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2026-11-04 23:48:25
[El Niño Continues to Strengthen, US Winter May Be the Warmest on Record] This winter is expected to be the warmest on record in the United States, leading to a significant drop in natural gas demand and reduced consumer use of natural gas for heating and power generation. This is primarily due to the continued strengthening of the El Niño phenomenon, which has fueled the most pessimistic expectations among natural gas traders for the second-largest commodity market since the COVID-19 pandemic. El Niño already put US natural gas producers and traders holding bullish positions at a disadvantage in October. Matt Rogers, president of Commodity Weather Group, stated that October was the third warmest October since records began in 1950, based on natural gas weighted heating degree days. Rogers indicated that this trend is expected to intensify further this month, with November poised to become the warmest November on record. The core winter period from December to February, and the entire winter heating season from November to March, are also expected to set warmest records on record for the natural gas market. According to the latest weekly data released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), fund managers have significantly increased their short positions in natural gas futures in anticipation of an unusually warm winter, reaching a record high. Simultaneously, their net short positions have also risen to their highest level since February 2020, reflecting extremely pessimistic market sentiment.
