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2026-11-03 15:56:25
[Swissquote: US Midterm Election a Key Test for Oil Prices, Geopolitical Premium May Not Decline] (1) Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya said the US midterm elections are a key test for oil prices; investors are assessing the US government's next move in the Middle East, how long supply disruptions will last, and the geopolitical premium included in crude oil prices based on the election results. (2) If the Democrats control one or both houses of Congress, they may increase scrutiny of war policies, question military appropriations, and increase pressure to push for a diplomatic solution after the new Congress is formed. (3) She said, "However, the market may immediately priced in this pressure." (4) If credible progress in negotiations follows and the outlook for shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz improves, oil prices may continue to fall. (5) However, even if a weakened Republican position increases pressure to push for a diplomatic solution, it does not necessarily mean that the geopolitical risk premium will decline.
