Gold gains narrowed: Mixed US PPI data failed to alleviate market concerns about continued tightening by the Federal Reserve.
2026-11-14 00:20:30
On Friday (November 13), spot gold briefly surged above $3,900 before retreating. On Thursday, gold prices dipped to $3,852, their lowest level since October 2025. Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials continued to fuel market bets on prolonged monetary tightening, overshadowing the impact of the mixed U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) report. 
Spot gold traded around $3,880 during the session, with a cumulative decline of over 4% this week. US October PPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, lower than the market expectation of 0.4%, and the previous month's value was 1.4%; PPI rose 6.5% year-on-year, higher than the previous value of 6.3%, but slightly lower than the expected 6.6%. Core PPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, a slowdown from the previous month's 0.8%, and core PPI remained at 5.0% year-on-year, both in line with expectations. The US dollar index (DXY) was basically flat during the day, trading around 103.19, slightly lower than the previous 19-month high of 103.30, and the dollar index is on track for a third consecutive weekly gain. The strengthening dollar: Fed rate hike expectations push up short-term US Treasury yields ING analysts said that driven by macro factors, the dollar has experienced a strong upward trend this week, and the market is rapidly repricing the Fed's short-term interest rate path. Analysts noted, "Since Fed official Waller's comments on Tuesday morning regarding discussions about a 50 basis point rate hike in December, short-term US yields have risen by nearly 40 basis points." Influenced by these comments, ING pointed out, "The market is now pricing in the possibility of consecutive rate hikes in December and January, and expects the total Fed rate hikes in this round to reach 85 basis points." A stronger dollar increases the cost of buying gold for holders of other currencies; rising US Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, a non-interest-bearing asset. Fed officials warn: Inflation remains high The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) released earlier this week showed that the overall CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month in October, higher than the expected 0.3%; the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.2%. Chicago Fed President Goolsby said on Friday that the trend of inflation will determine the path of interest rates, and he agreed that the Fed "still has work to do" in suppressing inflation. Cleveland Fed President Hammark said on Thursday that inflationary pressures are "heading in the wrong direction" and the Fed needs to adjust policy to a more restrictive range to push inflation back to the 2% target. San Francisco Fed President Daly echoed this sentiment, suggesting that "further tightening is still needed." Dallas Fed President Logan suggested on Tuesday that the central bank needs at least two more 25-basis-point rate hikes to suppress inflation. With hopes for a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran fading, rising energy prices are likely to continue pushing up inflation. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil surged over 3% on Thursday after US President Trump stated that the US does not need an agreement with Iran to end the conflict. Technical Analysis: Gold prices fell below a key daily simple moving average, indicating a continuation of the downtrend. 
On the daily chart, spot gold continues its short-term downtrend, with prices consistently trading below the 21-day, 50-day, and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 37, below the midline of 50; the MACD indicator is negative. Both indicators are releasing weak signals, although the current oversold level is not yet extreme. The first resistance level is around $3900, the next psychological level is $4000, and further up is the 21-day moving average at $4030, which will likely limit any significant rebound in gold prices. Further upward movement faces stronger resistance from the 50-day moving average at $4154 and the 100-day moving average at $4197. On the downside, Thursday's low of $3852 provides immediate support, followed by the psychological level of $3800. A break below $3800 could trigger a deeper decline in gold prices.
Spot gold traded around $3,880 during the session, with a cumulative decline of over 4% this week. US October PPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, lower than the market expectation of 0.4%, and the previous month's value was 1.4%; PPI rose 6.5% year-on-year, higher than the previous value of 6.3%, but slightly lower than the expected 6.6%. Core PPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, a slowdown from the previous month's 0.8%, and core PPI remained at 5.0% year-on-year, both in line with expectations. The US dollar index (DXY) was basically flat during the day, trading around 103.19, slightly lower than the previous 19-month high of 103.30, and the dollar index is on track for a third consecutive weekly gain. The strengthening dollar: Fed rate hike expectations push up short-term US Treasury yields ING analysts said that driven by macro factors, the dollar has experienced a strong upward trend this week, and the market is rapidly repricing the Fed's short-term interest rate path. Analysts noted, "Since Fed official Waller's comments on Tuesday morning regarding discussions about a 50 basis point rate hike in December, short-term US yields have risen by nearly 40 basis points." Influenced by these comments, ING pointed out, "The market is now pricing in the possibility of consecutive rate hikes in December and January, and expects the total Fed rate hikes in this round to reach 85 basis points." A stronger dollar increases the cost of buying gold for holders of other currencies; rising US Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, a non-interest-bearing asset. Fed officials warn: Inflation remains high The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) released earlier this week showed that the overall CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month in October, higher than the expected 0.3%; the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.2%. Chicago Fed President Goolsby said on Friday that the trend of inflation will determine the path of interest rates, and he agreed that the Fed "still has work to do" in suppressing inflation. Cleveland Fed President Hammark said on Thursday that inflationary pressures are "heading in the wrong direction" and the Fed needs to adjust policy to a more restrictive range to push inflation back to the 2% target. San Francisco Fed President Daly echoed this sentiment, suggesting that "further tightening is still needed." Dallas Fed President Logan suggested on Tuesday that the central bank needs at least two more 25-basis-point rate hikes to suppress inflation. With hopes for a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran fading, rising energy prices are likely to continue pushing up inflation. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil surged over 3% on Thursday after US President Trump stated that the US does not need an agreement with Iran to end the conflict. Technical Analysis: Gold prices fell below a key daily simple moving average, indicating a continuation of the downtrend. On the daily chart, spot gold continues its short-term downtrend, with prices consistently trading below the 21-day, 50-day, and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 37, below the midline of 50; the MACD indicator is negative. Both indicators are releasing weak signals, although the current oversold level is not yet extreme. The first resistance level is around $3900, the next psychological level is $4000, and further up is the 21-day moving average at $4030, which will likely limit any significant rebound in gold prices. Further upward movement faces stronger resistance from the 50-day moving average at $4154 and the 100-day moving average at $4197. On the downside, Thursday's low of $3852 provides immediate support, followed by the psychological level of $3800. A break below $3800 could trigger a deeper decline in gold prices.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
