CITIC Construction Investment Futures: Gold prices hit new highs as US government shutdown continues
2025-10-09 10:56:10
Precious Metals: Precious metals continued their upward trend during the holiday. The US government shutdown significantly disrupted the market. Trump's comments about possible layoffs and project cuts created significant uncertainty for the US economy, driving safe-haven flows into the precious metals market. Furthermore, the shutdown delayed the release of key economic data, including the US non-farm payrolls, temporarily depriving the market of economic guidance. Concerns expressed by several Federal Reserve officials further reinforced safe-haven demand for precious metals. Overall, even if the shutdown crisis is resolved in the short term, precious metals remain supported by long-term factors such as geopolitical risks and de-dollarization, potentially extending their bullish trend. In the short term, watch for a rebound after the holiday. Long-term long positions are recommended. The reference range for Shanghai Gold (2512) is 890-930 yuan/gram, and the reference range for Shanghai Silver (2512) is 11,100-11,800 yuan/kilogram.
Stock Index Futures: In the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.52%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.35%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.00%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 1.69%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.45%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.53%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.84%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.03%. The trading volume of the two markets totaled 2,181.411 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 19.949 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan Securities primary sectors, the best performing sectors were nonferrous metals (3.22%), defense and military (2.59%), and real estate (2.12%). The worst performing sectors were communications (-1.83%), non-bank financials (-1.14%), and comprehensive (-1.06%). Regarding basis, the basis of the four major index futures weakened slightly. The annualized basis rates for IH and IF quarterly contracts are 0.00% and -2.30%, respectively. The annualized basis rates for IC and IM quarterly contracts are -7.80% and -10.50%, respectively. For hedging purposes, quarterly and monthly contracts may be considered for short positions. Due to the National Day holiday, there were only two trading days last week. Both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets saw gains, with average daily trading volume reaching approximately 2.17 trillion yuan, a significant decrease from the previous week. Recent performance of primary sectors in the stock market has shown strong performance in nonferrous metals, power equipment and new energy, and defense and military industries. However, large-cap stocks like banks and coal remain in a volatile downward trend, exerting some pressure on IH and IF stocks, which tend to favor the broader market. In the last two trading days before the holiday, the market showed an upward trend with shrinking volume. The trading volume of the two markets decreased moderately, which may be mainly affected by the demand for funds to be withdrawn across the holidays. Under this circumstance, the index still had a certain increase, which may indicate that the market has begun to trade in advance for the important political meeting coming soon after the holiday. At present, the expectations for the next stage of economic work arrangements are relatively positive, which may continue to push the index upward. It is recommended to maintain long positions in IC and IM.
Stock Index Options: Last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.52%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.35%, the ChiNext Index was flat, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 1.69%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.45%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.53%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.84%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.03%, and the SZSE 100 ETF rose 0.19%. Trading volume for the two markets totaled 2,181.411 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 19.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan First-Level Sectors, the best-performing sectors were nonferrous metals (3.22%), defense and military (2.59%), and real estate (2.12%). The worst-performing sectors were general merchandise (-1.06%), non-bank financials (-1.14%), and communications (-1.83%). During the long holiday, news flow was relatively limited, and volatility is expected to decline after the holiday. Put options strategies are suitable for short-term holdings. If fundamentals such as the macroeconomy and listed company earnings improve, the stock index has ample room to rise. Long-term, the market is likely to see a volatile strengthening trend with a gradually rising pivot point. Currently, stock index futures are trading at a significant discount. During corrections, consider a covered call strategy involving long stock index futures and selling out-of-the-money call options.
Treasury bond futures: On the last day before the holiday, Treasury bond futures rebounded. Unilaterally, based on closing prices, the 30-year bond futures rose 0.1%, the 10-year bond futures rose 0.17%, the 5-year bond futures rose 0.11%, and the 2-year bond futures rose 0.04%. The yield on the most active 30-year Treasury bond rose 1.5 basis points to 2.255%, the yield on the most active 10-year bond futures fell 2.45 basis points to 1.783%, and the yield on the most active 2-year bond futures fell 1.5 basis points to 1.49%. Inter-product spreads for futures: 4TS-T, 2TF-T, and 3T-TL futures futures changed by -0.025 yuan, 0.055 yuan, and 0.445 yuan, respectively. Unilateral strategies: Both stocks and bonds strengthened on the last day before the holiday, but TL remained the weakest, while T showed the most resilience. The impact of the improvement in the official manufacturing PMI data in September was relatively weak. The 1.1 trillion yuan outright reverse repo operation conducted on the first day after the holiday was a routine operation and is not expected to have a significant impact. During the National Day holiday, the Hang Seng Index surged and then retreated, while US stocks saw little volatility. Gold's continued rise was a bright spot, and overall sentiment is expected to have little impact on the domestic bond market. We recommend continuing to consider buying TL on dips for short-term value. Strategy: The resiliency of T-shares is expected to persist, and we recommend a short-short (TS) and long (T) arbitrage strategy. This arbitrage strategy currently outperforms single-sided strategies. Hedging strategy: With the T-share net basis falling back to a low level, we recommend a long T-share basis portfolio.
Industrial silicon: The pre-holiday market showed a relatively weak performance. The initial market was primarily supported by policy expectations. While spot prices maintained a positive outlook, demand remained weak. From a fundamental perspective, industrial silicon production runs remained at a high level for the year, with further increases expected in the northwest. However, the southwest is poised for seasonal cost increases, potentially leading to a decline in production. Downstream polysilicon prices remained firm under policy guidance, but remain subject to the risk of production controls reducing industrial silicon consumption. The rest of the downstream market maintained relatively stable performance. Overall, the fundamentals for industrial silicon offer limited support, with market sentiment driven more by policy expectations. Short-term pressure may persist. A light short position is recommended, with the SI2511 contract trading range at 8,400-9,000 yuan/ton.
Copper: Overseas copper prices strengthened during the holiday, with London copper rising over 4% to around $10,700 and US copper rising nearly 5% to $5.11 per pound. Macro and market sentiment was neutral to bullish. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.1 in September, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment and broad-based gains in equity assets. Furthermore, the US Senate failed to pass a temporary appropriations bill during the holiday, creating uncertainty about the impact of the government shutdown on employment and inflation data. This spurred gains in gold and silver, and also drove copper prices higher. Fundamental data was bullish. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, which accounts for 3.5% of global copper production, halted operations. Combined with the Panama copper mine shutdown, approximately 5% of global copper production has been halted. Meanwhile, domestic spot copper concentrate prices (TCs) were mired in losses of -$40 per dry ton. At the end of September, domestic smelters intensified their calls for a halt to internal trading, reinforcing expectations of tightening global raw material and refined copper supplies, driving copper prices higher. Overall, the shutdown of the world's second-largest copper mine has exacerbated supply constraints. Combined with macroeconomic policy expectations and bolstered by gradually increasing positive factors, copper prices are likely to rise and fall. We maintain a medium- to long-term bullish outlook, but remain cautious about potential corrections after a short-term gap-up opening in the domestic market. Today's Shanghai copper price range is 84,000-86,500 yuan/ton. Strategically, short-term intraday trading is recommended, while medium- to long-term dips are still a good strategy (recommended strategy as of September 18, 2025). Regarding options, a combination of buying deep-dip call options and selling put options can be held (recommended strategy as of September 28, 2025).
Shanghai Lead: London Lead prices rose 0.93% during the holiday. From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, scrap battery recycling continues to see a price-cutting mentality in its procurement, with recyclers largely avoiding price drops and seeking higher prices to sell, putting downward pressure on scrap battery prices. Recycled lead companies have seen some recovery from losses, but some continue to suspend production for maintenance, limiting any short-term impact from restarts. On the primary lead side, the supply and demand situation for lead concentrate remains tight, with processing fees expected to stabilize. On the supply side, refineries in North China have partially resumed production, and with delivery deadlines approaching, overall supply is tight. On the demand side, overall restocking is limited, and there is little appetite for proactive inventory replenishment in the short term. Overall, lead prices have performed well, driven by macroeconomic sentiment, but given the limited improvement in fundamentals, the rebound is expected to be weak.
Shanghai Zinc: London zinc prices rose 4.3% during the holiday, with non-ferrous metals leading the charge. Macroeconomically, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for September performed well, coupled with risk aversion triggered by the government shutdown, driving gains across precious metals and non-ferrous metals. From a fundamental perspective, the decline in domestic zinc prices in October supported the lower bound of zinc prices from a cost perspective. A drop of approximately 300 TC has brought zinc smelting margins back to June levels. On the supply and demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu's production schedule, October supply increased by approximately 20,000 tons month-over-month. Furthermore, due to the significant reductions and suspensions in galvanizing operations during the National Day holiday, inventory depletion is primarily driven by concentrated pre-holiday restocking and post-holiday inventory reductions. October consumption is expected to see limited month-over-month growth compared to September. Domestic zinc ingot supply and demand remain dominated by accumulated excess inventory, though the volume is expected to be modest. Under the influence of spot prices, Shanghai zinc prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level, with a firm domestic-domestic price differential.
Rebar: Spot prices in most markets remained flat compared to pre-holiday prices, with some cities experiencing mixed performance. Due to moderate profits at blast furnace mills, fewer voluntary production cuts and shutdowns have occurred, and electric furnace profits have recovered slightly. This has increased the enthusiasm of electric furnace mills to resume production in the short term, keeping supply relatively high. However, during the National Day holiday, inventory withdrawals were modest, with a significant increase in factory inventories. Social inventories increased to varying degrees across various markets, leading to some accumulation. Furthermore, pre-holiday futures market performance was weak, and market stocking sentiment was insufficient. Merchants adopted a wait-and-see approach, resulting in weak holiday shipments. Some steel mills are planning to resume production around the National Day holiday, and rebar production is expected to rebound. However, steel mill profits have not yet fully recovered. If demand does not keep pace, increased supply could exert downward pressure on prices. Rebar prices are expected to continue to fluctuate after the holiday.
Hot-rolled coil (HCR): During the holiday, HRC production decreased by 14,000 tons, while inventories increased by 323,200 tons. Apparent demand decreased by 336,400 tons to 2,909,700 tons. Amidst a weakening supply and demand landscape, HRC fundamentals remain weak, and high supply pressure persists, putting pressure on prices. Production remained high during the holiday period. If demand falls short of expectations after the holiday, inventory pressure could further increase, impacting prices. We expect HRC prices to continue to fluctuate after the holiday.
Authorized by CITIC Construction Investment Futures Co., Ltd. to be forwarded by "a professional market analysis information website focusing on domestic futures derivatives trading": [ http:// ]
Stock Index Futures: In the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.52%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.35%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.00%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 1.69%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.45%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.53%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.84%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.03%. The trading volume of the two markets totaled 2,181.411 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 19.949 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan Securities primary sectors, the best performing sectors were nonferrous metals (3.22%), defense and military (2.59%), and real estate (2.12%). The worst performing sectors were communications (-1.83%), non-bank financials (-1.14%), and comprehensive (-1.06%). Regarding basis, the basis of the four major index futures weakened slightly. The annualized basis rates for IH and IF quarterly contracts are 0.00% and -2.30%, respectively. The annualized basis rates for IC and IM quarterly contracts are -7.80% and -10.50%, respectively. For hedging purposes, quarterly and monthly contracts may be considered for short positions. Due to the National Day holiday, there were only two trading days last week. Both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets saw gains, with average daily trading volume reaching approximately 2.17 trillion yuan, a significant decrease from the previous week. Recent performance of primary sectors in the stock market has shown strong performance in nonferrous metals, power equipment and new energy, and defense and military industries. However, large-cap stocks like banks and coal remain in a volatile downward trend, exerting some pressure on IH and IF stocks, which tend to favor the broader market. In the last two trading days before the holiday, the market showed an upward trend with shrinking volume. The trading volume of the two markets decreased moderately, which may be mainly affected by the demand for funds to be withdrawn across the holidays. Under this circumstance, the index still had a certain increase, which may indicate that the market has begun to trade in advance for the important political meeting coming soon after the holiday. At present, the expectations for the next stage of economic work arrangements are relatively positive, which may continue to push the index upward. It is recommended to maintain long positions in IC and IM.
Stock Index Options: Last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.52%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.35%, the ChiNext Index was flat, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 1.69%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.45%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.53%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.84%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.03%, and the SZSE 100 ETF rose 0.19%. Trading volume for the two markets totaled 2,181.411 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 19.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan First-Level Sectors, the best-performing sectors were nonferrous metals (3.22%), defense and military (2.59%), and real estate (2.12%). The worst-performing sectors were general merchandise (-1.06%), non-bank financials (-1.14%), and communications (-1.83%). During the long holiday, news flow was relatively limited, and volatility is expected to decline after the holiday. Put options strategies are suitable for short-term holdings. If fundamentals such as the macroeconomy and listed company earnings improve, the stock index has ample room to rise. Long-term, the market is likely to see a volatile strengthening trend with a gradually rising pivot point. Currently, stock index futures are trading at a significant discount. During corrections, consider a covered call strategy involving long stock index futures and selling out-of-the-money call options.
Treasury bond futures: On the last day before the holiday, Treasury bond futures rebounded. Unilaterally, based on closing prices, the 30-year bond futures rose 0.1%, the 10-year bond futures rose 0.17%, the 5-year bond futures rose 0.11%, and the 2-year bond futures rose 0.04%. The yield on the most active 30-year Treasury bond rose 1.5 basis points to 2.255%, the yield on the most active 10-year bond futures fell 2.45 basis points to 1.783%, and the yield on the most active 2-year bond futures fell 1.5 basis points to 1.49%. Inter-product spreads for futures: 4TS-T, 2TF-T, and 3T-TL futures futures changed by -0.025 yuan, 0.055 yuan, and 0.445 yuan, respectively. Unilateral strategies: Both stocks and bonds strengthened on the last day before the holiday, but TL remained the weakest, while T showed the most resilience. The impact of the improvement in the official manufacturing PMI data in September was relatively weak. The 1.1 trillion yuan outright reverse repo operation conducted on the first day after the holiday was a routine operation and is not expected to have a significant impact. During the National Day holiday, the Hang Seng Index surged and then retreated, while US stocks saw little volatility. Gold's continued rise was a bright spot, and overall sentiment is expected to have little impact on the domestic bond market. We recommend continuing to consider buying TL on dips for short-term value. Strategy: The resiliency of T-shares is expected to persist, and we recommend a short-short (TS) and long (T) arbitrage strategy. This arbitrage strategy currently outperforms single-sided strategies. Hedging strategy: With the T-share net basis falling back to a low level, we recommend a long T-share basis portfolio.
Industrial silicon: The pre-holiday market showed a relatively weak performance. The initial market was primarily supported by policy expectations. While spot prices maintained a positive outlook, demand remained weak. From a fundamental perspective, industrial silicon production runs remained at a high level for the year, with further increases expected in the northwest. However, the southwest is poised for seasonal cost increases, potentially leading to a decline in production. Downstream polysilicon prices remained firm under policy guidance, but remain subject to the risk of production controls reducing industrial silicon consumption. The rest of the downstream market maintained relatively stable performance. Overall, the fundamentals for industrial silicon offer limited support, with market sentiment driven more by policy expectations. Short-term pressure may persist. A light short position is recommended, with the SI2511 contract trading range at 8,400-9,000 yuan/ton.
Copper: Overseas copper prices strengthened during the holiday, with London copper rising over 4% to around $10,700 and US copper rising nearly 5% to $5.11 per pound. Macro and market sentiment was neutral to bullish. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.1 in September, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment and broad-based gains in equity assets. Furthermore, the US Senate failed to pass a temporary appropriations bill during the holiday, creating uncertainty about the impact of the government shutdown on employment and inflation data. This spurred gains in gold and silver, and also drove copper prices higher. Fundamental data was bullish. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, which accounts for 3.5% of global copper production, halted operations. Combined with the Panama copper mine shutdown, approximately 5% of global copper production has been halted. Meanwhile, domestic spot copper concentrate prices (TCs) were mired in losses of -$40 per dry ton. At the end of September, domestic smelters intensified their calls for a halt to internal trading, reinforcing expectations of tightening global raw material and refined copper supplies, driving copper prices higher. Overall, the shutdown of the world's second-largest copper mine has exacerbated supply constraints. Combined with macroeconomic policy expectations and bolstered by gradually increasing positive factors, copper prices are likely to rise and fall. We maintain a medium- to long-term bullish outlook, but remain cautious about potential corrections after a short-term gap-up opening in the domestic market. Today's Shanghai copper price range is 84,000-86,500 yuan/ton. Strategically, short-term intraday trading is recommended, while medium- to long-term dips are still a good strategy (recommended strategy as of September 18, 2025). Regarding options, a combination of buying deep-dip call options and selling put options can be held (recommended strategy as of September 28, 2025).
Shanghai Lead: London Lead prices rose 0.93% during the holiday. From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, scrap battery recycling continues to see a price-cutting mentality in its procurement, with recyclers largely avoiding price drops and seeking higher prices to sell, putting downward pressure on scrap battery prices. Recycled lead companies have seen some recovery from losses, but some continue to suspend production for maintenance, limiting any short-term impact from restarts. On the primary lead side, the supply and demand situation for lead concentrate remains tight, with processing fees expected to stabilize. On the supply side, refineries in North China have partially resumed production, and with delivery deadlines approaching, overall supply is tight. On the demand side, overall restocking is limited, and there is little appetite for proactive inventory replenishment in the short term. Overall, lead prices have performed well, driven by macroeconomic sentiment, but given the limited improvement in fundamentals, the rebound is expected to be weak.
Shanghai Zinc: London zinc prices rose 4.3% during the holiday, with non-ferrous metals leading the charge. Macroeconomically, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for September performed well, coupled with risk aversion triggered by the government shutdown, driving gains across precious metals and non-ferrous metals. From a fundamental perspective, the decline in domestic zinc prices in October supported the lower bound of zinc prices from a cost perspective. A drop of approximately 300 TC has brought zinc smelting margins back to June levels. On the supply and demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu's production schedule, October supply increased by approximately 20,000 tons month-over-month. Furthermore, due to the significant reductions and suspensions in galvanizing operations during the National Day holiday, inventory depletion is primarily driven by concentrated pre-holiday restocking and post-holiday inventory reductions. October consumption is expected to see limited month-over-month growth compared to September. Domestic zinc ingot supply and demand remain dominated by accumulated excess inventory, though the volume is expected to be modest. Under the influence of spot prices, Shanghai zinc prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level, with a firm domestic-domestic price differential.
Rebar: Spot prices in most markets remained flat compared to pre-holiday prices, with some cities experiencing mixed performance. Due to moderate profits at blast furnace mills, fewer voluntary production cuts and shutdowns have occurred, and electric furnace profits have recovered slightly. This has increased the enthusiasm of electric furnace mills to resume production in the short term, keeping supply relatively high. However, during the National Day holiday, inventory withdrawals were modest, with a significant increase in factory inventories. Social inventories increased to varying degrees across various markets, leading to some accumulation. Furthermore, pre-holiday futures market performance was weak, and market stocking sentiment was insufficient. Merchants adopted a wait-and-see approach, resulting in weak holiday shipments. Some steel mills are planning to resume production around the National Day holiday, and rebar production is expected to rebound. However, steel mill profits have not yet fully recovered. If demand does not keep pace, increased supply could exert downward pressure on prices. Rebar prices are expected to continue to fluctuate after the holiday.
Hot-rolled coil (HCR): During the holiday, HRC production decreased by 14,000 tons, while inventories increased by 323,200 tons. Apparent demand decreased by 336,400 tons to 2,909,700 tons. Amidst a weakening supply and demand landscape, HRC fundamentals remain weak, and high supply pressure persists, putting pressure on prices. Production remained high during the holiday period. If demand falls short of expectations after the holiday, inventory pressure could further increase, impacting prices. We expect HRC prices to continue to fluctuate after the holiday.
Authorized by CITIC Construction Investment Futures Co., Ltd. to be forwarded by "a professional market analysis information website focusing on domestic futures derivatives trading": [ http:// ]
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- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
