CITIC Construction Investment Futures: Precious metals are running strong, awaiting the results of the interest rate meeting
2025-09-17 10:46:16
Precious Metals: US retail sales grew faster than expected in August, but this did not dampen market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, leading to continued strong performance in precious metals. Trump's bid to fire Fed Governor Tim Cook was rejected, but Milan's nomination to the Fed Board was approved, suggesting continued Trump's attempts to disrupt the Fed's independence. Overall, the market has been trading on expectations of a Fed rate cut, maintaining strong support for precious metals and promoting a long-term bull market. The Fed meeting remains under scrutiny. In terms of short-term trading, a wait-and-see approach is recommended, while long-term long positions can be held. The reference range for Shanghai Gold 2510 is 820-850 yuan/gram, and the reference range for Shanghai Silver 2510 is 9,700-10,300 yuan/kilogram.
Stock Index Futures: In the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.45%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.68%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 1.32%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.21%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.50%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.75%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.92%. The trading volume of the two markets totaled 2,341.402 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 64.017 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan first-level sectors, the best-performing sectors were: General Purpose (3.63%), Computers (2.06%), and Machinery and Equipment (2.06%). The worst-performing sectors were: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (-1.29%), Banks (-1.15%), and Nonferrous Metals (-0.99%). Regarding basis, the basis of the four major stock indices all strengthened slightly. The annualized basis rates for the IH and IF quarterly contracts are 0.50% and -3.00%, respectively; while the annualized basis rates for the IC and IM quarterly contracts are -10.70% and -12.80%. For hedging purposes, quarterly contracts may be considered for short positions. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fluctuated within a narrow range and saw a slight upward trend on the previous trading day, with the Shenzhen market slightly outperforming the Shanghai market. Trading volume in both markets increased slightly compared to the previous trading day. From a primary industry perspective, technology sectors such as computers and electronics, as well as primary industry sectors such as machinery and equipment and general merchandise, performed well. Due to the broad coverage of the technology sector, funds have been rotating within these sectors and across various sectors and concepts. Meanwhile, banks saw another significant decline, which may have contributed to the significant underperformance of the large-cap index compared to the small- and medium-cap index yesterday. The US and Chinese talks in Madrid have announced progress, with a preliminary framework agreed upon on various matters. Details are expected to be released gradually, and the framework is quite positive. The Federal Reserve will hold its September interest rate meeting in the next two days. A rate cut is highly likely, potentially boosting international capital inflows into China's capital markets in the short to medium term. IC and IM are expected to continue to rise due to sentiment, and it is recommended to maintain long positions.
Stock Index Options: Last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.45%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.68%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 1.32%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.21%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.5%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.75%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.92%, and the Shenzhen 100 ETF was flat. Trading volume for the two markets totaled 2.341402 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 64 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan first-level sectors, the best-performing were general merchandise (3.63%), machinery and equipment (2.06%), and computers (2.06%). The worst-performing sectors were nonferrous metals (-0.99%), banks (-1.15%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.29%). The implied volatility of options will fluctuate in the short term, and selling volatility strategies can appropriately control positions in the short term; if the fundamentals such as the macro economy and the profits of listed companies improve, there will be sufficient upside space. In the long term, the market may be dominated by a volatile strengthening with the center gradually moving upward. You can pay attention to the covered call strategy of stock index futures long positions combined with selling out-of-the-money call options.
Treasury bond futures: On Tuesday, Treasury bond futures opened lower and closed higher. Unilaterally, based on closing prices, the 30-year bond was flat, the 10-year bond rose 0.15%, the 5-year bond rose 0.13%, and the 2-year bond rose 0.04%. The yield on the active 30-year bond fell 1.9 basis points to 2.075%, the active 10-year bond yield fell 2 basis points to 1.78%, and the active 2-year bond yield fell 1.5 basis points to 1.4%. Regarding inter-product spreads, 4TS-T, 2TF-T, and 3T-TL futures changed by 0.024 yuan, 0.11 yuan, and 0.48 yuan, respectively. Unilateral strategy: Sentiment continues to recover, with long-term bonds weakening and short-term bonds strengthening. The bond market is expected to stabilize in the short term, but the correction is far from over. Be wary of a flattening of the interest rate curve due to the risk of unexpected liquidity tightening. Regarding trading strategies, a cautious wait-and-see approach is recommended, with the option of shorting TS. Cross-product strategy: The interest rate curve is short-term steep and long-term flat. Subsequently, we will gradually adopt a short-term (TS) and long-term (T) arbitrage strategy. Currently, the investment is cost-effective, and we await clear signals of capital tightening. Hedging strategy: The net basis has declined, but the current level is still high, making it difficult to participate in short-term arbitrage. We recommend reducing the current bond position to mitigate potential liquidity risks.
Industrial silicon: Yesterday, the market fluctuated between weak fundamentals and positive policy expectations. On the one hand, fundamental pressures persist. Northwest industrial silicon companies continue to ramp up production, leading to an overall increase in supply, while downstream polysilicon continues to face pressure from subsequent production cuts. On the other hand, expectations of anti-involutionary policies continue to roil the market, but with no policy implementation in place, expectations are fluctuating. Overall, while industrial silicon fundamentals remain under pressure, the market is likely to remain range-bound due to frequent policy fluctuations. For trading purposes, consider a wait-and-see approach or consider selling put options at low strike prices. The SI2511 contract is in the reference range of 8,500-9,000 yuan/ton.
Ferroalloys: The spot market has not improved, and the market's upward trend stems from expectations. Poor data on real estate and consumption has heightened market expectations for future macroeconomic policies. Furthermore, the Central Supervisory Group reported issues in some provinces, raising anti-involutionary expectations. Market prices are clearly supported near low costs, with ferrosilicon and silicomanganese nearing low costs around 5,500 yuan/ton and 5,800 yuan/ton, respectively. In the short term, prices may fluctuate strongly due to pre-holiday inventory replenishment, but volatility is likely to remain elusive. Overall supply is ample, and fundamentals do not support significant price increases. Focus will be on the implementation of macroeconomic policies and anti-involutionary industrial policies in October. Viewpoint: In futures trading, consider a light long position against cost and sell out-of-the-money put options as appropriate.
Shanghai Lead: Shanghai lead prices fluctuated weakly overnight. From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, current smelter raw material inventories remain adequate, while recyclers are cautious about falling prices and seeking higher prices, leading to weak performance in scrap battery prices. Some recycled lead refineries are planning to continue suspending production for maintenance, making it difficult for them to shift to a low-load operation in the short term. On the primary lead side, the supply and demand situation for lead concentrate remains tight, and processing fees are expected to stabilize due to the replenishment of imported ore. On the supply side, refineries in North China have partially resumed production, while those in East China remain stable, resulting in a tight overall supply situation. On the demand side, purchasing demand in the battery industry is unlikely to see a significant improvement, and overall restocking capacity is limited. Overall, macroeconomic sentiment is improving, but fundamental improvements are limited, keeping lead prices primarily volatile at low levels.
Shanghai Zinc: Overnight, Shanghai zinc prices fluctuated weakly. Macroeconomically, the US New York Manufacturing Index fell unexpectedly in September, raising expectations for interest rate cuts. From a fundamental perspective, domestic ore TC prices have seen some declines, currently averaging between 3,500 and 4,100 yuan per ton of metal. Imported ore TC prices have remained largely stable. On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu research, additional refinery maintenance in Henan and Guangxi provinces is underway this month, with further planned maintenance in Inner Mongolia in the middle and later part of the month. However, overall demand remains primarily incremental. On the demand side, poor quality during the peak season has widened the zinc ingot spot discount, and downstream purchasing sentiment is subdued. Overall, macroeconomic sentiment remains supportive, while fundamentals are suppressing upward movement, leading to widespread price fluctuations in zinc prices.
Methanol: Spot prices are 2120 in Daqi, 2260 in Luoyang, and 2390 in Lunan. Upstream plant auctions show regional differentiation, with traders actively purchasing and primarily targeting price pressures. In the short term, spot coal prices will continue to rise slightly, and overall prices are expected to remain stable. Methanol operating rates remain high, with some major plants in mainland China undergoing inspections this month. Inventory pressure in the mid- and upstream markets is minimal, and with the upcoming long holiday, downstream manufacturers are actively purchasing for immediate needs, so watch closely. On Tuesday, the spot basis in East China was between 01-100, with 9 below between 01-100, maintaining a narrow range of fluctuations. Available supply continues to accumulate in port areas, and overseas shipments are expected to remain high this month. Port inventory pressure has not yet reached a turning point. In the short term, mainland procurement and plant activity are driving port flows to support futures prices. Long-term, pay attention to the energy risks and port shipping dynamics in the Middle East. In terms of trading, methanol prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a reference range of 2340-2440 yuan/ton.
Urea: Spot prices in Shandong are between 1,600-1,610 yuan/ton ex-factory, and in Henan, between 1,580-1,600 yuan/ton. Domestic urea market prices are stable, but trading is relatively sluggish due to rising low-end quotes. On the supply side, several large-granule production plants in production areas have been shut down or temporarily shut down for technical upgrades, easing supply pressure. Following a period of continuous decline in spot prices, shipping sentiment has significantly improved. Agricultural demand is beginning to increase in some regions, while industrial demand, impacted by logistics during the long holiday, is closing in, providing some support for orders. The futures market has also stopped falling, and the outlook is expected to remain volatile. The interaction between the futures and spot markets has significantly strengthened. Overall, upstream supply pressure has eased, while demand remains strong, leading to a period of volatility. Urea prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the reference range for urea 2601 at 1,660-1,760 yuan/ton.
Authorized by CITIC Construction Investment Futures Co., Ltd. to be forwarded by "a professional market analysis information website focusing on domestic futures derivatives trading": [ http:// ]
Stock Index Futures: In the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.45%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.68%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 1.32%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.21%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.50%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.75%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.92%. The trading volume of the two markets totaled 2,341.402 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 64.017 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan first-level sectors, the best-performing sectors were: General Purpose (3.63%), Computers (2.06%), and Machinery and Equipment (2.06%). The worst-performing sectors were: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (-1.29%), Banks (-1.15%), and Nonferrous Metals (-0.99%). Regarding basis, the basis of the four major stock indices all strengthened slightly. The annualized basis rates for the IH and IF quarterly contracts are 0.50% and -3.00%, respectively; while the annualized basis rates for the IC and IM quarterly contracts are -10.70% and -12.80%. For hedging purposes, quarterly contracts may be considered for short positions. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fluctuated within a narrow range and saw a slight upward trend on the previous trading day, with the Shenzhen market slightly outperforming the Shanghai market. Trading volume in both markets increased slightly compared to the previous trading day. From a primary industry perspective, technology sectors such as computers and electronics, as well as primary industry sectors such as machinery and equipment and general merchandise, performed well. Due to the broad coverage of the technology sector, funds have been rotating within these sectors and across various sectors and concepts. Meanwhile, banks saw another significant decline, which may have contributed to the significant underperformance of the large-cap index compared to the small- and medium-cap index yesterday. The US and Chinese talks in Madrid have announced progress, with a preliminary framework agreed upon on various matters. Details are expected to be released gradually, and the framework is quite positive. The Federal Reserve will hold its September interest rate meeting in the next two days. A rate cut is highly likely, potentially boosting international capital inflows into China's capital markets in the short to medium term. IC and IM are expected to continue to rise due to sentiment, and it is recommended to maintain long positions.
Stock Index Options: Last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.45%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.68%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 1.32%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.21%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.5%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.75%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.92%, and the Shenzhen 100 ETF was flat. Trading volume for the two markets totaled 2.341402 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 64 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan first-level sectors, the best-performing were general merchandise (3.63%), machinery and equipment (2.06%), and computers (2.06%). The worst-performing sectors were nonferrous metals (-0.99%), banks (-1.15%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.29%). The implied volatility of options will fluctuate in the short term, and selling volatility strategies can appropriately control positions in the short term; if the fundamentals such as the macro economy and the profits of listed companies improve, there will be sufficient upside space. In the long term, the market may be dominated by a volatile strengthening with the center gradually moving upward. You can pay attention to the covered call strategy of stock index futures long positions combined with selling out-of-the-money call options.
Treasury bond futures: On Tuesday, Treasury bond futures opened lower and closed higher. Unilaterally, based on closing prices, the 30-year bond was flat, the 10-year bond rose 0.15%, the 5-year bond rose 0.13%, and the 2-year bond rose 0.04%. The yield on the active 30-year bond fell 1.9 basis points to 2.075%, the active 10-year bond yield fell 2 basis points to 1.78%, and the active 2-year bond yield fell 1.5 basis points to 1.4%. Regarding inter-product spreads, 4TS-T, 2TF-T, and 3T-TL futures changed by 0.024 yuan, 0.11 yuan, and 0.48 yuan, respectively. Unilateral strategy: Sentiment continues to recover, with long-term bonds weakening and short-term bonds strengthening. The bond market is expected to stabilize in the short term, but the correction is far from over. Be wary of a flattening of the interest rate curve due to the risk of unexpected liquidity tightening. Regarding trading strategies, a cautious wait-and-see approach is recommended, with the option of shorting TS. Cross-product strategy: The interest rate curve is short-term steep and long-term flat. Subsequently, we will gradually adopt a short-term (TS) and long-term (T) arbitrage strategy. Currently, the investment is cost-effective, and we await clear signals of capital tightening. Hedging strategy: The net basis has declined, but the current level is still high, making it difficult to participate in short-term arbitrage. We recommend reducing the current bond position to mitigate potential liquidity risks.
Industrial silicon: Yesterday, the market fluctuated between weak fundamentals and positive policy expectations. On the one hand, fundamental pressures persist. Northwest industrial silicon companies continue to ramp up production, leading to an overall increase in supply, while downstream polysilicon continues to face pressure from subsequent production cuts. On the other hand, expectations of anti-involutionary policies continue to roil the market, but with no policy implementation in place, expectations are fluctuating. Overall, while industrial silicon fundamentals remain under pressure, the market is likely to remain range-bound due to frequent policy fluctuations. For trading purposes, consider a wait-and-see approach or consider selling put options at low strike prices. The SI2511 contract is in the reference range of 8,500-9,000 yuan/ton.
Ferroalloys: The spot market has not improved, and the market's upward trend stems from expectations. Poor data on real estate and consumption has heightened market expectations for future macroeconomic policies. Furthermore, the Central Supervisory Group reported issues in some provinces, raising anti-involutionary expectations. Market prices are clearly supported near low costs, with ferrosilicon and silicomanganese nearing low costs around 5,500 yuan/ton and 5,800 yuan/ton, respectively. In the short term, prices may fluctuate strongly due to pre-holiday inventory replenishment, but volatility is likely to remain elusive. Overall supply is ample, and fundamentals do not support significant price increases. Focus will be on the implementation of macroeconomic policies and anti-involutionary industrial policies in October. Viewpoint: In futures trading, consider a light long position against cost and sell out-of-the-money put options as appropriate.
Shanghai Lead: Shanghai lead prices fluctuated weakly overnight. From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, current smelter raw material inventories remain adequate, while recyclers are cautious about falling prices and seeking higher prices, leading to weak performance in scrap battery prices. Some recycled lead refineries are planning to continue suspending production for maintenance, making it difficult for them to shift to a low-load operation in the short term. On the primary lead side, the supply and demand situation for lead concentrate remains tight, and processing fees are expected to stabilize due to the replenishment of imported ore. On the supply side, refineries in North China have partially resumed production, while those in East China remain stable, resulting in a tight overall supply situation. On the demand side, purchasing demand in the battery industry is unlikely to see a significant improvement, and overall restocking capacity is limited. Overall, macroeconomic sentiment is improving, but fundamental improvements are limited, keeping lead prices primarily volatile at low levels.
Shanghai Zinc: Overnight, Shanghai zinc prices fluctuated weakly. Macroeconomically, the US New York Manufacturing Index fell unexpectedly in September, raising expectations for interest rate cuts. From a fundamental perspective, domestic ore TC prices have seen some declines, currently averaging between 3,500 and 4,100 yuan per ton of metal. Imported ore TC prices have remained largely stable. On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu research, additional refinery maintenance in Henan and Guangxi provinces is underway this month, with further planned maintenance in Inner Mongolia in the middle and later part of the month. However, overall demand remains primarily incremental. On the demand side, poor quality during the peak season has widened the zinc ingot spot discount, and downstream purchasing sentiment is subdued. Overall, macroeconomic sentiment remains supportive, while fundamentals are suppressing upward movement, leading to widespread price fluctuations in zinc prices.
Methanol: Spot prices are 2120 in Daqi, 2260 in Luoyang, and 2390 in Lunan. Upstream plant auctions show regional differentiation, with traders actively purchasing and primarily targeting price pressures. In the short term, spot coal prices will continue to rise slightly, and overall prices are expected to remain stable. Methanol operating rates remain high, with some major plants in mainland China undergoing inspections this month. Inventory pressure in the mid- and upstream markets is minimal, and with the upcoming long holiday, downstream manufacturers are actively purchasing for immediate needs, so watch closely. On Tuesday, the spot basis in East China was between 01-100, with 9 below between 01-100, maintaining a narrow range of fluctuations. Available supply continues to accumulate in port areas, and overseas shipments are expected to remain high this month. Port inventory pressure has not yet reached a turning point. In the short term, mainland procurement and plant activity are driving port flows to support futures prices. Long-term, pay attention to the energy risks and port shipping dynamics in the Middle East. In terms of trading, methanol prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a reference range of 2340-2440 yuan/ton.
Urea: Spot prices in Shandong are between 1,600-1,610 yuan/ton ex-factory, and in Henan, between 1,580-1,600 yuan/ton. Domestic urea market prices are stable, but trading is relatively sluggish due to rising low-end quotes. On the supply side, several large-granule production plants in production areas have been shut down or temporarily shut down for technical upgrades, easing supply pressure. Following a period of continuous decline in spot prices, shipping sentiment has significantly improved. Agricultural demand is beginning to increase in some regions, while industrial demand, impacted by logistics during the long holiday, is closing in, providing some support for orders. The futures market has also stopped falling, and the outlook is expected to remain volatile. The interaction between the futures and spot markets has significantly strengthened. Overall, upstream supply pressure has eased, while demand remains strong, leading to a period of volatility. Urea prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the reference range for urea 2601 at 1,660-1,760 yuan/ton.
Authorized by CITIC Construction Investment Futures Co., Ltd. to be forwarded by "a professional market analysis information website focusing on domestic futures derivatives trading": [ http:// ]
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
