On Friday (October 30, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,013 per ounce. High US inflation strengthened market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, reducing gold's appeal. Gold prices are poised for a second consecutive monthly decline, and may face another battle at the $4,000 per ounce level during the day. US crude oil was trading around $102.75 per barrel. Although hopes for potential peace talks between the US and Iran eased some concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East caused by escalating regional conflict, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia kept the market cautious, pushing oil prices higher.

Key Focus Today

stock market

U.S. stocks closed lower across the board on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.25% to 52,342.56, the S&P 500 fell 0.30% to 7,720.39, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.37% to 26,184.72. Investors reassessed the massive spending by large tech companies in AI and digested corporate earnings and key inflation data. The Russell 2000 index bucked the trend, rising 1.0%. Alphabet plunged 12.6% due to weaker-than-expected revenue and accelerated cash burn related to AI, dragging down the communications services sector. The semiconductor index ended a four-day winning streak, falling 1.4%. Among software stocks, Fortinet and ServiceNow both fell more than 20% after reporting earnings, and Amazon fell 6.5% in after-hours trading due to disappointing fourth-quarter sales guidance. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and said price pressures remained "high." Data released on Thursday showed that the preliminary estimate of U.S. third-quarter GDP growth was 3.4%, higher than expected, while war-related oil supply shortages contributed to inflation transmission. With the earnings season halfway through, 253 companies in the S&P 500 have released their results, with 81% exceeding expectations. Analysts predict that overall earnings will increase by 31.0% year-over-year in the third quarter.

Gold Market

Spot gold fell 1.18% on Thursday to settle at $4,021.13 an ounce, as persistently high U.S. inflation strengthened market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, reducing the appeal of non-interest-bearing gold and setting the price on track for its second consecutive monthly decline. U.S. Commerce Department data showed that the PCE price index rose 0.5% month-over-month in September, while the August increase remained unrevised at 0.3%. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and postponed adjustments to borrowing costs until after next week's midterm elections. The CME Group's FedWatch tool showed traders expect an approximately 80% probability of a rate hike in December. David Meger, head of metals trading at High Ridge Futures, said that persistently high inflation prospects have led the market to believe the Fed will raise rates at its December meeting. The PCE report did not alleviate concerns, and the market's next focus will be on the impact of the energy market and the escalation or easing of tensions in the Middle East on metal prices. Investors are also watching the U.S. midterm elections on November 3 and their impact on fiscal policy and market sentiment. Spot silver fell 3.4% to $52.14 per ounce, platinum fell 3.7% to $1,481.75, and palladium fell 0.9% to $1,001.92, with all three precious metals poised for their second consecutive monthly decline.

oil market

Oil prices rose on Thursday, with Brent crude up 1.01% to settle at $111.54 a barrel and WTI crude up 0.9% to settle at $102.86 a barrel. While hopes for potential peace talks between the U.S. and Iran eased concerns about disruptions to Middle Eastern supplies caused by escalating regional conflict, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia kept the market cautious. Earlier, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, citing US officials and sources, that US Vice President Vance had written to Iran's Supreme National Security Council chief, Rezaei, in an attempt to restart peace talks. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo stated that oil prices were under pressure as all parties resumed diplomatic efforts to ease the Middle East conflict. Two sources indicated that ExxonMobil and Chevron canceled plans for their executives to attend the UAE's largest oil exhibition next week, citing security concerns. Yemen's Houthi rebels launched a large-scale missile attack on Thursday, targeting Saudi Aramco. John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, said reports of the new attack helped oil prices recover some ground in later trading. The Saudi-led coalition fighting the Houthis said it destroyed a ballistic missile launched by the group towards eastern Saudi Arabia earlier on Thursday. The hostilities show no signs of abating. Iran's Revolutionary Guard stated that three oil tankers triggered mines in the past 24 hours while attempting to use an unauthorized route south of the Strait of Hormuz, subsequently exploding and catching fire.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar index fell 0.24% on Thursday to settle at $101.87 a barrel. Accelerated U.S. inflation in September supported economists' expectations of a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve, and third-quarter economic growth also exceeded expectations. However, Eugene Epstein of Moneycorp noted that the dollar did not react strongly to the latest economic developments, as most of the data was in line with expectations and had already been priced in. Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh said on Wednesday that inflation could be brought down to the 2% target without slowing economic growth or pushing up unemployment, prompting traders to reduce their bets on a 2027 rate hike. He also stated that the Fed would dedicate one of its eight regular policy meetings next year and two in 2028 to discussing major issues without considering adjustments to monetary policy at these meetings. However, the market still expects a near 80% chance of a December rate hike. The euro rose slightly by 0.23% against the dollar on Thursday, closing at 1.1179, after earlier falling to its lowest level since May. The European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates unchanged as expected, but warned that rising energy costs were increasing inflation risks and announced that ECB President Christine Lagarde would step down early on February 7 (originally scheduled to end her term in October 2027). Saltmarsh Economics economist Marchel Alexandrovich said the ECB had given a clear signal that a December rate hike was highly likely, and Lagarde's early departure would make the market more focused on major personnel changes at the ECB in the first half of 2027, with Schnabel and Lane also set to leave their posts. The dollar held steady against the yen around 15,770, with the market focused on the Bank of Japan concluding its two-day meeting on Friday, expecting it to keep interest rates unchanged. Bank of America analysts said the meeting was unlikely to trigger significant yen volatility, but given the resilient underlying inflationary pressures, the risk would lean toward yen strength if more than one member voted hawkishly against the rate.

International News

Yemen's Houthi rebels announced six military operations against targets inside Saudi Arabia. The Houthi armed forces in Yemen claimed to have used ballistic missiles and drones to strike the Ras Tanura oil refinery, Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq facility, King Khalid Airport in Riyadh, King Fahd International Airport in Dammam, the Rabigh oil refinery, and the military assembly command in the Najran region. They claimed the attacks disrupted air traffic and caused casualties among Saudi military personnel. US Central Command Commander briefs Trump on military options against Iran . On October 29, local time, it was learned that US Central Command Commander Brad Cooper briefed US President Trump at the White House on military action options against Iran. US Defense Secretary Hergsays and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Kane also participated in the meeting. This meeting comes as the Trump administration assesses whether to resume large-scale military action against Iran. US officials have recently signaled to some Gulf states that they should prepare for a short-term, high-intensity military operation that may take place after the midterm elections. At the same time, the US is also continuing to promote diplomatic engagement. In addition, the Pentagon has recently deployed additional air defense systems, ammunition, and other supplies to the Middle East and adjusted some troop deployments. Trump has not yet made a final decision on a new round of military action against Iran. (CCTV News) Preliminary vote counting for the Israeli parliamentary elections is complete, and the number of seats is largely determined. The Israeli Central Election Commission has completed the preliminary vote counting for the current parliamentary elections and announced the preliminary results. According to the results including all special votes, the right-wing ruling coalition led by incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu won 53 seats, while the opposition coalition led by former IDF Chief of Staff Esenkot won 48 seats. Arab parties not belonging to either of these two major coalitions won 19 seats. Currently, no single coalition has reached the parliamentary majority required to form a government, i.e., at least 61 seats. Looking at the specific party votes, Netanyahu's right-wing Likud party won 27 seats, maintaining its position as the largest party in parliament; Esenkot's Honesty party won 21 seats, ranking second. In addition, the Unity Party, led by former Israeli Prime Ministers Bennett and Lapid, won 12 seats; the Arab-origin political alliance "United List" won 11 seats; the center-left Democratic Party and the Arab-origin United Arab Party (Ram Party) each won 8 seats; the right-wing "Israel Beiteinu" party, the far-right "Jewish Power" party, and the ultra-Orthodox religious party "Bible-Judaism" party each won 7 seats; and the far-right religious Zionist party and the ultra-Orthodox religious party "Shas" party each won 6 seats. (CCTV News) EU Energy Ministers' Meeting Held, Natural Gas Prices in Focus The EU energy ministers' meeting was held on the 29th, with natural gas prices receiving significant attention. Currently, energy costs are rising sharply, and Europe is facing a difficult heating season. European benchmark natural gas futures prices have broken through €100 per megawatt-hour, reaching this level for the first time since December 2022. EU Energy and Housing Commissioner Jørgensen warned that Europe is facing "another energy crisis," and more than 50 million European residents may be unable to afford winter heating costs. A typical gas-fired heating household is expected to see its energy costs increase by approximately €600 during the heating season from November this year to March next year. Including taxes, the additional expenditure could reach €715. Jorgensen also pointed out that this energy crisis is in some ways more severe than that of 2022, as the pressure on Europe is no longer limited to natural gas; gasoline, diesel, and other refined oil prices are also high. Energy costs will further be passed on to transportation, industrial production, and commodity prices, putting even greater pressure on the European economy. (CCTV) ECB Officials Expect to Pause Tightening After December Rate Hike According to three sources, ECB policy officials expect a 25 basis point rate hike on December 17, raising the deposit rate from 2.50% to 2.75%. Unless energy prices fall sharply, this rate hike is almost a certainty. However, officials expect to stop further tightening after the rate hike, because rising bond yields could reduce Eurozone economic growth by 1 percentage point and inflation by 0.9 percentage points between 2027 and 2028. Iran has not yet responded to a letter from US Vice President Vance, emphasizing that the US must meet seven conditions set by Iran. Iranian sources indicate that Vice President Vance has sent a letter to the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, which Iran has received but has not yet responded to. Iran stressed that the US must implement the seven conditions it has proposed, and any position that deviates from this established framework is unacceptable.

Domestic News

On October 29, 2026, the government implemented further price controls, appropriately adjusting refined oil prices. Since the domestic refined oil price adjustment on October 15, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a significant rise in international crude oil prices. To mitigate the impact on the domestic market, the government again implemented price controls. Based on the current pricing mechanism, starting from 24:00 on October 29, the prices of gasoline and diesel (standard grades) should have increased by 440 yuan and 420 yuan per ton respectively. Taking into account both reducing the burden on downstream users and ensuring a safe and stable supply of refined oil, the actual increase after the controls was 345 yuan and 335 yuan respectively. (National Development and Reform Commission)