Iran has rejected the proposed ceasefire by the United States, and Tehran has made it clear that the Strait of Hormuz will only reopen to navigation if the US fully complies with its seven demands. Although previous reports of concessions between the US and Iran had raised market expectations for a breakthrough in negotiations, Iran's latest statement indicates that an agreement remains a long way off. Amid this news, oil prices initially fell sharply following optimistic expectations, before the decline narrowed. Meanwhile, military tensions between the US and Iran continue to escalate: Iran reported explosions and fires on three oil tankers and claimed to have shot down two US drones; the US confirmed its strike on Qeshm Island. A market prediction poll showed that only 13% of respondents believed the US and Iran could reach a final nuclear agreement by December 31, 2026, while 88% held a negative view. Iran's Position: Seven Conditions Not to be Compromised Iranian senior national security official Mohsen Rezaei stated on Tuesday that the US response to Iran's rights and demands lacked persuasiveness, and that the seven conditions proposed by Iran must be fully and clearly implemented before navigation in the Strait of Hormuz could be restored. It is noteworthy that Iran has not yet publicly released the specific text of these seven conditions. He emphasized that Iran will not compromise on these seven conditions, effectively denying previous reports in Gulf media that direct negotiations between the two sides had made progress. Rezaei wrote on social media that the seven conditions announced by Iran must be met before diplomatic negotiations can begin. He also warned that if Iran is attacked, it will follow the Supreme Leader's latest instructions to the armed forces and use new weapons to launch a devastating strike against the aggressor. A subsequent Iranian military spokesperson added a warning that if the US continued its offensive, Iran's retaliation would be far more intense and widespread than before, posing a risk of the conflict escalating. Affected by the news, Brent crude oil prices narrowed their losses, trading around $103.50 per barrel. Market Fluctuations: Concession Rumors Briefly Boosted Optimism Previously, Al-New Arab, citing mediators, reported that the US had approved the draft memorandum of understanding submitted by the Qatari delegation to Iran, suggesting that the US and Iran might make concessions on issues such as Iran's nuclear program and frozen assets. This news initially depressed oil prices, with WTI crude falling to a three-week low, followed by a brief optimistic rebound in futures markets. Trump confirmed the strike in a phone interview with Fox News: Iran was constructing an air defense facility at the time, and the US monitored the construction process. After completion, the US military launched the strike at night. Maritime Clashes: Oil Tankers Hit Mines, Drones Shot Down Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated that three oil tankers, transiting the Strait of Hormuz without permission, struck mines on Tuesday, causing explosions and fires. The tankers had their tracking systems disabled while transiting the southern waters of the strait, and no casualties have been reported so far. The IRGC also claimed on the same day that it shot down two US Lucas drones off the coast of Bandar Hammmir. Qeshm Island Conflict: US Characterizes it as Self-Defense This round of strikes began Monday night with a US operation against Qeshm Island. Multiple sources indicate that the US has been conducting limited strikes off Iran's southern coast in recent weeks. The US characterizes this attack as a defensive strike aimed at deterring Iranian attacks on ships navigating the strait. According to Axios News, citing US sources, on Monday night, the Iranian IRGC launched missiles from Qeshm Island at US military aircraft over the strait; US fighter jets subsequently destroyed the missile launcher in self-defense. If this claim is true, it means that Iran has been continuously attacking US military equipment patrolling the Strait of Hormuz for a long period, although many of these actions have not come to public attention. The Wall Street Journal reports that, unlike in the early stages of the conflict, the US is no longer publicly disclosing these attacks. US officials explained that the deliberate low-key approach to the strikes is to avoid signaling a resumption of large-scale warfare. The relevant news was concentrated on Tuesday, coinciding with the US midterm elections, and the market generally expects the Democrats to win both the House and Senate. Mediation Progress: Qatar Awaits Responses A senior Iranian official stated that the US and Iran are still far from reaching a ceasefire agreement. The Qatari mediation team has returned to Doha after concluding consultations in Tehran. It is expected that within the next 36 hours, both the US and Iran will respond to the new proposal put forward by the mediators. Qatar is intensifying its mediation efforts, hoping to bridge the differences between the two sides and prevent a further escalation of the conflict after the midterm elections. A spokesperson for the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that if there is absolutely no hope, the mediation negotiations will not continue, and Qatar, as a mediator, will not give up its efforts. Currently, the mediation team has presented a new proposal to advance negotiations and is awaiting evaluation and assessment from both the US and Iran.