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[US Treasury Outlook: Election Shift Unlikely to Change Cycle, AI Bubble and Oil Prices Present Double Challenges] ⑴ Following the Democratic Party's major victory in the election, oil prices fell by nearly 9%, leading to a sharp drop in US Treasury yields on Wednesday. The benchmark 10-year yield fell by 6 basis points and again below 4.90%, suggesting the market believes a tougher Congress may prompt Trump to tone down his tariff rhetoric. ⑵ This optimism may be untenable. Trump has largely bypassed Congress in the past two years, and Tehran and its allies may be encouraged by the election results, making a renewed escalation of the situation more likely than less probable. ⑶ Oil prices appear to have found a technical bottom around $87, where the 100-day and 200-day moving averages converge, reinforcing the $87-$100 range. If Friday's key non-farm payroll and wage data show an unexpected upward trend, the 10-year yield could quickly rebound to around 5%. ⑷ Some argue that the current situation is more like the twilight of a cycle than a new dawn, with the aging business cycle and excessive expansion of the financial cycle overlapping. The artificial intelligence investment bubble amplifies this distortion, and the US has not experienced a downturn since the financial crisis, except for the pandemic recession. (5) The estimated $10 trillion investment in AI infrastructure by 2032 far exceeds previous technological revolutions. Hyperscale cloud vendors are shifting from positive to negative free cash flow, while financing costs remain high and borrowing demand is surging. (6) Reportedly, the cost of debt default insurance for Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Broadcom has reached record highs. CCC-rated pressure is spreading to single-B-rated debt, and the private credit default rate has risen to 6.3%. The US AI boom is increasingly reliant on debt financing, and the risks have already spread to pension funds, annuities, and banks. (7) A Democratic landslide victory may accelerate the retreat of AI deals. Texas, Georgia, and Ohio account for more than 40% of planned data center capacity, and newly elected Democratic governors may tighten scrutiny on permits, environmental regulations, and electricity pricing. (8) Congressional Democrats may also push for AI safety barriers, expand legal liability, and restrict data center expansion. OpenAI's latest commitment to community consultation and construction transparency shows that the industry has recognized the shift in the political winds. (9) Wall Street's narrative that the deadlock is beneficial and that growth will spread beyond artificial intelligence ignores the possibility of investigations, impeachment, government shutdowns, and debt ceiling negotiations. Trump's executive and veto powers remain significant obstacles to substantive policy changes. (10) Strategically, the 10-year yield is likely to trade between 5.05% and 4.80%, with a tactical selling point around 4.81% and a strategic buying point above 5%. Intraday focus should be on the 4.90% to 4.83% range. (11) Thursday's data includes the Challenger layoffs report, weekly initial jobless claims, and preliminary Q3 productivity and cost estimates. Several Fed officials will speak, and the Treasury will announce short-term debt issuance arrangements and conduct repurchase operations.