A sound at the port caused a triple rise in crude oil prices: Primorsk ignited Brent
2025-09-12 20:58:40
On Friday (September 12), Brent crude oil futures saw a rapid rally in the 10-minute chart before the US market opened, rising from 65.68 to 68.14 intraday, piercing the upper Bollinger Band 68.01 during the session, clearly demonstrating the release of short-term momentum. The driving force behind this rally was not macroeconomic factors, but rather concerns about immediate supply disruptions following a drone attack on the port of Primorsk, a key energy hub in the Baltic Sea. The market quickly priced in the risk of a "port loading suspension," triggering a wave of event-driven price increases.
A Reuters report indicated that this was the first drone attack on the port of Primorsk, one of Russia's core crude oil and refined product export terminals in the Baltic Sea. The attack caused fires on a ship and a pumping station, which were subsequently extinguished, and local officials stated there was no risk of a refined product leak. Authorities also stated that loading operations were temporarily suspended early that morning and that over 30 drones were intercepted or destroyed. Although officials did not directly identify the background, the market has categorized the incident as an "energy infrastructure risk."
In addition to Primorsk, other ports such as Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk have also become targets several times in recent months, weakening the market's expectations for stability on the Baltic-Black Sea route.
In addition, industry sources said that rumors of attacks on two crude oil tankers have reduced the visibility of whether loading will resume; before the uncertainty is resolved, shipowners and charterers may increase risk premiums or postpone berthing, and there is a possibility of marginal losses in effective export capacity in the short term.
At the same time, Russia's crude oil export plan from western ports in September was raised to 2.1 million barrels per day (an 11% increase from the initial plan). On the one hand, it hedged against the decline in domestic demand for crude oil after the attack on domestic refineries, and on the other hand, it also objectively increased the utilization and shipping density at the export end. This exposed the vulnerability of "high load and low redundancy" at the node where the port was attacked, amplifying the market perception of the impact of the incident.
On the macro side, Europe's plans to accelerate the reduction of its energy dependence on Russia provide the medium-term backdrop. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will resume easing next week are being priced into oil prices through the "growth and demand elasticity" channel: CME tools indicate a 7.5% probability of a one-time 50 basis point rate cut to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, with the remainder betting on a conventional 25 basis point cut. Lower interest rates, a downward shift in the front end of the curve, a weaker US dollar, and a higher commodity risk premium are all contributing to oil price support.
Conclusion: The recent sharp rise is essentially a repricing of short-term risk premium triggered by "port events + geopolitical supply", rather than a major cyclical turning point on the demand side; but against the backdrop of macro-friendliness (expectations of interest rate cuts), price elasticity is further amplified.
Refer to the 10-minute K-line of the Brent crude oil continuous contract. From the graphical data:
1) Bollinger Bands: Middle Band 67.02, Upper Band 68.01, Lower Band 66.03. The price has risen rapidly from the low of 65.68, with multiple consecutive bullish candlesticks resembling a "three white soldiers" pattern. The price reached a high of 68.14 and briefly crossed the upper band before consolidating around 67.92, demonstrating the "upper band constraint during bandwidth expansion." A piercing of the upper band—a pullback between the upper and middle bands—signals the entry into the "first retracement candidate after a breakout" phase of the short-term cycle. If the pullback fails to break through the support band formed by the angle between the upper and middle bands, the probability of trend continuation is higher.
2) MACD indicator: DIFF=0.39, DEA=0.34, column MACD=0.10, the "golden cross diffusion" above the zero axis is still there, the column is positive but the marginal increase is slowing down; the corresponding price has an upper shadow retracement near 68.14, indicating that the short-term momentum may transition from "advancement" to "consolidation".
3) RSI (14): The value is 85.31, which is in the significant overbought zone, resonating with the price "breaking the upper track", a typical event-driven overbought. Technically, overbought is not a sell signal, but on the 10-minute level, it is common to see sideways fluctuations in time for space or price pullbacks to the moving average/middle track.
4) Key Price Structure: Support is focused on 67.02 (middle Bollinger Band) – 66.51 (previous high/structural level) – 66.03 (lower Bollinger Band) – 65.68 (intraday low); resistance lies at 68.01 (upper Bollinger Band) – 68.14 (intraday high). If the price breaks through 68.14 on large volume and stabilizes above the upper band, the short-term trend will enter the "upper expansion segment of the rising channel." If it falls back below 67.02, be wary of a false breakout followed by a retest of 66.51/66.03.
In summary, the technical picture is biased towards bullish, but the short-term overbought + upper shadow suggests that the probability of "digestion after a surge" is not low; whether the price can cross the upper limit of 68.14 for the second time and stabilize at 68.14 will determine whether this wave of event-driven can evolve into a trend upward.
This is a typical round of "news pulse + price self-reinforcement":
Source of sentiment: Concerns about port loading suspensions and shipping safety have led to a rapid repricing of risk premiums and futures term structures.
Transmission chain: news trigger → influx of high-frequency long orders → short-term technical breakthrough (breaking the upper track/breaking the previous high) → passive increase in positions by momentum and following strategies → RSI overbought and MACD positive column amplification.
Structural differentiation: Short-term quantitative/intraday strategies are more likely to be used, but medium-term differences between bulls and bears are becoming increasingly apparent on three fronts: "Can Russia's western ports recover quickly?", "How will insurance and freight rates be adjusted?", and "Will there be similar attacks in the future?"
Risk points: Once it is confirmed that loading has resumed smoothly or the risk is quickly blunted, there will be pressure to give back the event premium previously calculated; and if there is another negative increase in damage to facilities or restricted waterways, sentiment may turn upward again, driving the trend trading relay.
Main Line A - Event Continuation (Bull Scenario)
Trigger conditions: Primorsk's loading recovery is slower than expected, regional air defense pressure continues, or disturbances reappear at other ports; at the same time, external macro expectations remain loose.
Price interpretation: 68.01 was effectively stabilized, 68.14 was broken through with large volume and turned into support, and the price was pushed up along the outer side of the Bollinger Band, forming the outer expansion section of the rising channel.
Key observations: MACD column continues to expand, DIFF and DEA rise synchronously; RSI "blunts" at a high level instead of falling rapidly.
Reference range: Repeated turnover above 67.02 is healthy; if it moves along the upper track, the upward channel will naturally raise the target band.
Main Line B——Event Blunting Type (Short/Consolidation Scenario)
Trigger conditions: timely resumption of loading, no new damage to facilities, and rapid return to normal shipping and insurance terms; coupled with the macro-disturbance of weakening interest rate cuts/strengthening of the US dollar.
Price interpretation: Short-term overbought decline, covering to 67.02 (middle track) or even 66.51/66.03, forming a box digestion after the upward movement.
Key observations: The RSI has retreated from 85 to the neutral zone, while the MACD histogram has narrowed and may show a high-level divergence.
Risk warning: Pullback does not mean trend reversal; only when 66.03 is confirmed to have fallen below and lost and is unable to be recovered, the short-term structure will be downgraded from "strong consolidation" to the second half of "reverse test".
Mainline C - Macro Acceleration (Volatility Expansion Scenario)
Trigger conditions: At the same time as the geopolitical situation escalates, the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50bp, exceeding expectations, triggering a coordinated decline in the US dollar and real interest rates.
Price interpretation: The event premium and the macro liquidity premium are superimposed in the same direction, the long-term futures curve becomes steeper, and the near end rises along the upper track; but in this scenario, the retracement range will also be amplified simultaneously.
Fundamentals: Port events dominate, and expectations of "pulse-like" tightening on the supply side are rising.
A Reuters report indicated that this was the first drone attack on the port of Primorsk, one of Russia's core crude oil and refined product export terminals in the Baltic Sea. The attack caused fires on a ship and a pumping station, which were subsequently extinguished, and local officials stated there was no risk of a refined product leak. Authorities also stated that loading operations were temporarily suspended early that morning and that over 30 drones were intercepted or destroyed. Although officials did not directly identify the background, the market has categorized the incident as an "energy infrastructure risk."
In addition to Primorsk, other ports such as Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk have also become targets several times in recent months, weakening the market's expectations for stability on the Baltic-Black Sea route.
In addition, industry sources said that rumors of attacks on two crude oil tankers have reduced the visibility of whether loading will resume; before the uncertainty is resolved, shipowners and charterers may increase risk premiums or postpone berthing, and there is a possibility of marginal losses in effective export capacity in the short term.
At the same time, Russia's crude oil export plan from western ports in September was raised to 2.1 million barrels per day (an 11% increase from the initial plan). On the one hand, it hedged against the decline in domestic demand for crude oil after the attack on domestic refineries, and on the other hand, it also objectively increased the utilization and shipping density at the export end. This exposed the vulnerability of "high load and low redundancy" at the node where the port was attacked, amplifying the market perception of the impact of the incident.
On the macro side, Europe's plans to accelerate the reduction of its energy dependence on Russia provide the medium-term backdrop. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will resume easing next week are being priced into oil prices through the "growth and demand elasticity" channel: CME tools indicate a 7.5% probability of a one-time 50 basis point rate cut to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, with the remainder betting on a conventional 25 basis point cut. Lower interest rates, a downward shift in the front end of the curve, a weaker US dollar, and a higher commodity risk premium are all contributing to oil price support.
Conclusion: The recent sharp rise is essentially a repricing of short-term risk premium triggered by "port events + geopolitical supply", rather than a major cyclical turning point on the demand side; but against the backdrop of macro-friendliness (expectations of interest rate cuts), price elasticity is further amplified.
Technical aspects:
Refer to the 10-minute K-line of the Brent crude oil continuous contract. From the graphical data:
1) Bollinger Bands: Middle Band 67.02, Upper Band 68.01, Lower Band 66.03. The price has risen rapidly from the low of 65.68, with multiple consecutive bullish candlesticks resembling a "three white soldiers" pattern. The price reached a high of 68.14 and briefly crossed the upper band before consolidating around 67.92, demonstrating the "upper band constraint during bandwidth expansion." A piercing of the upper band—a pullback between the upper and middle bands—signals the entry into the "first retracement candidate after a breakout" phase of the short-term cycle. If the pullback fails to break through the support band formed by the angle between the upper and middle bands, the probability of trend continuation is higher.
2) MACD indicator: DIFF=0.39, DEA=0.34, column MACD=0.10, the "golden cross diffusion" above the zero axis is still there, the column is positive but the marginal increase is slowing down; the corresponding price has an upper shadow retracement near 68.14, indicating that the short-term momentum may transition from "advancement" to "consolidation".
3) RSI (14): The value is 85.31, which is in the significant overbought zone, resonating with the price "breaking the upper track", a typical event-driven overbought. Technically, overbought is not a sell signal, but on the 10-minute level, it is common to see sideways fluctuations in time for space or price pullbacks to the moving average/middle track.
4) Key Price Structure: Support is focused on 67.02 (middle Bollinger Band) – 66.51 (previous high/structural level) – 66.03 (lower Bollinger Band) – 65.68 (intraday low); resistance lies at 68.01 (upper Bollinger Band) – 68.14 (intraday high). If the price breaks through 68.14 on large volume and stabilizes above the upper band, the short-term trend will enter the "upper expansion segment of the rising channel." If it falls back below 67.02, be wary of a false breakout followed by a retest of 66.51/66.03.
In summary, the technical picture is biased towards bullish, but the short-term overbought + upper shadow suggests that the probability of "digestion after a surge" is not low; whether the price can cross the upper limit of 68.14 for the second time and stabilize at 68.14 will determine whether this wave of event-driven can evolve into a trend upward.
Market Sentiment Observation: From “Panic-Crowding” to “Rationality-Stratification”
This is a typical round of "news pulse + price self-reinforcement":
Source of sentiment: Concerns about port loading suspensions and shipping safety have led to a rapid repricing of risk premiums and futures term structures.
Transmission chain: news trigger → influx of high-frequency long orders → short-term technical breakthrough (breaking the upper track/breaking the previous high) → passive increase in positions by momentum and following strategies → RSI overbought and MACD positive column amplification.
Structural differentiation: Short-term quantitative/intraday strategies are more likely to be used, but medium-term differences between bulls and bears are becoming increasingly apparent on three fronts: "Can Russia's western ports recover quickly?", "How will insurance and freight rates be adjusted?", and "Will there be similar attacks in the future?"
Risk points: Once it is confirmed that loading has resumed smoothly or the risk is quickly blunted, there will be pressure to give back the event premium previously calculated; and if there is another negative increase in damage to facilities or restricted waterways, sentiment may turn upward again, driving the trend trading relay.
Market Outlook: Two Main Lines and Three Paths
Main Line A - Event Continuation (Bull Scenario)
Trigger conditions: Primorsk's loading recovery is slower than expected, regional air defense pressure continues, or disturbances reappear at other ports; at the same time, external macro expectations remain loose.
Price interpretation: 68.01 was effectively stabilized, 68.14 was broken through with large volume and turned into support, and the price was pushed up along the outer side of the Bollinger Band, forming the outer expansion section of the rising channel.
Key observations: MACD column continues to expand, DIFF and DEA rise synchronously; RSI "blunts" at a high level instead of falling rapidly.
Reference range: Repeated turnover above 67.02 is healthy; if it moves along the upper track, the upward channel will naturally raise the target band.
Main Line B——Event Blunting Type (Short/Consolidation Scenario)
Trigger conditions: timely resumption of loading, no new damage to facilities, and rapid return to normal shipping and insurance terms; coupled with the macro-disturbance of weakening interest rate cuts/strengthening of the US dollar.
Price interpretation: Short-term overbought decline, covering to 67.02 (middle track) or even 66.51/66.03, forming a box digestion after the upward movement.
Key observations: The RSI has retreated from 85 to the neutral zone, while the MACD histogram has narrowed and may show a high-level divergence.
Risk warning: Pullback does not mean trend reversal; only when 66.03 is confirmed to have fallen below and lost and is unable to be recovered, the short-term structure will be downgraded from "strong consolidation" to the second half of "reverse test".
Mainline C - Macro Acceleration (Volatility Expansion Scenario)
Trigger conditions: At the same time as the geopolitical situation escalates, the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50bp, exceeding expectations, triggering a coordinated decline in the US dollar and real interest rates.
Price interpretation: The event premium and the macro liquidity premium are superimposed in the same direction, the long-term futures curve becomes steeper, and the near end rises along the upper track; but in this scenario, the retracement range will also be amplified simultaneously.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
