A key variable in the current US economy is interest rates. The continuously rising interest rates have significantly altered ordinary people's asset perceptions.

The impact of high interest rates is intensifying: Americans are letting go of their obsession with real estate investment.

For a long time, buying a house has been a symbol of the "American Dream" for many Americans, with the public generally assuming that houses are reliable appreciating assets. However, the feeling of high interest rates is becoming increasingly strong, and ordinary people are slowly shifting their reliance on real estate as an asset. A survey by the National Association of Realtors shows that among recent homebuyers, only 32% of respondents believe that investing in real estate is better than investing in stocks. This is a significant drop compared to 52% in 2006. The most direct reason for this change is the continuously rising mortgage interest rates. Currently, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has reached 7.18%, significantly increasing the monthly payment burden. The market no longer believes that low interest rates will return quickly, and institutions generally predict that housing prices will hardly see the rapid rise of the past in the next five to ten years. In contrast, the S&P 500 continues to reach new highs, further widening the investment perception gap between the two. More and more people feel that taking on decades of high mortgage payments to buy a house may not yield returns comparable to investing in the stock market, but this does not mean that the housing market will collapse. Experts judge that the market is simply squeezing out the past bubble and returning to normal. Buying a house still has residential value, and the demand for owner-occupied housing will not disappear. It's just that the investment attribute of real estate has cooled down significantly in a high-interest-rate environment.

Interest rate hikes have reached a bottleneck: inflation persists, but the reasons for further tightening are diminishing.

On one hand, inflation remains high, forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to suppress prices; on the other hand, the path of interest rate hikes is slowly reaching a bottleneck, showing signs of a reversal. The level of interest rates is primarily determined by the Federal Reserve, but the midterm election results have altered the political environment in which the Fed operates. With the Democrats winning the Senate, it has become significantly more difficult for the president to interfere with Fed personnel appointments and force the Fed to cut interest rates. Fed Chairman Warsh has more room to maintain a tighter policy and bring inflation back to the target level; the Fed has already raised interest rates once in September. However, the changes brought about by the election are not limited to personnel maneuvering; they will also affect inflation through industry regulation. AI data centers have been a major engine of investment for US companies in recent years. These projects consume enormous amounts of electricity and building materials, continuously driving up demand for energy and infrastructure materials, thus supporting inflation. With the Democrats winning in several states with concentrated computing power, the market expects to tighten regulations on data centers and slow down the pace of construction. Once the expansion of AI infrastructure cools down, the demand for energy and building materials will weaken, easing upward pressure on prices. This creates a contradiction: reduced external political resistance makes the Federal Reserve more willing to raise interest rates; however, the potential cooling effect on the industrial sector reduces the necessity for continued rate hikes. The market widely expects the Fed to raise rates again in December. However, whether to continue tightening will depend on continued monitoring of inflation and employment. The US job market remains strong, providing a reason for rate hikes; if inflation gradually declines as the industrial sector cools, the pace of rate hikes will slow.

Stocks and real estate are both under pressure, and mainstream assets all have hidden risks.

From the current perspective, neither stocks nor real estate, the two mainstream asset classes, can be considered safe choices. Real estate has lost its high-yield aura, high monthly payments lock up long-term cash flow, and the potential for price increases is limited. The current rally in US stocks is highly tied to the AI sector; whether it can be sustained remains to be seen and will depend on subsequent profit realization. Many companies that appear to have low P/E ratios rely on short-term capital expenditures and order book growth, which lacks sustainability and can easily mislead investors.

In summary: With the changing landscape, the investment value of gold has become more apparent.

Both threads ultimately revolve around the core issue of interest rates. The Federal Reserve's continued tightening and rising borrowing costs are the root cause of the fading appeal of real estate investment; conversely, cooling real estate demand and a slowdown in AI infrastructure expansion will dampen economic activity and inflation, limiting the Fed's room for further rate hikes. Ordinary people are weighing the pros and cons between real estate and the stock market, while the Fed is cautiously navigating between curbing inflation and preventing an economic slowdown. In this context, both traditional mainstream asset classes have significant weaknesses, making gold's safe-haven value worth re-evaluating. As the room for interest rate hikes becomes increasingly limited and the economy faces downward pressure, gold gradually reveals its allocation value. It does not rely on corporate profits and serves as a hedging option during periods of peak interest rates and rising economic uncertainty.