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Ahead of the non-farm payrolls report, the USD/JPY pair rebounded slightly from its weekly low, maintaining a range-bound trading pattern.

2026-11-06 13:48:30

During Friday's Asian trading session, the USD/JPY pair recovered slightly from its weekly low of 157.25, rising to around the 158 level and temporarily ending a two-day losing streak. However, ahead of the key US non-farm payroll data release, traders were reluctant to establish large directional positions, limiting the upside potential of the exchange rate. 图片点击可在新窗口打开查看 The non-farm payroll report will directly influence market pricing of the Federal Reserve's policy path, thus dominating the strength of the US dollar. The recent Asian market rebound was mainly driven by pre-event position rebalancing; the overall dollar trend remains weak. Given this fundamental background, aggressively bullish positions in USD/JPY are not advisable. The Democratic Party's landslide victory in the US midterm elections led the market to lower its expectations for renewed US military action against Iran, resulting in a sharp decline in oil prices, easing inflation concerns, and a reduction in market bets on a December Fed rate hike. A significant correction in US stocks led to a flow of funds into safe-haven US Treasuries, pushing yields to near two-month lows and suppressing the dollar's upward momentum. On the other hand, the yen received support from policy expectations. The minutes of the Bank of Japan's September monetary policy meeting showed that members unanimously agreed to continue raising policy rates and adjusting the easing力度 (intensity/scale) to solidify market expectations for a December rate hike, limiting a significant rebound in USD/JPY. On the daily chart, USD/JPY maintains a mildly bearish short-term pattern, with the price trading below the 200-day simple moving average at 158.66. This means that any rebound is likely to encounter selling pressure, and the larger-scale structure has not improved. Only a decisive break above 158.66 can alleviate downward pressure and open up further downside potential. On the downside, the weekly low of 157.25 forms the first level of support, followed by the psychological level of 157.00. The lower edge of the short-term range lies in the 156.50-156.60 area. A strong break below this range would trigger a new round of bearish signals, opening up further downside potential. On the 4-hour chart, the price has rebounded from its lows, and indicators have recovered somewhat from oversold conditions, but are still suppressed by key moving averages. This represents a pre-data release consolidation and has not yet formed a clear reversal. 图片点击可在新窗口打开查看 Editor's Summary: The USD/JPY pair saw a slight rebound due to pre-event position covering, but the sustainability of the rebound is questionable given the yen's support from expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike and the weak fundamentals of the US dollar. The short-term risk is a significantly stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data, pushing the pair above the 158.66 resistance level; a potential opportunity is weaker-than-expected employment data, causing the pair to retest the 156.50-156.60 support level. We await the direction after the non-farm payroll data is released, focusing on whether the 157.25-158.66 range is broken.
Risk Warning and Disclaimer
The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.

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