Data released by the British Retail Consortium (BRC) on Tuesday showed that UK same-store retail sales rose 1.0% year-on-year in September, a significant acceleration from 0.5% in August and exceeding market expectations of 0.7%. Total retail sales rose 1.3% year-on-year, higher than the previous 0.7%, but still below the 12-month average of 1.5%. The increase in sales was mainly driven by fuel spending, with warmer weather boosting dining out, but discretionary categories such as clothing performed weakly, reflecting that British households remain cautious with their discretionary spending. The US dollar continued to receive multiple supports. The dollar index rose about 0.33% on Monday, closing near 102.56, maintaining its 18-month high. Cleveland Fed President Hammark delivered a hawkish speech on Monday, stating that the Fed should take "relatively swift" small-scale adjustments to curb broader inflationary pressures, and warned that AI investment and the wealth effect may be supporting demand. CME FedWatch showed that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October was about 79.5%, but the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December had risen to 70.3%. In addition, the continued tension in the Middle East—Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and increased shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz—continued to drive safe-haven funds into dollar assets. The pound's rebound was not without constraints. UK household consumption expenditure fell for the ninth consecutive month in August, indicating that the foundation for domestic demand recovery remains fragile. High energy prices pose a double blow to the UK economy: on the one hand, they push up inflation through cost-push channels, reinforcing the Bank of England's reason for maintaining a tight stance; on the other hand, they erode residents' real purchasing power, dragging down economic growth. Goldman Sachs predicts that the UK's overall CPI will peak at 3.9% in early 2027. The market currently anticipates a rising probability of a Bank of England rate hike in November, but the sustainability of this rate support remains questionable if growth continues to weaken. From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair is still trading below the Bollinger Band middle line at 1.3295-1.3336 on the daily chart, indicating that the short-to-medium-term trend has not yet fully reversed. The MACD indicator shows both the DIFF and DEA lines below the zero line, with the histogram close to the zero line, suggesting a balance between bullish and bearish forces without a clear bullish signal. The first resistance level is in the 1.3275-1.3300 area, corresponding to the 4-hour chart's supply zone and the dynamic resistance of the 100-period moving average. A successful break above this level could lead to a short-term rebound to the 1.3336 Bollinger Band middle line and even the psychological level of 1.3400. The first support level to watch is the psychological level of 1.3200, which has been tested multiple times and formed a short-term bottom. A decisive break below this level would likely lead to a retest of the 1.3180-1.3140 area, with the lower Bollinger Band around 1.3115 providing stronger support. On the 4-hour chart, the price has formed a small consolidation range after rebounding from its lows. The MACD histogram is contracting, the RSI has risen to around 47, and volatility is narrowing, indicating the market is awaiting a directional breakout. Editor's Summary: The British pound is currently caught in a tug-of-war between "data-supported rebound" and "strong dollar suppression." Better-than-expected BRC retail sales data provided some temporary support for the pound, but the weak growth quality—driven by fuel spending and weak discretionary consumption—is unlikely to fundamentally change market concerns about insufficient UK economic momentum. The US dollar remains strong due to hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve and safe-haven demand from the Middle East. This Wednesday's US September CPI data will be a key variable: if inflation is stronger than expected, the dollar may strengthen further, limiting the pound's upside potential; conversely, if the data is weak, the dollar may weaken, and the pound could test the 1.3275-1.3300 resistance zone. Furthermore, this Friday's UK monthly GDP data, and speeches by UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Healy and Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings, will also provide new directional guidance for the exchange rate.