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2025-07-30 20:56:44
[The Shadow of the GDP Rebound: Weak Domestic Demand and Trade Distortions Reveal a "Puffy" Economy] ⑴ After the release of US second-quarter GDP data on July 30th (Beijing time), despite a 3% rebound in overall economic activity, the market generally viewed it as severely distorted. ⑵ Key GDP figures were significantly boosted by trade factors, with net exports contributing 5 percentage points to GDP, reversing the previous quarter's drag. ⑶ However, economists are more focused on the "final sales to domestic private buyers" indicator, which reflects the economy's underlying growth momentum. ⑷ This indicator grew by only 1.2% in the second quarter, significantly lower than the 1.9% in the first quarter, marking the slowest growth since the fourth quarter of 2022, highlighting weak domestic demand. ⑸ Excluding recent fluctuations caused by Trump's tariff rhetoric, overall economic activity in the second quarter was moderate. ⑹ Consumer spending, which accounts for approximately two-thirds of GDP, grew by only 1.4%, marking the weakest performance for two consecutive quarters since the pandemic. ⑺ Business investment growth also slowed. ⑻ Reputable institutional analysts pointed out that despite the White House's announcement of multiple trade agreements, the United States' effective tariff rates remain at levels not seen since the 1930s, and approximately 60% of imported goods are not covered by the agreements. ⑼ The market expects economic growth to remain weak in the second half of the year. ⑽ Influenced by the GDP report, U.S. Treasury prices fell, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rising by approximately 3 basis points to 4.35%. Spot gold fell by more than $18 following the data release, hitting a low of $3,310.52 per ounce.
