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2025-07-29 14:07:41
[Orient Securities: Maintain Ganyuan Food's "overweight" rating, earnings recovery has strong certainty] Orient Securities Research Report pointed out that Ganyuan Food's semi-annual report performance forecast has dropped significantly, and it will take time for the fundamentals to improve. The reasons are the decline in revenue (the year-on-year decline in Q2 revenue slowed down from 13.99% in Q1 but still fell on a low base), the increase in the cost of raw materials such as palm oil, and the increase in sales and management expenses. The company is in a period of business transformation. In order to promote brand and product upgrades and strengthen domestic and foreign channel construction, it has to increase investment in celebrity endorsements, advertising, new product promotion, and online and offline channel development; optimize the management team, introduce excellent management personnel, and management expenses increase year-on-year. Based on the latest semi-annual performance forecast, key assumptions such as the sales growth rate of core categories, the rhythm of channel volume release, and the improvement of expense rates have been lowered, while maintaining the medium- and long-term product and channel expansion logic unchanged. Based on this, the company's earnings forecast is adjusted, and the company's EPS is expected to be 3.33/4.08/4.68 yuan in 2025-2027 (the previous forecast of EPS in 2025/2026 was 5.37/6.52 yuan). Considering the company's multi-brand and multi-channel layout continues to advance, earnings recovery has a strong certainty. With reference to the valuation level of comparable companies, the company is given a PE of 19 times in 2025, corresponding to a target price of 63.27 yuan, and the "overweight" rating is maintained.
