On Monday (November 9th, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4069.30 per ounce. Gold prices fell on Friday as stronger-than-expected US non-farm payroll data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve might maintain higher interest rates for a longer period, pushing up the dollar and US Treasury yields. US crude oil was trading around $90.40 per barrel. US President Trump said he would soon decide whether to seek a peace agreement or destroy Iran's remaining forces, but US Secretary of State Rubio said indirect talks were unsuccessful and Iran's demands were unacceptable, keeping the market cautious.

Key Focus Today

stock market

U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, with the Nasdaq rising 1.1% to close at 24,579.43, the S&P 500 gaining 0.32% to close at 7,376.86, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.46% to close at 51,285.73. Technology stocks rebounded on Friday, recovering from the previous trading day's worst weekly decline in over a year, but the Nasdaq still fell for the fourth consecutive week, dropping 3.4% last week. The S&P 500 fell 2.7%, its worst weekly performance in over a year, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 4.2%, Nvidia rose 2.8%, AMD rose 11%, Tesla rose 4.2%, SpaceX rose 8.6%, and Airbnb jumped 12% after raising its 2026 revenue growth forecast. U.S. non-farm payrolls increased more than expected in October, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Traders' bets on a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve rose from 70% to 78%. Market participants believe that AI remains the dominant theme of this bull market, and copper price performance also reflects optimism about the prospects of AI infrastructure construction.

Gold Market

Gold prices fell on Friday, with spot gold down 0.44% to close at $4,070.75 per ounce, as stronger-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payroll data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a longer period, pushing up the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. Spot gold rose more than 5% last week, marking its best weekly performance since the end of August. The dollar rose 0.7% to its highest level since October 29, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield also rose. US non-farm payrolls increased more than expected in October, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. The CME FedWatch tool showed traders believed there was an 81% probability of a Fed rate hike in December, up from 72.8% before the report was released. In the physical market, falling gold prices spurred retail buying ahead of Diwali in India. Spot silver rose 0.25% to close at $51.91 per ounce, platinum rose 1.6% to $1541.42, and palladium fell 0.6% to $1024.59; all three saw weekly gains.

oil market

Oil prices fell on Friday, with WTI crude down 0.94% to settle at $90.34 a barrel and Brent crude down 1.16% to settle at $97.99 a barrel. U.S. President Trump said he would soon decide whether to seek a peace deal or destroy Iran’s remaining forces. Brent crude fell 12.78% this week, while WTI crude fell 12.25%. Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, said the market appears to be slightly retracing its "war premium." While the US midterm election results boosted hopes for a possible easing of tensions in Iran and increased oil exports from the region, they also heightened expectations of tighter US regulations on the artificial intelligence industry, leading to a sharp sell-off in tech stocks. In the oil market, signs of oversupply are becoming increasingly apparent amid shrinking demand, with the premium for benchmark Middle Eastern crude oil falling back to pre-conflict levels. A strong jobs report released by the US Labor Department last Friday, showing 165,000 new jobs added last month, also influenced futures prices. Data from the UK Maritime Safety Authority (UKMTO) shows that attacks on oil tankers continue to occur at near-record frequencies.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar index rose 0.68% to 102.28 on Friday, marking its biggest one-day gain in nearly five months, after a stronger-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report solidified market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike next month. Data from the U.S. Department of Labor showed that nonfarm payrolls surged by 165,000 last month, far exceeding the estimated 65,000. The September increase was revised upward to 60,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Following the report's release, CME Group's FedWatch tool showed that market expectations for a Fed rate hike of at least 25 basis points at the December meeting rose to around 80%. The euro fell 0.73% against the dollar to 1.11436, its biggest one-day drop since October 1st. U.S. Treasury yields rose after the jobs report, with the 10-year yield rising 1.6 basis points to 4.85% and the 2-year yield rising 4.1 basis points to 4.52%. This followed market concerns that stricter government regulations on artificial intelligence (AI) construction after the U.S. midterm elections would stifle economic growth. Lawmakers, congressional aides, and advocates stated that Democrats plan to introduce a large amount of new legislation targeting AI systems and data center construction after gaining control of Congress in January. Federal Reserve official Williams stated that economic growth is resilient but inflation is too high and must be brought back to 2%. Musalaim said inflation remains a top concern, and Daly stated that even with a "painful" sell-off in tech stocks, the Fed may still need to raise interest rates further. The pound plunged 0.76% against the dollar to 1.3355, its biggest one-day drop since September 23, and fell 0.34% last week. The dollar rose 0.54% against the yen to 158.52. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced plans to use proceeds from the Bank of Japan's ETF sales to fund its flagship investment project. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that he expects core inflation to remain near the 2% target but acknowledged "some upside risks."

International News

The US is forming "Iron Gate Task Force" to expand land trade restrictions on Iran. After months of naval blockade, the US military is preparing to establish a special task force to further restrict Iran's transport of advanced weapons systems and other sanctioned goods across its land borders and the Caspian Sea. A statement indicates that US Central Command plans to announce the task force's formation later Saturday, following previous reports. The task force, dubbed "Iron Gate Task Force," will be based in Tampa, Florida, and will coordinate operations with other US government agencies. In addition to monitoring weapons shipments, the task force will focus on dual-use items and sources of illicit income. Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command, stated in a statement that enhanced collaboration between Central Command and interagency partners will further weaken Iran's ability to finance terrorism, rebuild weapons factories, and replenish its military. US Central Command estimates that its naval blockade has prevented Iran from exporting more than $25 billion worth of crude oil. Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated at a war commemoration ceremony on the 8th that Israel's "mission against Iran is not yet complete." He said Iran is attempting to "restart the process of acquiring nuclear weapons" and is conducting "other activities that seriously threaten Israel's security," which Israel cannot accept and will "take necessary actions" to "preemptively" eliminate the threat. However, he provided no evidence of the threat or specified any concrete actions. The Israeli army will not withdraw from the occupied Gaza Strip, Lebanon, and parts of Syria. If Hezbollah in Lebanon joins forces with Iran to attack Israel, Israel will face "severe retaliation." Katz called on Israelis to "unite" when national security is threatened. Netanyahu on the 7th called on the opposition camp to form a "national unity government" with the Likud party and its political allies. (Xinhua) Iranian Revolutionary Guard: US Task Force Cannot Achieve Its Goal of Pressuring Iran According to Iran's Fars News Agency on the 8th, Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesman Mohbi stated that the United States cannot achieve its goal of exerting economic pressure on Iran through the "Iron Gate" task force plan. Mohbi said the "Iron Gate" plan was "nothing more than a word game," and the US could not achieve its goal of exerting enormous economic pressure on Iran through this plan; the Iranian economy would not collapse. (Xinhua) Protests erupted in France for the fourth consecutive weekend . On November 7, protests against rising living costs and reduced public services erupted in many parts of France for the fourth consecutive weekend. Although the number of demonstrators was lower than in previous weeks, some protesters clashed with police in Paris. Some threw objects at security personnel and set off homemade fireworks, prompting police to use tear gas. Others set fire to garbage cans and attacked police. After nightfall, some protesters marched to the Place de la Bastille in Paris. The French Ministry of the Interior stated that a total of 146,000 people participated in the demonstrations across France, including 46,000 in Paris. However, the unions gave figures of 250,000 nationwide and 75,000 in Paris. These figures are lower than the scale of the demonstrations in the previous three weekends, although the French General Confederation of Labour (CGT) had just organized a large-scale strike on November 5. (CCTV International News) Iran Lifts Missile Range Restrictions The US military has formed a task force to prevent Iran from "cross-border arms transport." A spokesperson for the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on the 7th that Iran has lifted missile range restrictions and will strike locations the enemy cannot anticipate. He warned that if the US miscalculates again, Iran's next strike will be even more severe. On the same day, the US Central Command announced that it had ordered the formation of a task force to prevent Iran from transporting advanced weapons and other supplies across borders. Regarding the progress of the US-Iran ceasefire, the latest news indicates that US Vice President Vance has begun to push for a new agreement with Iran behind the scenes. On the evening of the 7th, similar loud explosions were heard in several parts of Iran; the specific cause and related details are still unclear. (CCTV News) Iranian President Says Efforts to Escape "Neither War Nor Peace" Situation Iranian President Pezechzian said on Saturday that the Iranian government is working to extricate the country from the current "neither war nor peace" situation while maintaining national dignity. "The government is working to ensure the country emerges from this 'neither war nor peace' situation with dignity," Pezzichian said. He added, "However, this should not prevent us from developing careful and detailed plans to manage and conserve fuel and energy consumption." Rubio stated that indirect talks were ineffective and Iranian demands were unacceptable. US Secretary of State Rubio stated that talks conducted through intermediaries were unsuccessful, and that the demands made by Iran were completely unacceptable, infuriating, and some even absurd. Rubio said that sometimes diplomatic solutions don't work; however, the US will still seek diplomatic solutions if the opportunity still exists.

Domestic News

He Lifeng Holds Video Call with US Treasury Secretary Bessenter and Trade Representative Greer On the evening of November 6, Beijing time, He Lifeng, Vice Premier of the State Council and China's lead negotiator for China-US economic and trade relations, held a video call with the US lead negotiators, US Treasury Secretary Bessenter and Trade Representative Greer. The two sides conducted a frank, in-depth, and constructive exchange on important economic and trade issues of mutual concern, focusing on implementing the important consensus reached at the meetings between the Chinese and US heads of state in Beijing and Washington and the outcomes of economic and trade consultations. China expressed serious concern regarding the recent US trade restrictions on China. Both sides agreed that, under the strategic guidance of the two heads of state, they would continue to leverage the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism, continuously strengthen cooperation, properly manage differences, promote the sustained, stable, and positive development of China-US economic and trade relations, and contribute to building a "constructive strategic and stable China-US relationship based on respect, fairness, and equality." (Xinhua) China Development Bank Issues Over 480 Billion Yuan in Loans to Manufacturing Enterprises in the First 10 Months of This Year According to the China Development Bank, since the beginning of this year, the bank has comprehensively utilized diversified financial products to provide manufacturing enterprises with full-cycle investment and financing support covering technology research and development, capacity building, and daily operations. From January to October, over 480 billion yuan in loans were issued to the manufacturing sector, primarily supporting the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, the cultivation and expansion of emerging industries, and forward-looking planning for future industries, effectively promoting the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry. The head of the Industrial and Technological Innovation Department of the China Development Bank (CDB) stated that, going forward, CDB will focus on intelligentization, greening, and integration, strengthen its functional positioning, optimize comprehensive financial services, focus on key areas and weak links, serve major national strategies, promote key special projects and major initiatives, and continuously increase investment and financing support for the manufacturing industry. This will contribute to accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing as its backbone and advancing China's modernization. (CCTV News) Shanghai Stock Exchange: Total Market Capitalization of Listed Companies Exceeds 65 Trillion Yuan The latest data released by the Shanghai Stock Exchange shows that, as of now, there are over 2,300 listed companies on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a total market capitalization exceeding 65 trillion yuan. Among them, nearly 100 leading listed companies in the A-share market have a market capitalization exceeding 100 billion yuan, with a combined market capitalization exceeding 34.8 trillion yuan. Among the leading companies on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, technology manufacturing enterprises are accelerating their growth in fields such as artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, and advanced manufacturing, becoming an important force for the high-quality development of the capital market. (CCTV News)