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2026-11-02 14:10:24
[With the US midterm elections approaching, markets are focused on the outcome of the congressional control election and its policy implications] 1. US voters will head to the polls on Tuesday to decide whether the Democrats can wrest control of Congress from the Trump-led Republicans. The general consensus is that the Democrats will win the House of Representatives, but the outcome in the Senate remains uncertain. 2. Eric Robertsen, Global Head of Research and Chief Strategist at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that a major challenge in analyzing election results is that while polls may show the incumbent in a disadvantageous position, this doesn't necessarily translate into actual results, as seen in Brazil and Israel. 3. Robertsen pointed out that if the Democrats win a comprehensive victory in Congress, capital expenditure plans for data centers and AI infrastructure may face increasing obstacles at the state level; the next round of debate on raising the US debt ceiling could also become one of the most contentious issues in recent years. 4. Andreja Cobeljic, Head of Derivatives Trading at AMINA Bank, stated that hedge funds suffered "significant losses" in October, leaving the market with "virtually no capacity" to digest any surprises from the midterm elections.
