Live Updates > Live Update Details
2025-07-29 22:02:47
[US employment data suddenly reveals cracks! Is a wave of resignations in July a hidden threat?] ⑴ On the evening of July 29th, Beijing time, the US Department of Labor data showed that job openings plummeted to 7.437 million in June, a 3.6% drop from the revised 7.712 million in May, reaching the lowest level since June 2024. ⑵ Key indicators collapsed across the board: the job vacancy rate fell from 4.6% to 4.4%, and the hiring rate also declined to 3.3%, confirming a continued cooling of the labor market. ⑶ A more dangerous signal comes from the "voluntary resignation rate"—considered a barometer of employment confidence. This figure fell below the psychological threshold of 2%, shrinking 4.8% year-on-year. ⑷ However, layoffs rose against the trend to 1.604 million, a year-on-year surge of 9.4%, suggesting that companies are shifting from "difficulty recruiting" to "maintaining profits." ⑸ Historical comparisons show that current job vacancies are lower than the same period in 2024, but layoffs have increased by 1.37 million, creating a bizarre gap. ⑹ Market concerns that this may be a precursor to a "hard landing" for the economy, especially with the impact of Trump's tariff rhetoric, have led institutions to bet that the Fed will be forced to shift its stance in September. ⑺ Traders should be wary: if the resignation rate and layoff data form a "death cross," the US stock valuation bubble will suffer a double blow. ⑻ Technically, the 90-day correlation between S&P 500 futures and JOLTS data has fallen below -0.7, so be wary of a rebound after the data is released. ⑼ The biggest question now is when this "boiling frog in warm water" type of job decline will escalate into a full-scale panic.
