The USD/CAD pair traded between 1.4115 and 1.4125 in Asian trading on Monday. After opening lower near 1.4080, it rebounded quickly, recovering some losses, but remained in negative territory overall. The pair traded cautiously ahead of key data releases and central bank decisions, with both bulls and bears reluctant to make premature bets. The pullback in oil prices was the main reason for the Canadian dollar's weakness today. WTI crude oil fell to around $97.30 to $97.50 per barrel in Asian trading on Monday, a decline of about 1.7% from Friday's close of $99.04 per barrel. The Trump administration signed an executive order last Friday suspending some energy sanctions and tariffs on Russia, leading to market expectations of increased Russian diesel exports and triggering short-term profit-taking in oil prices. However, geopolitical risks in the Middle East have not dissipated—the Iranian Revolutionary Guard claimed that an oil tanker struck a mine and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, and the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council warned that retaliatory plans were prepared for a new round of attacks against the US and Israel. Geopolitical premiums limited the downside for oil prices. As a commodity currency, the Canadian dollar is highly sensitive to oil price fluctuations, and the decline in oil prices directly weakened the short-term support for the Canadian dollar. Regarding expectations for Federal Reserve policy, Chairman Warsh's "no prediction" statement at the IMF annual meeting in Bangkok last Friday continues to have an impact. The market's probability of keeping interest rates unchanged at the October 28 meeting has risen to 83.9%, significantly cooling expectations of a rate hike, which marginally weakens the dollar's rate hike premium. However, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the December meeting remains as high as 77% to 88%, indicating that the tightening cycle has not ended, and the dollar as a whole still receives medium- to long-term support. In Canada, the September CPI inflation data and the Bank of Canada's third-quarter business and consumer outlook survey will be released today (October 19th). These two data points are the last two key indicators before the interest rate decision on October 28th. The Bank of Canada has kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25% for seven consecutive meetings, but Governor Macklem has recently warned repeatedly of the risk of double-dip inflation due to soaring oil prices, stating that a rate hike is possible if inflationary pressures persist. Market expectations for a rate hike in October are currently divided, with some institutions expecting the central bank to take a "hawkish stance and hold rates steady," while the probability of a rate hike in December has risen to around 95%. If today's CPI data exceeds expectations, it could significantly boost the short-term momentum of the Canadian dollar. From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD pair is trading below the 20-day exponential moving average on the daily chart, indicating a weakening of the medium-term bullish structure. The price is currently fluctuating around 1.4120, with short-term moving averages flattening and MACD momentum weak, without a clear breakout signal. The upper resistance levels are 1.4173, 1.4210, 1.4250, and 1.4300. The lower support levels are 1.4094, 1.4030, and 1.3980. If the price breaks through 1.4173 with significant volume and holds above 1.4210, the short-term bearish structure may ease; if it falls below 1.4094, it may further retrace to the 1.4030-1.3980 area. Editor's Summary: The USD/CAD pair is currently caught in a dual struggle between "oil price corrections weakening the Canadian dollar" and "cooling expectations of a Fed rate hike suppressing the US dollar." Today's Canadian September CPI data and business surveys will be key catalysts; if inflationary pressures exceed expectations, they could provide short-term support for the Canadian dollar. Going forward, key attention should be paid to the Bank of Canada and Fed rate decisions on October 28th, shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, and whether WTI crude oil can stabilize around $97/barrel.