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2026-11-05 21:03:29
[State Street Strategist: Hawkish Decision, At Least One More Tightening Expected, February Likely Fully Priced In] ⑴ The head of macro strategy at State Street stated that this was a relatively hawkish result, with dissenting votes supporting a larger rate hike. President Bailey clearly stated that further rate hikes would be needed if energy prices persist, which to some extent provided a basis for the market to price in further rate increases. ⑵ The head stated that the longer the energy shock lasts and the more it transmits to overall inflation, the more likely some insurance measures will be needed; the question is the timing. ⑶ He stated that if energy prices remain high, interest rates will obviously need to be raised again; the question is how many times, which will drive the pound and interest rate markets in the coming weeks. ⑷ The head stated that it seems quite clear that there will be at least one more tightening, meaning that February is already fully priced in, as another rate hike this year is unlikely. After the February rate hike, it is necessary to observe whether the energy price shock continues.
