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2026-11-02 19:08:26
[Divergent Economic Data Ahead of US Midterm Elections, Voters' Sentiment Towards Prices Remains Negative] ⑴ The US is about to hold midterm elections. Continued inflation is squeezing household incomes, and high living costs are a primary concern for voters. Many attribute price pressures to tariffs and the disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict. ⑵ Macroeconomic indicators show resilience. The unemployment rate has remained below 4.4% for five consecutive years, and the annualized GDP growth rate in the third quarter was 3.2%. The AI boom has driven a significant increase in corporate investment, and US stocks have repeatedly hit new highs this year. ⑶ Consumer confidence indicators show significant divergence. The Conference Board's confidence index has rebounded slightly, while the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is approaching historical lows. Analysts believe that the sentiment index is closer to ordinary people's perceptions of income and expenditure and has a higher weighting in the election results. ⑷ Since the beginning of 2025, wage and price increases have been roughly in sync, and residents' actual purchasing power has not improved. Coupled with 30-year mortgage rates exceeding 7%, housing costs continue to rise, further increasing the burden on the public. (5) Economists warn of risks: if the AI capital expenditure boom quickly subsides and corporate investment intentions decline, coupled with continued price increases due to oil prices and tariffs, the US economy risks sliding into stagflation; the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again in December to curb inflation.
