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2025-07-30 13:53:52
JPMorgan Chase: Copper Prices May See a Correction in the Second Half of 2025. JPMorgan strategists note that US copper imports saw significant "frontloading" in the first half of this year. This "sharp frontloading behavior was driven by expectations of potential tariffs." As of May, US refined copper imports increased by 129% year-on-year, "leading to an unprecedented buildup of inventories," contributing to global imbalances. Gregory Shearer, JPMorgan's head of base and precious metals strategy, stated in the report that copper supply remains constrained overall. However, globally, copper inventories are not unusually tight, but rather severely misaligned and imbalanced. Fundamentals have tightened due to US imports and the premature release of Chinese demand. However, Shearer stated that a "correction" is possible in the second half of 2025, "reversing the previous demand frontloading momentum and reducing demand, leading us to a more cautious outlook on copper prices for the remainder of the year." He said this could lead to a sudden shift in trade flows, with copper "diverted away from the U.S. and back to the rest of the world," helping to replenish London Metal Exchange (LME) inventories, narrowing LME spreads and creating "stronger headwinds for LME copper prices for the rest of the year."
