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[ECB Wage Tracker, Slightly Upward in the First Half of 2027] ⑴ The ECB Wage Tracker has been updated to reflect the wage agreement signed in mid-October 2026, with the forward range extended to the end of September 2027. ⑵ The main tracker, including one-off payments and smoothed over 12 months, shows that wages under the agreement will grow by 2.3% in 2026, covering 46.2% of employees in participating countries. ⑶ The indicator is projected to be 2.7% in the second half of 2026, 2.8% in the first half of 2027, and will decrease to 2.4% in the third quarter of 2027, the latter based on still relatively limited employee coverage. ⑷ The lower figure for the first half of 2026 still reflects the mechanical downward pull from the one-off payments made in the second half of 2024 that were not repeated the following year; this effect will completely dissipate in the second half of 2026. ⑸ Compared to the data released in September 2026, the main tracker has revised upwards by an average of approximately 0.1 percentage points for the second half of 2026 and the first half of 2027. (6) The tracking metric for unsmoothed one-time payments was 2.4% in Q3 2027, lower than 2.7% in the first half of 2027 and the full year of 2026. (7) The tracking metric excluding one-time payments slowed from 2.9% in the first half of 2027 to 2.5% in Q3 2027, with an average of 2.6% in 2026, continuing to indicate limited room for one-time payments in recently signed collective bargaining agreements. (8) Excluding one-time payments, the metric averaged 2.8% in the first three quarters of 2027, indicating that permanent agreement wage growth was slightly higher than the full year of 2026. (9) The primary tracking metric is better suited to describing quarterly or monthly dynamics of agreement wages, while the metric for unsmoothed one-time payments is better suited to describing annual dynamics. (10) Employee coverage was 46.2% in 2026, decreasing to 31.8% in the first half of 2027 and further to 23.3% in Q3 2027, and is expected to gradually increase thereafter as more wage agreements are signed. (11) The European Central Bank pointed out that the wage tracking indicator may be revised, and the forward-looking portion should not be regarded as a forecast, but only reflects information from the current effective collective bargaining agreement. (12) This indicator is not perfectly synchronized with the official indicator of wage growth under the agreement, and it is normal for the two to deviate over time.