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2026-11-02 19:26:25
[California Consumer Confidence Rebounds Sharply as Election Approaches, But Long-Term Expectations Remain Weak] ⑴ On the eve of the election, California's consumer confidence index surged 14% month-over-month in October, recovering from the pandemic-induced low reached in September; however, the index remains 27% lower than the same period two years ago, indicating overall economic sentiment is below the long-term average. ⑵ Sub-indices show that residents' assessment of the current economic situation has slightly improved, but the future economic expectation index has weakened significantly, falling 32% compared to two years ago, reflecting concerns about future income and employment. ⑶ The national confidence index also rebounded, rising 8% month-over-month, similarly from a 12-year low; while national current situation indicators are acceptable, long-term expectations remain weak. ⑷ This round of weak confidence is mainly due to the slowdown in job expansion, coupled with persistently high gasoline prices, which continue to squeeze household spending; California's export-oriented economic model also conflicts with the current domestic-first policy. (5) Among the remaining seven key states, only a few, such as Florida and Texas, saw a significant recovery in confidence, while most swing states experienced a continuous decline in economic activity over the past two years. (6) Viewpoint: Short-term sentiment recovery is unlikely to reverse long-term pessimism. High oil prices and weak employment will continue to suppress consumer spending, and the election results are unlikely to immediately reverse the pressure on people's livelihoods caused by inflation.
