On Thursday (November 12, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $3,981 per ounce, as higher-than-expected US inflation data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve policymakers boosted the dollar and increased the likelihood of a larger rate hike next month, putting continued pressure on gold prices. US crude oil was trading around $86.27 per barrel. Oil prices rebounded on Tuesday, but on Wednesday, Iranian security officials stated that Iran would not allow any enriched nuclear material to leave the country, raising market concerns about supply.

Key Focus Today

stock market

U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 rising 1.31% to 7619.38, the Nasdaq gaining 1.60% to 25466.19, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing 0.49% to 52486.49. CoreWeave's earnings report eased investor concerns about the sustainability of the AI rally, sending its stock soaring 24.7% and announcing it would achieve profitability in the first half of 2028 on adjusted figures. This boosted Nebius by 15.4% and Applied Digital by 7.4%. Nvidia stabilized after two consecutive days of sharp declines, wiping out approximately $430 billion in market capitalization. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 5.7%, with all its components rising. The S&P technology sector led the gains with a 2.7% increase, while the VIX fell for the fourth consecutive day to 17.49. The market continues to oscillate between "AI is good" and "AI is not so good." The Democratic midterm election victory raised concerns about AI regulation, while falling oil prices encouraged investors. However, high inflation pushed up U.S. Treasury yields and solidified expectations of a Fed rate hike next month. Traders have fully priced in at least a 25 basis point rate hike, with a 10.4% probability of a 50 basis point hike. Bank of America stated that investors, primarily institutional, remained net buyers through ETFs during last week's sell-off, and the Anthropic IPO, targeting a $1.4 trillion valuation, is likely to attract record retail buying.

Gold Market

Spot gold fell 1.12% on Wednesday to settle at $3,987.69 an ounce, as stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve policymakers boosted the dollar and increased the likelihood of a larger rate hike next month. Tuesday's data showed that the US October CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding economists' forecasts of 0.3%. Federal Reserve Governor Waller had previously stated that if the core inflation rate in October reached 0.3%, he would consider a half-percentage-point rate hike in December. The market priced in an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, while bets on a 50-basis-point hike rose from zero before the CPI release to 12.9%, pushing the dollar index to its highest level since April 2025. However, StoneX senior market strategist Bob Haberkorn pointed out that China and other central banks are still actively buying gold; spot palladium rose 1.8% to $1043.00 per ounce, hitting its highest level since October 22nd during the session.

oil market

Oil prices rose on Wednesday, with Brent crude up 0.64% to settle at $9,261 a barrel, while WTI crude dipped slightly to settle at $86.42. The price action was fueled by concerns about supply following a statement by Iran's security chief that the country would not allow any enriched nuclear material to leave. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo stated that oil prices are being supported by fading hopes for an easing of tensions; despite a significant increase in OPEC+ crude oil production in October, driven by a surge in Saudi output, there are few signs of abating the supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Data from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy shows that 37 ships were attacked in October, the highest monthly total since the outbreak of the war in February. Since the beginning of the month, Brent crude and U.S. crude prices have fallen by approximately 21% and 17%, respectively. Iranian forces' attack on the ship navigation system on Oman's Dalmatar Island in the Strait of Hormuz also demonstrates its ability to strike infrastructure used to restore oil shipping in the Gulf. Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 9 million barrels last week, while EIA inventory data was postponed to Friday due to the Veterans Day holiday on Wednesday.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar index rose 0.64% on Wednesday to close at 102.90, buoyed by higher U.S. inflation data and hawkish comments from policymakers, which fueled growing market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike. CME's FedWatch tool showed that after U.S. consumer price increases exceeded expectations for the third consecutive month in October, traders' bets on a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in December rose to 87% from about 70% a month ago, with rising expectations supporting the dollar. The dollar rose 0.69% against the yen to 159.84, its highest level in more than two months and nearing the psychological level of 160 yen per dollar. The euro fell 0.66% against the dollar to 1.1088, its lowest level since May 2025. The pound fell 0.50% to $1.33, hovering near a two-week low. The dollar rose 0.93% against the Swiss franc to 0.833, after hitting its highest level since mid-October. Recent comments from Federal Reserve Governor Waller and Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Logan have both indicated concerns about high inflation and hinted at a possible 50-basis-point rate hike. Goldman Sachs currently expects rate hikes in December and March, while Deutsche Bank expects rate hikes in December, January, and March. Except for the Australian dollar and the Norwegian krone, most developed market currencies have weakened against the dollar so far this year, as widening interest rate differentials have boosted the dollar. Some analysts also attribute this year's dollar strength to safe-haven inflows triggered by the US-Israel war on Iran.

International News

Report: Vance Considers Direct Talks with Iranian Hardliner to Push for an End to the War According to US and Middle Eastern officials and sources familiar with the negotiations, US Vice President Vance is considering a face-to-face meeting with a senior Iranian security official. He has become a key figure in the US negotiations with Iran, striving to end the war seen as a drag on the Republican Party. US and Middle Eastern officials stated that President Trump recently told senior aides and foreign colleagues that he is open to restarting negotiations with Vance and has granted him negotiating authority. US officials emphasized that discussions regarding sending Vance to meet directly with Iranian officials are still in the preliminary stages. Vance wrote to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council and a hardliner, in October proposing a meeting. A date for the talks has not yet been set, but both countries are exploring follow-up arrangements through mediators and allies. US officials stated that Vance's recent activity in Iranian foreign affairs has surpassed that of special envoys Steve Vitkov and Jared Kushner, who are also mediating the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Sources say Vance met with the Qatari Prime Minister on Monday morning, and the two subsequently met with Trump and other White House officials. Trump praised the talks as very successful. Related sources indicate that Doha is considered a potential venue for the next phase of negotiations if Vance reaches an agreement with Iranian officials. US Central Command: US Military Strictly Enforcing Maritime Blockade Against Iran On November 11, local time, the US Central Command stated that the US military continues round-the-clock operations to ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open to commercial shipping. At the same time, the US military is strictly enforcing a tight maritime blockade against Iran and is cooperating with relevant US government departments to prevent the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from using land routes and the Caspian Sea to transfer advanced weapons systems, dual-use technologies, sanctioned materials, or conduct "illegal financial transactions." (CCTV News) Iranian Parliament Speaker: US Must Meet Seven Conditions Proposed by Iran On November 11, local time, Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf stated that Iran has given the US a clear and straightforward answer, outlining Iran's legitimate demands. To date, the US has not given any official or specific response to the information and proposals submitted by Iran. Kalibaf emphasized that the US must fully implement the seven conditions put forward by Iran if the Strait of Hormuz is to be reopened and negotiations resume. (CCTV News) US Military Aircraft Reportedly Withdrawn from UK Bases On November 10th local time, according to US sources, the US Air Force has withdrawn some military aircraft from RAF Mildenhall in the UK. Reports indicate that approximately 10 KC-135 tankers and 3 Osprey tiltrotor aircraft flew from RAF Mildenhall to Germany, Spain, and other bases in the UK. The US military has not yet confirmed this. US media reports suggest that the US military's decision to redeploy aircraft may be related to potential security threats. (CCTV News) Rezaei: If the US Aggresses Again, Iran Will Strike Long-Range US Bases On November 11th, Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated that if the US makes a mistake and launches an attack on Ghazan, Iran's retaliation will not be limited to nearby US bases but will also target all long-range US bases. "I am referring to those remote U.S. military facilities that have not previously been targeted by Iran." If U.S. warplanes take off from remote military bases and bomb Iran, Iran will also strike those bases. Iran advises all countries with U.S. military bases not to cooperate with any U.S. military aggression against Iran. "Any location where U.S. warplanes take off will be considered a threat to Iran," Rezaei said. He also stated that Iran is determined to establish an alliance of eight Persian Gulf states, hoping the alliance will cover cooperation in the economic and security fields and involve multi-level collaboration. (CCTV International News) Nvidia's board of directors is reportedly considering removing CEO Jensen Huang, causing its stock price to plummet 9% in after-hours trading. According to the Wall Street Journal, citing sources, Nvidia's board of directors is preparing to remove founder and CEO Jensen Huang, with a meeting possibly scheduled for Thursday to decide his fate. Previously, the New York Times reported that Huang had an extramarital affair with an Nvidia executive who reported directly to him. Affected by the removal news, Nvidia's U.S. stock fell more than 9% in after-hours trading. Nvidia has not yet confirmed the relevant information.