A seasoned American market veteran who has repeatedly warned of bubbles for thirty years is now betting his judgment with real money. He sold his home, liquidated his gold reserves, and left only one sentence: This may be the only time you need to protect yourself.

Owner-occupied homes were sold first, with strong belief in the biggest bubble in history.

Harry Dent, founder of HSDent and author of *The Once-in-a-Lifetime Sell-Off*, rose to fame in 1993 with *The Great Boom Ahead*, accurately predicting the long bull market of the 1990s. Now, however, he believes the rally since March 2009 is "the biggest and longest-lasting bubble in history," inflating US stocks, real estate, gold, and silver all at once. In his view, the only safe haven is long-term US Treasury bonds. Dent stated, "I'm selling my main house because it was hit the hardest. I sold my vacation home years ago." In March, he stated he would reassess his predictions if a crash didn't occur by late summer. Now, he has reassessed, and his conclusion remains unchanged. He says the market "is still slowly climbing, but it's losing momentum, and it still looks like a top." He added, "I know this sounds crazy, but I'm telling you, this is the only time you need to protect yourself." Chart: Medium- to Long-Term Trends in US Housing Prices

The suggestion for selling the property was unexpected: sell the one with the highest net value first.

Dent's real estate advice surprised the audience the most. He said that after his lectures, people often asked him whether they should sell their mortgaged vacation homes, and his answer was: sell the one you've already paid off. Dent stated, "You should sell the house with the highest net worth, whether it's a vacation home or not, because that's where you'll lose the most." His logic was that if a highly leveraged house collapses, the bank will bear most of the losses, and borrowers can even choose to foreclose. But this isn't without its costs: foreclosure will ruin the borrower's credit, and in some states, lenders can pursue the remaining debt. The housing market has already sent warning signals: pending home sales fell 7.3% month-over-month in September, the lowest level since the National Association of Realtors began tracking the data in 2001, while economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a 0.5% drop. Redfin data shows that 14.5% of home purchases fell through in September, the highest since the outbreak of the pandemic. However, home prices have not softened, with existing home prices still up 1.3% year-over-year. Goldman Sachs estimates that over 95% of mortgage holders are currently paying below-market rates, leaving them with little incentive to sell. Dent believes this stalemate won't last; Freddie Mac's 30-year average mortgage rate reached 7.40% in mid-October, compared to just 6.27% a year ago. He says, "A 7.5% rate should have already triggered a market reaction, and I think it will." His bigger warning lies in how long the damage will last, asserting that "real estate won't see these values again for the next 20, 30, 40, or even 50 years." He believes the reason lies in demographics, which is precisely the focus of his career. The younger generation isn't large enough to absorb all the homes the baby boomers will sell over the next two decades. Dent says, "The passing of the baby boomers is killing real estate." He predicts large suburban homes will be the first to be affected.

Zero open interest in gold, claiming a bubble already exists.

Perhaps most shocking is his own investment portfolio. When asked if he held gold, Dent simply replied, "No gold." His reasoning was that gold had also joined the bubble. According to data cited by CBS News, spot gold was trading around $4,150 an ounce on October 20, about 26% lower than the record high of around $5,596 at the end of January. Dent expects gold prices to fall further, asserting, "Gold is not a safe haven here. Remember me, it has inflated too much and needs at least a 60% to 70% correction." In his view, gold prices will fall back to the lows of 2015-2016. Central banks are not selling off. According to official data from the central bank of a major Asian country, the bank increased its gold holdings by about 740,000 ounces in September, the largest monthly increase in nearly three years, but Dent is unconvinced. However, his prediction is not all bad news for gold holders; he believes the best days for gold are after the collapse, driven by Indian demand. He said, "After the crash, gold will experience its biggest rally in history." He set the timeframe for this rally at 2028 or 2029 , and it could extend as late as 2070.

Bearish on US stocks, betting 3x on short selling

Dent predicts the first wave of the stock market downturn will be rapid and deep, targeting the post-pandemic lows of late 2022. He estimates that this would mean a drop of approximately 54% for the S&P 500 and 66% for the Nasdaq, with a potential overall decline of 80% to 90%, similar to the period from 1929 to 1932. Some large funds have already begun to withdraw: according to the Financial Times, the Nasdaq 100 fell 5.5% in the week ending October 16, its worst week since April 2025; Bloomberg, citing Goldman Sachs data, reported that hedge funds reduced their technology holdings at the fastest pace since 2016 in the five trading days ending October 15. Dent said, "Smart money is already selling." Of course, many investors do not see this as a bubble; statistics show that S&P 500 companies have achieved double-digit profit growth for seven consecutive quarters. However , Dent countered by citing the "Buffett Indicator," the ratio of total stock market capitalization to the economy. He calculated the index to be around 238%, the "highest in history," and called it "the worst time to buy stocks in history." His short-selling plan targets only the first wave of the decline, using a fund that moves three times the daily average against the Nasdaq 100. He said, "I'll buy SQQQ because it's three times short. If I can catch this wave, I can retire on it." It should be noted that these types of funds are designed for short-term trading, and due to daily resets, even if the market falls, long-term holding may result in losses—a risk explicitly highlighted by its issuer, ProShares.

The only safe haven, betting on long-term US Treasury bonds

For others, Dent's advice is to switch to the safest bonds. He prefers long-term U.S. Treasuries, noting their yields of around 5% to 5.5%, because the government can always print money to repay them. "These bonds won't default, which is why they're a safe haven," he says. He expects long-term interest rates to fall sharply during economic downturns, pushing up bond prices, and predicts that the popular TLT fund, holding 20-year or longer-term Treasuries, could rise "over 100%." For a long time afterward, he sees a downward price picture, asserting that "deflation will be the only trend for the next 10 to 12 years." He doesn't believe the Federal Reserve can reverse this trend—the Fed raised rates in September and will make its next decision on October 28. "They don't realize how sensitive this bubble is," Dent says. And once the bubble bursts, he plans to reinvest in artificial intelligence and India, with a window between 2029 and 2065.

Conclusion

Dent's defensive advice ultimately boils down to a probabilistic calculation he observed: "If I'm wrong, you'll only lose 5%, 10%, or even 20%; but if I'm right, you'll avoid losing 50% to 80% of all your financial assets—real estate, stocks, everything."