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2026-10-19 05:58:20
According to the latest calculations from CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate level in October is 83.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 16.1%. However, by the December policy meeting, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is only 8.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 77.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 14.5%. Market expectations suggest that the probability of a rate hike in October is relatively low, while the expectation of a rate hike in December is quite strong. Most market participants believe that the Federal Reserve will implement at least one 25 basis point rate hike before the end of the year.
