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The US dollar index rebounded from its lows, but this does not change its downward trend; it awaits the release of the non-farm payroll data.

2026-11-06 13:52:27

The US dollar index saw follow-up buying during Friday's Asian trading session, recovering from its lows since late September, reached around 101.80. Despite the rebound, the overall weekly performance still showed a slight decline, with traders remaining on the sidelines awaiting the key US non-farm payroll report for further market movement. 图片点击可在新窗口打开查看 The market expects October non-farm payrolls to increase by 65,000, higher than the previous figure of 29,000, with the unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are the key focus of this data, as the strength of wage inflation will directly influence the Fed's policy expectations, thus affecting the strength of dollar buying. Overnight, crude oil prices rebounded sharply, reigniting inflation concerns. The market still prices a near 70% probability of a Fed rate hike in December, pushing US Treasury yields slightly higher from the midweek lows triggered by the midterm elections, supporting the dollar index. Geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East also strengthens the dollar's safe-haven appeal. Trump stated on Thursday that the US might further strike Iran, given the significant differences between the US and Iran on nuclear issues and the Strait of Hormuz; however, Senate Democratic Leader Schumer publicly called for an end to the war with Iran. With mixed news, it is not yet possible to confirm that the dollar index has found a short-term bottom until strong and sustained buying is observed. On the 1-hour chart, the US dollar index has stabilized above the 100-hour exponential moving average at 101.62, maintaining a mildly bullish short-term tone. The price has recovered the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 101.69, which has now become support. On the upside, the first resistance is the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 101.84, followed by the 61.8% retracement at 101.99, the 78.6% retracement at 102.21, and a further target is the recent cycle high of 102.49. On the downside, the primary support is the recovered 38.2% retracement at 101.69, followed by the 100-hour EMA at 101.62; deeper support lies at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 101.50, and the key structural bottom at 101.20. A break below 101.20 would signal the failure of this recovery and a return of bearish dominance. On the 4-hour chart, prices have rebounded from a low point, and indicators have turned from weak to strong. However, the price has not yet completely broken free from the pressure from the previous decline, and the extent to which the rebound can continue depends on the results of the non-farm payroll data. 图片点击可在新窗口打开查看 Editor's Summary: The US dollar index underwent a technical correction ahead of the non-farm payrolls report. Rising US Treasury yields and geopolitical risk aversion provided support, but the Democratic Party's efforts to end the conflict limited the dollar's upside potential, leaving the market in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Short-term risks include significantly weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls and wage data, potentially causing the dollar to retest the 101.20 low. A potential opportunity lies in stronger-than-expected employment data, pushing the dollar index towards the resistance level around 102.21. The key focus is on a breakout from the 101.62-101.84 range; volatility is expected to increase significantly during the non-farm payrolls release period, so the focus should be on waiting for the data to be released.
Risk Warning and Disclaimer
The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.

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