The super week begins, the US dollar, gold and US bonds may experience three-line fluctuations!
2025-07-28 20:08:49
Recently, the United States and Europe have reached a tariff agreement with a tariff rate of 15%, which is the same as the previous agreement between the United States and Japan. The market generally interprets this as a positive signal that the trade environment is stabilizing. In sharp contrast, there has been no substantial breakthrough between the United States and India and the United States and South Korea. Considering that US President Trump has unexpectedly announced additional tariffs at critical moments many times, the market is highly concerned about whether heavy tariffs of more than 20% will suddenly be imposed on India or South Korea this week.
Analysts believe that once Trump launches a tariff policy that exceeds market expectations, it will quickly trigger a rise in risk aversion sentiment, especially the US dollar, gold and US bonds may strengthen simultaneously; this also means that the current trade agreement is not only related to the stability of the global supply chain, but has also become an important indicator affecting the foreign exchange market and commodities.
The United States will release ADP private sector employment data at 20:15 this Wednesday. Although this data theoretically provides a forward-looking reference for the non-farm payrolls report, its market influence continues to decline due to its repeated deviations from official data in the past few months, especially the most recent one that even recorded a decrease in jobs.
In the current trading environment, traders are more concerned about actual actions and policy trends. Analysts pointed out that if the ADP data is weak, the market may tend to "automatically ignore" it; but if the data is unexpectedly strong, it will be re-weighted and may push up expectations for the upcoming non-agricultural data, triggering short-term market fluctuations.
The United States will release the preliminary GDP for the second quarter at 20:30 this Wednesday. The market generally predicts that the annualized growth rate will reach 2.5%, significantly higher than the -0.5% in the first quarter. The previous negative growth was partly attributed to the panic buying import disturbance, which has a one-off feature.
If the data is higher than 3%, it will not only help confirm that the US economy has returned to normal track, but also strengthen the market's preference for US dollar assets; if it is lower than 2%, it will reignite market concerns about economic slowdown. However, as the Fed's interest rate decision is about to be released, analysts believe that the market impact of GDP data may be relatively short-lived.
The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision at 02:00 this Thursday and hold a press conference at 02:30. The market generally expects that there will be no interest rate adjustment this time. The real focus is on the hints on the future policy path, especially whether to cut interest rates in September, which has become the core of hot discussion among traders.
It is worth noting that there are divergent positions within the Federal Reserve. In particular, the two board members appointed by Trump, Waller and Bowman, have recently shown a dovish tendency. If the two vote together to support a rate cut, it will constitute a "rare double dissent" and the market is bound to be highly sensitive to this.
Analysts pointed out that if Chairman Powell maintains a cautious tone at the press conference and there is a divergence of internal positions in the resolution, the market may strengthen initially, but then may weaken again due to concerns about policy uncertainty, forming a repeated market trend of "first rise and then fall".
The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision during the Asian session on Thursday. Although the current interest rate of 0.50% is expected to remain unchanged, the Bank of Japan has more policy space as Japan and the United States complete a trade agreement. If Governor Kazuo Ueda conveys a hawkish signal in his speech after the meeting, the market may factor in the next rate hike in advance.
Analysts generally believe that once the Bank of Japan hints at a tightening policy stance, the yen is expected to appreciate significantly, becoming another key variable in market trends this week.
As one of the most closely watched inflation indicators of the Federal Reserve, the June core PCE price index will be released at 20:30 this Thursday. The market forecast is a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, higher than last month's 0.2%, indicating that inflationary pressure may intensify again.
Against the backdrop of a highly uncertain interest rate path, if the data exceeds expectations, it will directly suppress market bets on a September rate cut, push up the dollar and U.S. bond yields, and put pressure on safe-haven assets such as gold. Analysts believe that the performance of core PCE will become an important basis for the market to quickly repricing during the critical window period after the Fed meeting.
The July non-farm payrolls report for the United States will be released at 20:30 this Friday. The market expects 102,000 new jobs, a slight decline from the previous period, but still maintaining positive growth. Despite the increasing substitution of AI for low-end jobs and the impact of immigration policies on labor supply, the overall employment trend remains stable.
Analysts pointed out that at a stage when the Fed has not yet clarified its policy path, strong employment data not only represents consumer power supporting corporate profits, but also means that monetary policy may be more inclined to wait and see or even further tighten. Therefore, non-agricultural data will become one of the most watched economic events this week. If it is higher than expected, the US dollar may usher in a period of strengthening.
Analysts believe that once Trump launches a tariff policy that exceeds market expectations, it will quickly trigger a rise in risk aversion sentiment, especially the US dollar, gold and US bonds may strengthen simultaneously; this also means that the current trade agreement is not only related to the stability of the global supply chain, but has also become an important indicator affecting the foreign exchange market and commodities.
ADP employment data faces a crisis of confidence, and the market may selectively ignore it
The United States will release ADP private sector employment data at 20:15 this Wednesday. Although this data theoretically provides a forward-looking reference for the non-farm payrolls report, its market influence continues to decline due to its repeated deviations from official data in the past few months, especially the most recent one that even recorded a decrease in jobs.
In the current trading environment, traders are more concerned about actual actions and policy trends. Analysts pointed out that if the ADP data is weak, the market may tend to "automatically ignore" it; but if the data is unexpectedly strong, it will be re-weighted and may push up expectations for the upcoming non-agricultural data, triggering short-term market fluctuations.
US GDP data may establish the path for economic recovery
The United States will release the preliminary GDP for the second quarter at 20:30 this Wednesday. The market generally predicts that the annualized growth rate will reach 2.5%, significantly higher than the -0.5% in the first quarter. The previous negative growth was partly attributed to the panic buying import disturbance, which has a one-off feature.
If the data is higher than 3%, it will not only help confirm that the US economy has returned to normal track, but also strengthen the market's preference for US dollar assets; if it is lower than 2%, it will reignite market concerns about economic slowdown. However, as the Fed's interest rate decision is about to be released, analysts believe that the market impact of GDP data may be relatively short-lived.
The Fed's decision will reveal internal divisions, and the market reaction may rise first and then fall.
The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision at 02:00 this Thursday and hold a press conference at 02:30. The market generally expects that there will be no interest rate adjustment this time. The real focus is on the hints on the future policy path, especially whether to cut interest rates in September, which has become the core of hot discussion among traders.
It is worth noting that there are divergent positions within the Federal Reserve. In particular, the two board members appointed by Trump, Waller and Bowman, have recently shown a dovish tendency. If the two vote together to support a rate cut, it will constitute a "rare double dissent" and the market is bound to be highly sensitive to this.
Analysts pointed out that if Chairman Powell maintains a cautious tone at the press conference and there is a divergence of internal positions in the resolution, the market may strengthen initially, but then may weaken again due to concerns about policy uncertainty, forming a repeated market trend of "first rise and then fall".
The Bank of Japan may release its intention to raise interest rates in advance, and the yen faces a turning point opportunity
The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision during the Asian session on Thursday. Although the current interest rate of 0.50% is expected to remain unchanged, the Bank of Japan has more policy space as Japan and the United States complete a trade agreement. If Governor Kazuo Ueda conveys a hawkish signal in his speech after the meeting, the market may factor in the next rate hike in advance.
Analysts generally believe that once the Bank of Japan hints at a tightening policy stance, the yen is expected to appreciate significantly, becoming another key variable in market trends this week.
Core PCE inflation data may stir expectations of rate cuts
As one of the most closely watched inflation indicators of the Federal Reserve, the June core PCE price index will be released at 20:30 this Thursday. The market forecast is a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, higher than last month's 0.2%, indicating that inflationary pressure may intensify again.
Against the backdrop of a highly uncertain interest rate path, if the data exceeds expectations, it will directly suppress market bets on a September rate cut, push up the dollar and U.S. bond yields, and put pressure on safe-haven assets such as gold. Analysts believe that the performance of core PCE will become an important basis for the market to quickly repricing during the critical window period after the Fed meeting.
Non-farm payrolls data will set the tone for the market
The July non-farm payrolls report for the United States will be released at 20:30 this Friday. The market expects 102,000 new jobs, a slight decline from the previous period, but still maintaining positive growth. Despite the increasing substitution of AI for low-end jobs and the impact of immigration policies on labor supply, the overall employment trend remains stable.
Analysts pointed out that at a stage when the Fed has not yet clarified its policy path, strong employment data not only represents consumer power supporting corporate profits, but also means that monetary policy may be more inclined to wait and see or even further tighten. Therefore, non-agricultural data will become one of the most watched economic events this week. If it is higher than expected, the US dollar may usher in a period of strengthening.
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