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[Germany's Gas Inventory is Low, Institutions and Government Have Different Assessments] ⑴ As a cold wave approaches, Germany's natural gas inventory is significantly lower than the 15-year seasonal average. As Europe's largest economy, its buffer against consecutive cold waves is limited, and persistent low temperatures will accelerate inventory depletion and increase reliance on higher-priced alternatives to liquefied natural gas (LNG). ⑵ According to inventory data reported by German news agencies, Germany's natural gas inventory was approximately 61.2% on Saturday, below the 70% average required on Sunday, while the 15-year average for the same period is approximately 91%. ⑶ This target is a combination of two rules: the German Federal Network Agency sets an 80% inventory level at all stations by November 1st, and a 45% requirement for six designated stations, resulting in an overall requirement of approximately 70%. ⑷ The German government states that the shortfall is not a problem. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Economic Affairs stated that even at current inventory levels, Germany's natural gas supply this winter is guaranteed. The Federal Network Agency maintains that supply security is assured and continues to believe that the risk of natural gas supply shortages is low. (5) The storage industry is taking a more cautious approach. The general manager of the German Storage Association INES called the failure to meet the standards a "serious warning," stating that Germany is entering the heating season with relatively low safety reserves and warning of vulnerability in abnormally low temperatures. (6) Last week, the EU benchmark TTF natural gas price closed at €104 per megawatt-hour, the first time since the 2022 energy crisis. European natural gas prices are currently about 11 times higher than US prices. (7) Data from several weeks ago showed that EU natural gas inventories declined for the first time this year. With limited overall buffer before winter, Europe will need to compete with Asian buyers for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in the open market, and prices may continue to rise.