the Russian military advance have no prospect of success; the Russian army currently holds complete initiative on the battlefield and is continuing to advance. Putin emphasized that due to Ukraine's position, particularly its attempts to disrupt the Russian Duma elections, it is currently impossible to resume negotiations with Ukraine. Trump has instructed that the message conveyed by Putin in the call be relayed to the Ukrainian delegation. Ushakov stated that the two sides have not yet discussed the issue of holding a bilateral meeting between Putin and Trump. (CCTV) The probability of a Fed rate hike in October is 18.3%. According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged by October is 81.7%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 18.3%. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged by December is 15.8%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 69.5%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 14.7%.

Domestic News

Airfares Drop Significantly, Accommodation Discounts Increase, Post-Holiday Off-Peak Travel Continues to Heat Up In October, the tourism market is offering a combination of high-value deals. Data from online travel platforms shows that, as of now, the average price of airfares to popular cities is more than 30% lower than during the National Day holiday. From major source cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, airfares for many popular holiday destinations have dropped to the 200-300 yuan range. Airfare bookings for mid-to-late October and November have seen a significant increase. (CCTV News) National Corporate Credit Rating Steadily Recovered in August According to the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Corporate Credit Index was 161.32 in August, an increase of 2.45 points from July. Compared with the previous month, the operating and regulatory sub-indicators showed higher increases, the number of newly added companies to the list of companies with abnormal operations decreased significantly, the number of newly removed companies increased substantially, and the proportion of companies with high credit risk decreased, driving the overall credit level to stabilize and recover. In August of this year, the top five industries in terms of credit index were finance, manufacturing, water conservancy, environment and public facilities management, electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply, and transportation, warehousing and postal services. Compared with the previous month, the indices for manufacturing, transportation, warehousing and postal services, and wholesale and retail trade grew relatively rapidly, with manufacturing reaching its highest ranking this year. (CCTV News)