On Friday (November 13, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $3,877 per ounce. Gold prices fell nearly 3% on Thursday, hitting a one-year low of $3,852.35 per ounce, as fading hopes for Middle East peace led to higher oil prices, exacerbating market concerns about rising inflation and interest rates. Meanwhile, the departure of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang sparked market concerns about the AI industry. Trump's statement on social media that the US did not need a deal with Iran dashed hopes for ending the conflict and helped oil prices rise on Thursday, with US crude oil currently trading around $88.85 per barrel.

Key Focus Today

stock market

U.S. stocks closed lower on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.36% to 52,297.09, the S&P 500 fell 0.35% to 7,592.40, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.39% to 25,366.09. Nvidia shares fell 4.3% after the departure of CEO Jensen Huang, having earlier fallen nearly 12% intraday. However, retail investors bought approximately $111 million worth of Nvidia stock in the first half hour of trading, marking the largest opening purchase for the company. The S&P 500 Energy Index rose 1.5%, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains and becoming the best-performing sector among the 11 S&P 500 sectors. The rise in oil prices was attributed to Trump's statement that the U.S. did not need to reach a deal with Iran. Global AI-related stocks generally declined, with Nebius plunging 16.8% due to its earnings report and outlook. However, Broadcom, AMD, and Alphabet rose, becoming one of the main supports for the S&P 500. The overwhelming Democratic victory in the midterm elections sparked concerns about AI regulation. Nvidia appointed CFO Colette Kress as interim CEO, and its financing arrangements are facing stricter scrutiny. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 0.5%, after surging 17.2% in the previous four days. The market awaits Friday's PPI data. Previously, the CPI was higher than expected, and the market had fully priced in the expectation of at least a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December, with a 15% probability of a 50 basis point hike. Cleveland Fed President Hammark stated that there was no need to shift to a more aggressive rate hike path, while San Francisco Fed President Daly said that further rate hikes might be needed but there was no urgency.

Gold Market

Spot gold fell 2.76% on Thursday to settle at $3,877.84 an ounce, marking its third consecutive day of decline and hitting a more than one-year low, as fading hopes for Middle East peace led to higher oil prices, exacerbating market concerns about rising inflation and interest rates. Trump's social media post stating that the US doesn't need a deal with Iran dashed hopes of ending the conflict. David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures, said rising energy prices continue to justify the Fed's hawkish stance, and high interest rates are detrimental to gold. Jim Wyckoff, an analyst at American Gold Exchange, noted that Tuesday's strong US inflation data, hawkish comments from Fed officials this week, and the dollar's rise to a near 19-month high all weighed on gold prices. Traders expect an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed in December, and the likelihood of a 50 basis point hike has also increased; rising interest rates reduce the attractiveness of non-yielding gold. The departure of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has sparked concerns about the AI giant's future and could have a profound impact on US chip export policies. Investors are awaiting Friday's US PPI data. Spot silver touched its lowest point since November 4th in early trading, closing down 3.12% at $50.05 per ounce, while spot platinum touched its lowest point since November 6th, falling 1.2% to $1518.49.

oil market

Oil prices jumped on Thursday, with WTI crude rising 2.64% to settle at $88.70 a barrel and Brent crude rising 3.38% to settle at $95.74 a barrel, after US President Trump posted on social media that the US does not need a deal with Iran. Previously, the Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed to have attacked a pumping station on Saudi Arabia's east-west oil pipeline, an oil facility in the Red Sea city of Yanbu, and a Saudi Aramco building in Riyadh. The Saudi-led military coalition subsequently claimed to have intercepted and destroyed two drones launched by the group. The Iranian military stated that four oil tankers were attacked by explosions in the Strait of Hormuz after ignoring warnings. Ukraine also stated that its drones attacked the port of Ust-Luga on Russia's Baltic coast, causing fires and damaging parts of its oil storage network, marking the latest attack against Russian energy infrastructure. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an unexpected rise in U.S. crude oil and fuel inventories last week, driven by weak demand for refined products and a surge in crude oil imports. Timothy Snyder, chief economist at Matador Economics, stated that retaliatory clashes between Russia and Ukraine, as well as attacks on shipping by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, are beginning to put upward pressure on oil prices, and investors seem tired of the same old rhetoric about the prospects for peace.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar index rose 0.27% on Thursday to close at 103.17, its highest level in about 19 months, as investors reassessed the Federal Reserve's policy path as hawkish, pushing up U.S. Treasury yields. Federal Reserve officials warned this week that inflation remains high, with some hinting at a 50-basis-point rate hike if price pressures do not ease. Strong U.S. inflation data on Tuesday reinforced this view, prompting traders to raise their expectations for further policy tightening. Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structured products at Moneycorp, said the dollar's strength is almost entirely based on expectations of a Fed rate hike. Federal funds futures are highly correlated with the dollar's movements, and they are currently at high levels due to stronger-than-expected CPI data and hawkish comments from several Fed officials. The CME FedWatch tool shows investors expect a near 85% probability of a December rate hike. The two-year Treasury yield was last quoted at 4.867%, up 13.96 basis points, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose 12.39 basis points to 5.113%. Some brokerages, including Goldman Sachs, expect another rate hike early next year in addition to the December hike. The euro fell 0.31% against the dollar to $1.1054, its lowest level since April 2025, while the dollar rose 0.04% against the yen, hitting a two-month high of 160.04. Japanese Finance Minister Atsushi Mimura again warned of excessive exchange rate volatility on Thursday, saying, "It's too early to forget what happened this summer." With the dollar/yen pair rising back to the key level of 160, many analysts expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again as early as next month. Data released on Thursday showed that Japan's wholesale prices rose faster than expected in October, accelerating to 7.1% year-on-year, up from 6.8% in September. Goldman Sachs analysts said the yen's overall weakness this week was mainly due to the dollar's performance, but from a trade-weighted exchange rate perspective, the yen is currently below pre-intervention levels reported in January and September, meaning the threshold for actual intervention this year remains far off.

International News

Trump Says No Need for Iran Deal, Demands Vance Focus on Domestic Issues US President Donald Trump stated on the 12th that the US does not need a deal with Iran and instructed Vice President Vance to concentrate all his efforts on domestic anti-corruption and crime issues. Trump posted on social media that day, saying he had asked Vance to "focus all his energy on the serious corruption and crime problems in Democratic-governed cities and states," adding, "We don't need any deal with Iran. Those days are long gone. We have hundreds of billions of dollars in their hands and control their (Hormuz) Strait." (Xinhua) Trump's Son-in-Law Jared Kushner Says Multilateral Talks on Russia-Ukraine to Be Held Next Week On the 12th local time, Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner stated before leaving Russia that multilateral talks will be held next week, and everything discussed by US negotiators during their meeting with Putin will influence the upcoming multilateral talks. However, he did not specify the exact time, location, or participants of the multilateral talks. US Presidential Envoy Witkov stated that European countries will participate in the next round of multilateral talks. On March 12, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with visiting US Presidential Envoy Sergei Witkov and US President Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner. During the meeting, Witkov said that Trump had asked him to convey to Putin that "ending the conflict in Ukraine as soon as possible is crucial." Witkov hoped that this meeting with Putin would facilitate a new round of multilateral talks involving European representatives. Kushner expressed his hope that the meeting would discuss ways and opportunities to end the conflict. The European side has expressed its willingness to participate in the talks and end the conflict. (CCTV News) The Iranian Experts Conference called for consideration of withdrawing from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. According to a report by the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting on March 12, the Iranian Experts Conference issued a statement that day calling on relevant departments to consider withdrawing from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, re-examine the national defense strategy, and establish necessary deterrent capabilities. The statement said that repeated threats from hostile forces, especially those targeting Iran's nuclear capabilities, indicate that Iran can no longer place hope in international institutions with relevant responsibilities. The statement said that if the enemy launches another attack, the Iranian armed forces will respond swiftly and effectively, without geographical limitations. (Xinhua) Houthi Rebels Claim Strikes on Saudi Oil Facilities The Houthi rebels in Yemen issued a statement on the evening of the 12th local time, claiming that they had carried out two military operations against Saudi oil facilities that day. The first operation used drones to strike Pump Station 7 of the Saudi East-West Pipeline, and the second operation used ballistic missiles to strike oil facilities in Yanbu. Both operations successfully achieved their objectives. The statement also claimed that Saudi Arabia's claim of intercepting two missiles over Mecca was a serious slander, and the Houthi rebels denied launching any missiles or drones towards the two holy religious sites of Mecca and Medina. (CCTV News) Nvidia's Jensen Huang Resigns as President, CEO, and Director Nvidia's board of directors announced today that Jensen Huang has resigned from his positions as president, chief executive officer, and director, effective immediately. Colette Kress, the company's current executive vice president and chief financial officer, will serve as interim chief executive officer. Kress will concurrently serve as executive vice president, chief financial officer, and interim CEO until a formal successor is determined. The Board of Directors has initiated the selection process for a permanent CEO, considering both internal and external candidates. The Board appointed Harvey C. Jones as the first-ever Chairman of the Board in Nvidia's history. Jones has over 30 years of experience as an entrepreneur, technology executive, and venture capitalist, and previously served as CEO and Executive Chairman of Synopsys. Nvidia stated that Jensen Huang has made profound contributions to Nvidia, which is now one of the world's most influential technology companies. The Board and the company thank Huang for his immeasurable contributions to the company and the industry. Nvidia's default risk remains near record high. On Thursday, the cost of default protection for Nvidia's debt remained near record levels. This followed reports of two extramarital affairs, prompting bond traders to urgently price in the impact of Huang's resignation, a key figure in the AI infrastructure wave. Data from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) shows that Nvidia's five-year debt default protection rate fell from a daily high of 144.5 basis points to an annualized rate of 143.16 basis points, but still rose overall for the day. Traders noted that in contrast, default protection costs for other cloud providers such as Meta, Broadcom, and AMD have declined, with the market anticipating these companies may benefit from Nvidia's turmoil. Although Nvidia's CDS costs have more than tripled since the middle of the year, the swap price is only about half that of lower-rated cloud providers like SpaceX and Oracle. The probability of a Fed rate hike in December is 100%, with the probability of a 50 basis point hike rising to 15.3%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed in December is 84.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 15.3%. The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by January is 24.4%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 64.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate hike is 10.9%.