Live Updates > Live Update Details
2026-11-04 17:52:26
[Democrats Win Both Houses of Congress; Shipping Market Focuses on Iran Situation and Straits of Hormuz] ⑴ The Democrats have won both houses of Congress. The House of Representatives gained 13 seats (228 to 139) and the Senate gained 7 seats (54 to 44). 68 House seats remain undecided. ⑵ The national election trend is consistent. Compared to the 2024 presidential election, Democrats lead by 14.7 percentage points in the Northeast, 14.5 percentage points in the South, 12.8 percentage points in the West, and 11.9 percentage points in the Midwest. In the South, with 41.9 million votes counted, the Republican lead has reversed to a 3.1 percentage point lead (up to 11.4 percentage points). ⑶ For the shipping market, the key issue is the impact of this on the situation in Iran. ⑷ The US launched a limited defensive strike on Qeshm Island on Tuesday, targeting surface-to-air missiles. Trump told the Financial Times that there were no immediate plans for a strike. Tehran stated that an agreement is still far off, and Qatar has intensified its mediation efforts. (5) The conflict itself remains unchanged. War powers and funding are slower-moving levers, expected to be used by the new Democratic Party. (6) If normal navigation in the Strait of Hormuz resumes—a highly hypothetical scenario—freight efficiency will improve, global ton-miles will decrease, and freight rates will fall. (7) The UK's Office of Maritime Trade Operations recorded over 30 incidents in October. The US vote, effectively a referendum, has not changed the hardline guerrilla tactics of Iran. (8) Headline risks remain high, currently more bearish than bullish for freight rates.
