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2026-11-01 08:18:27
[Market odds attract attention but are not "truth machines": broadly consistent with polls] (1) During this round of US midterm elections, market odds have received more attention, frequently appearing in prominent positions in news reports, campaign articles, and political advertisements. Some have accused platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket of misjudging candidates—their favored candidates ultimately lost; others have used screenshots of candidates' odds plummeting during the vote counting process as evidence of fraud. (2) Although market odds are packaged as "truth machines," they, like polls, have limitations; some of the opposition stems from a misunderstanding of what market odds can and cannot explain. (3) In terms of the midterm elections, the odds on Kalshi and Polymarket are generally consistent with the direction of polls: the 75% to 25% probability distribution in market odds, compared to the 5-percentage-point lead in polls, seems one-sided, but the two are broadly consistent because they measure different things—the difference in polls reflects the candidate's lead, while market odds represent the candidate's probability of winning on election day. A comparison of several key midterm elections reveals that polls generally reflect the overall judgment of the forecasting market.
