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2026-11-03 21:26:26
[US Midterm Election Voting Underway, US Stock Futures Fluctuate Narrowly] ⑴ US voters cast their ballots on Election Day, with control of both the House and Senate in limbo. Investors also assessed the rising risks of AI-driven trading, resulting in largely unchanged US stock futures. ⑵ S&P 500 futures were little changed, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3%, recovering some of their earlier losses. ⑶ Technology stocks attempted a cautious rebound, after entering a technical correction the previous day. ⑷ This election adds another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile market environment. ⑸ The prediction market Polymarket currently projects a 95% probability of Democrats winning control of the House and a 77% probability of winning control of the Senate, meaning Democrats could potentially control both houses of Congress. ⑹ As investors adjust their positions based on election results, the divergence between polls and prediction market expectations has once again drawn attention. (7) Esaye, founder of The Sevens Report, said that investors need to remember a key statistic: although past performance is not a guarantee of future results, the S&P 500 has never fallen below the level of election day 12 months after a midterm election in the past 76 years since 1950.
