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[Caixin Futures: Diverging Supply and Demand Patterns in the Ferrous Metals Market] ⑴ A rebounding macroeconomic environment and a slight improvement in the supply-demand structure are driving a correction in steel's relatively low valuations. However, steel demand may be facing a turning point, and inventory pressure will still rely on a decline in hot metal production to alleviate it. A high inventory-to-sales ratio may suppress price rebound potential. ⑵ Looking at different product categories, building materials demand is nearing its peak, and steel mills' order intake continues to improve. The short-term trend of strong coils and weak rebar is likely to persist. Our trading strategy maintains a short-term bullish approach on pullbacks, with a focus on the rate of decline in hot metal production. ⑶ On the capital side, both long and short positions in the top 20 positions in the Rebar 01 contract decreased, with short positions decreasing more significantly. In the top 20 positions in the Hot-rolled Coil 01 contract, longs reduced their positions while shorts increased theirs, with position changes slightly skewed to the bearish side. ⑷ Global iron ore shipments remain high, hot metal production continues its downward trend, and iron ore port inventories continue to accumulate. However, the decline in port arrivals this week may indicate destocking. ⑸ Iron ore supply and demand are weakening, but demand for restocking has increased following the price decline, requiring spot trading to open up space for further declines. In the medium term, iron ore shipments will continue to increase in November, while molten iron production still has significant room for decline. Weak expectations persist, and valuations face downward risk. (6) Regarding capital, there was a significant exit from the long coking coal and short iron ore portfolios in the early stages, with a higher number of exits from long coking coal positions and a larger number of exits from short iron ore positions. Future capital flows warrant attention. (7) Coking coal supply has been slowly recovering at production sites. Due to workface switching, stricter safety inspections, and environmental protection measures, coking companies' profits have recovered somewhat. Coal mine orders are strong, inventories remain low, and spot prices continue to rise. (8) It is important to note that steel mill profits are being squeezed, and rising raw material costs may be difficult to pass on smoothly to downstream markets. Strategically, a buy-on-low approach is recommended. (9) Regarding capital, both long and short positions in the top 20 positions in the coking coal 2601 contract have decreased, with a slight reduction in long positions, indicating a cautious market. (10) Following the full implementation of the second round of price increases for coke, losses at coking companies have eased somewhat, but production remains suppressed by environmental protection and maintenance disruptions. ⑾Against the backdrop of continued decline in hot metal production and rising costs at steel mills, the third round of price increases for coke spot prices may encounter significant resistance. There is limited room for improvement in profit per ton of coke, and market profits are still expected to shrink. Strategically, it is still advisable to consider going long on coal and short on coke. ⑿Manganese silicon factories have strong cost support and are not very willing to ship at low prices. Against the backdrop of declining hot metal production, downstream inquiries are average, factory inventories continue to increase, and the inherent supply and demand drivers are weak. In the short term, the market may fluctuate with the raw material coking coal. At the capital level, the positions of the top 20 positions in the manganese silicon 01 contract have not changed much.