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2026-11-02 19:32:25
[Gold Prices Plunge: Is Now a Window for Gold Investment?] ⑴ International gold prices have fallen from an August high of $4680/ounce to around $3880 in October, with speculative long positions being significantly reduced, clearing out previously crowded long positions. ⑵ Gold prices have fallen to a key technical support level, with the 100-month moving average at $3855. This pullback also touched the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous surge, indicating strong medium- to long-term support. ⑶ If the stock market continues to weaken and market risk aversion intensifies, funds will shift from risk assets to gold; coupled with the significant cooling of long positions, the risk-reward ratio for entering the market now is significantly improved. ⑷ Rising oil prices pose a risk of renewed inflation, and the Federal Reserve may continue to raise interest rates. Once monetary policy tightens and suppresses the stock market, gold's value as an inflation hedge and safe haven will be further highlighted. ⑸ Short-term stock market corrections will drive safe-haven buying and support gold prices, but after the overall market risk is repriced, gold is more suitable as a stable asset in a diversified portfolio. (6) Viewpoint: Avoid heavy investment in short-term rebounds; building positions in batches is more prudent. In an environment of fluctuating inflation and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, gold remains a preferred choice among hedging assets.
