CITIC Securities Futures: Cooling US employment rate puts downward pressure on copper prices.
2025-11-07 10:44:41
Copper: On Thursday evening, the SHFE copper futures contract fluctuated and retreated to 85,690 yuan, while LME copper closed near $10,685. Macroeconomic outlook: Neutral to bearish. According to US data provider Revelio Labs, non-farm payrolls decreased by 9,100 in October, compared to an increase of 33,000 in the previous month. Meanwhile, Challenger job cuts in the US reached 153,100 in October, a surge of 175.3% year-on-year, the highest level for the same period since 2003. The cooling US job market has led to expectations of recessionary interest rate cuts, putting pressure on copper prices. Fundamentals: Neutral. Yesterday, SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 1,332 tons to 43,900 tons, while LME copper inventories accumulated by 500 tons to 134,400 tons. As copper prices retreated, market trading activity improved, and domestic spot premiums rose slightly from their lows. Overall, overseas macroeconomic disturbances persist, the domestic policy vacuum persists, and the slow recovery of downstream trading at high prices suggests that copper prices will continue to face downward pressure in the near term. Today, the main Shanghai copper futures contract is expected to trade between 84,800 and 86,000 yuan/ton. Strategically, short-term trading should focus on this range, while medium- to long-term positions should wait for lower levels to accumulate more shares.
Stock Index Options: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.84%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 3.34%, the CSI 300 Index rose 1.43%, the SSE 50 Index rose 1.22%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.61%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.17%, and the SZSE 100 ETF rose 1.82%. The total turnover of the two markets was 2,055.248 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 182.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan Level 1 industries, the best performing industries were: Non-ferrous Metals (3.05%), Electronics (3.0%), and Communications (2.37%). The worst performing industries were: Retail (-1.04%), Social Services (-1.1%), and Media (-1.35%). From a medium- to long-term perspective, supported by policy and capital flows, A-shares may continue their slow bull market trend. Furthermore, if policies are further strengthened and fundamentals improve subsequently, the stock index has ample room for upward movement, and the market may primarily exhibit a gradual upward trend with a fluctuating central range in the long term. In the short term, the stock index has experienced a technical rebound after its correction, and further consolidation is still possible. Holding long positions in stock index futures combined with a collar strategy for hedging could be considered.
Ferroalloys: Coal prices continued to rise, leading to a relatively strong performance in alloy prices. Steel mill production intensity gradually declined, profitability deteriorated, and some steel mills began planning maintenance shutdowns, resulting in weakening demand. There is still time before winter stockpiling, and downstream restocking has not yet begun. Factory production is relatively normal; southern ferrosilicon and manganese enterprises have reduced production, but the reduction is not significant, and ferrosilicon production remains high, increasing factory inventory pressure. A short-term rebound is expected, with attention focused on upward resistance. Recommendation: Consider selling out-of-the-money call options at level 3 for the January contract.
Shanghai Lead: Overnight, Shanghai lead prices fluctuated weakly. From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, the domestic average TC still has room to decline, expected to fall to around 260 yuan/ton of metal; except for a lead smelter in Anhui with planned shutdowns, other companies' production is relatively stable, and there is still some room for increased supply after smelters resume stable production. On the recycled side, the operating rate of some recycled lead smelters has rebounded, but due to tight raw material supply and transportation issues, the overall supply increase is limited; after the import window opens, some crude lead may gradually flow in. On the consumption side, downstream battery manufacturers are reducing or halting production, mostly maintaining a just-in-time purchasing strategy. Overall, the spot market fundamentals are gradually improving in November, with lead prices mainly fluctuating at high levels.
Shanghai Zinc: Overnight, Shanghai zinc opened higher but closed lower. On the macro front, the number of layoffs at Challenger in the US indicated a cooling labor market, strengthening risk aversion. On the fundamental front, several mines underwent maintenance shutdowns in mid-to-late November, and domestic TC (treatment charge) prices were lower than smelters' expectations, leading to continued holding by holders. On the supply side, many smelters resumed production in November, with total production expected to increase by nearly 10,000 tons month-on-month after comprehensive scheduling; however, current mining issues are significantly disruptive, casting doubt on the actual increase. On the demand side, cold weather in northern China increased the difficulty of construction, leading to a slight decline in the operating rates of galvanizing and other industries. Overall, macro sentiment has weakened, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels in the short term.
Rubber: On Thursday, domestically produced full-latex rubber was priced at 14,550 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thai No. 20 mixed rubber was priced at 14,580 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. Raw materials: Yesterday, Thai latex closed at 56.3 baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day; there was no information on Thai cup lump rubber; Yunnan latex closed at 13.7 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; Hainan latex closed at 12.9 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg from the previous day. As of November 2, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.056 million tons, an increase of 17,000 tons, or 1.6%, from the previous day. China's total dark-colored rubber social inventory was 658,000 tons, an increase of 3%. Among them, Qingdao spot inventory increased by 3.6%; Yunnan increased by 0.5%; Vietnam No. 10 increased by 2.2%; and NR inventory increased by a total of 4.7%. China's total social inventory of light-colored rubber was 398,000 tons, down 0.4% month-on-month. Among them, old full-latex rubber decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, 3L increased by 0.9% month-on-month, and RU inventory decreased by 0.9% in total. Viewpoint: Recent fundamental contradictions are limited. With the second wave of downward pressure from Sino-US trade relations, the current valuation bubble in unilateral prices may have been largely digested. Looking ahead, considering that the deterioration of Sino-US trade relations has not materialized, it means that China's economic growth has not actually faced additional downward pressure. The demand growth driven by anti-involution is already a reality. That is, assuming no unexpected changes on the supply side (seasonal increases in supply are rationally expected), the end point of demand-side pricing should not be lower than before the anti-involution measures were introduced in July. Furthermore, US tariffs this year may continue to suppress global demand growth. Therefore, it is expected that the future unilateral price range for RU&NR will be higher than the low point in early July but lower than the high point in mid-July.
Methanol: In terms of spot prices, Daqi was 1990, Luoyang 2040, and Lubei 2180. Some upstream factories saw premium transactions, and the sentiment of inland traders improved, with a good atmosphere for replenishing orders. In the short term, the spot coal winter storage window is expected to provide some support to the raw material side; upstream methanol production remains high, coupled with the postponement of inland gas-based maintenance, it is expected that inland plants will maintain high supply in the short term; inventory in producing areas has been somewhat alleviated, and there is some demand for destocking in winter; traders have high inventory and are mainly supplying downstream demand. On Thursday, the basis in East China was 0.1-30, and below 11 was 0.1-5, with the basis maintaining a narrow range of fluctuation. In the short term, high imports from Iran and non-Iranian countries continue, and the reality of high port inventory and weak profits remains, with the profit of the industry chain recovering downstream; in the medium and long term, attention should be paid to Middle East weather, Southwest gas prices, and environmental protection policies in producing areas. In terms of operation, methanol is expected to trade weakly in the short term, and a wait-and-see approach is recommended. The reference range for methanol 2601 is 2060-2200 yuan/ton.
Urea: In terms of spot prices, the ex-factory price in Shandong is 1540 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price in Henan is 1530-1540 yuan/ton. The domestic urea market is mainly fluctuating, with better transactions at lower prices. On the supply side, weekly urea production has rebounded to nearly 200,000 tons, and high production is expected to continue in the short term; some agricultural demand and reserve demand have been released, which will reduce the pressure on inland inventory to some extent; port inventory is being consumed rapidly, reaching a low level for the year; recent news in the compound fertilizer industry has been concentrated, which may boost demand to some extent. Overall, upstream suppliers have a certain willingness to support prices, and the supply and demand contradiction of urea has not been resolved. If futures prices rise significantly, there will be profit-taking in both spot and futures markets, resulting in short-term fluctuations and downward pressure; in the medium to long term, attention should be paid to export quotas and winter stockpiling. In terms of operation, urea prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the urea 2601 contract expected to fluctuate within a range of 1560-1660 yuan/ton.
Rebar: In terms of the industry, rebar production decreased by 40,500 tons to 2,085,400 tons this week, while social inventory decreased by 51,100 tons to 4,257,000 tons, and mill inventory decreased by 48,700 tons to 1,668,400 tons. Apparent demand decreased by 136,700 tons compared to last week. This week, several regions, including Hebei, Henan, and Shanxi, issued heavy pollution weather warnings, which will suppress construction demand to some extent. The steel trading logic returned to the off-season fundamentals. With the rebound in stock and raw material prices, steel futures closing prices also rose slightly, but overall remained in a low-level fluctuation pattern.
Hot-rolled coil: This week, hot-rolled coil production decreased by 54,000 tons, while inventory increased by 38,600 tons. Explicit demand decreased by 175,900 tons to 3.143 million tons. Short-term supply and demand pressures remain high, and inventory reduction is slower than expected. Demand remains uncertain, and fundamental factors are unlikely to improve substantially. Steel prices are expected to remain in a low-level, volatile pattern. Strategically, the short-term trading range for rebar 2601 is estimated at 3000-3200 yuan/ton; the trading range for hot-rolled coil 2601 contract is estimated at 3200-3400 yuan/ton.
This post, authorized by CITIC Securities Futures Company, is forwarded by "a professional market analysis and information website focusing on domestic futures and derivatives trading": [http://].
Stock Index Options: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.84%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 3.34%, the CSI 300 Index rose 1.43%, the SSE 50 Index rose 1.22%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.61%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.17%, and the SZSE 100 ETF rose 1.82%. The total turnover of the two markets was 2,055.248 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 182.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan Level 1 industries, the best performing industries were: Non-ferrous Metals (3.05%), Electronics (3.0%), and Communications (2.37%). The worst performing industries were: Retail (-1.04%), Social Services (-1.1%), and Media (-1.35%). From a medium- to long-term perspective, supported by policy and capital flows, A-shares may continue their slow bull market trend. Furthermore, if policies are further strengthened and fundamentals improve subsequently, the stock index has ample room for upward movement, and the market may primarily exhibit a gradual upward trend with a fluctuating central range in the long term. In the short term, the stock index has experienced a technical rebound after its correction, and further consolidation is still possible. Holding long positions in stock index futures combined with a collar strategy for hedging could be considered.
Ferroalloys: Coal prices continued to rise, leading to a relatively strong performance in alloy prices. Steel mill production intensity gradually declined, profitability deteriorated, and some steel mills began planning maintenance shutdowns, resulting in weakening demand. There is still time before winter stockpiling, and downstream restocking has not yet begun. Factory production is relatively normal; southern ferrosilicon and manganese enterprises have reduced production, but the reduction is not significant, and ferrosilicon production remains high, increasing factory inventory pressure. A short-term rebound is expected, with attention focused on upward resistance. Recommendation: Consider selling out-of-the-money call options at level 3 for the January contract.
Shanghai Lead: Overnight, Shanghai lead prices fluctuated weakly. From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, the domestic average TC still has room to decline, expected to fall to around 260 yuan/ton of metal; except for a lead smelter in Anhui with planned shutdowns, other companies' production is relatively stable, and there is still some room for increased supply after smelters resume stable production. On the recycled side, the operating rate of some recycled lead smelters has rebounded, but due to tight raw material supply and transportation issues, the overall supply increase is limited; after the import window opens, some crude lead may gradually flow in. On the consumption side, downstream battery manufacturers are reducing or halting production, mostly maintaining a just-in-time purchasing strategy. Overall, the spot market fundamentals are gradually improving in November, with lead prices mainly fluctuating at high levels.
Shanghai Zinc: Overnight, Shanghai zinc opened higher but closed lower. On the macro front, the number of layoffs at Challenger in the US indicated a cooling labor market, strengthening risk aversion. On the fundamental front, several mines underwent maintenance shutdowns in mid-to-late November, and domestic TC (treatment charge) prices were lower than smelters' expectations, leading to continued holding by holders. On the supply side, many smelters resumed production in November, with total production expected to increase by nearly 10,000 tons month-on-month after comprehensive scheduling; however, current mining issues are significantly disruptive, casting doubt on the actual increase. On the demand side, cold weather in northern China increased the difficulty of construction, leading to a slight decline in the operating rates of galvanizing and other industries. Overall, macro sentiment has weakened, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels in the short term.
Rubber: On Thursday, domestically produced full-latex rubber was priced at 14,550 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thai No. 20 mixed rubber was priced at 14,580 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. Raw materials: Yesterday, Thai latex closed at 56.3 baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day; there was no information on Thai cup lump rubber; Yunnan latex closed at 13.7 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; Hainan latex closed at 12.9 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg from the previous day. As of November 2, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.056 million tons, an increase of 17,000 tons, or 1.6%, from the previous day. China's total dark-colored rubber social inventory was 658,000 tons, an increase of 3%. Among them, Qingdao spot inventory increased by 3.6%; Yunnan increased by 0.5%; Vietnam No. 10 increased by 2.2%; and NR inventory increased by a total of 4.7%. China's total social inventory of light-colored rubber was 398,000 tons, down 0.4% month-on-month. Among them, old full-latex rubber decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, 3L increased by 0.9% month-on-month, and RU inventory decreased by 0.9% in total. Viewpoint: Recent fundamental contradictions are limited. With the second wave of downward pressure from Sino-US trade relations, the current valuation bubble in unilateral prices may have been largely digested. Looking ahead, considering that the deterioration of Sino-US trade relations has not materialized, it means that China's economic growth has not actually faced additional downward pressure. The demand growth driven by anti-involution is already a reality. That is, assuming no unexpected changes on the supply side (seasonal increases in supply are rationally expected), the end point of demand-side pricing should not be lower than before the anti-involution measures were introduced in July. Furthermore, US tariffs this year may continue to suppress global demand growth. Therefore, it is expected that the future unilateral price range for RU&NR will be higher than the low point in early July but lower than the high point in mid-July.
Methanol: In terms of spot prices, Daqi was 1990, Luoyang 2040, and Lubei 2180. Some upstream factories saw premium transactions, and the sentiment of inland traders improved, with a good atmosphere for replenishing orders. In the short term, the spot coal winter storage window is expected to provide some support to the raw material side; upstream methanol production remains high, coupled with the postponement of inland gas-based maintenance, it is expected that inland plants will maintain high supply in the short term; inventory in producing areas has been somewhat alleviated, and there is some demand for destocking in winter; traders have high inventory and are mainly supplying downstream demand. On Thursday, the basis in East China was 0.1-30, and below 11 was 0.1-5, with the basis maintaining a narrow range of fluctuation. In the short term, high imports from Iran and non-Iranian countries continue, and the reality of high port inventory and weak profits remains, with the profit of the industry chain recovering downstream; in the medium and long term, attention should be paid to Middle East weather, Southwest gas prices, and environmental protection policies in producing areas. In terms of operation, methanol is expected to trade weakly in the short term, and a wait-and-see approach is recommended. The reference range for methanol 2601 is 2060-2200 yuan/ton.
Urea: In terms of spot prices, the ex-factory price in Shandong is 1540 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price in Henan is 1530-1540 yuan/ton. The domestic urea market is mainly fluctuating, with better transactions at lower prices. On the supply side, weekly urea production has rebounded to nearly 200,000 tons, and high production is expected to continue in the short term; some agricultural demand and reserve demand have been released, which will reduce the pressure on inland inventory to some extent; port inventory is being consumed rapidly, reaching a low level for the year; recent news in the compound fertilizer industry has been concentrated, which may boost demand to some extent. Overall, upstream suppliers have a certain willingness to support prices, and the supply and demand contradiction of urea has not been resolved. If futures prices rise significantly, there will be profit-taking in both spot and futures markets, resulting in short-term fluctuations and downward pressure; in the medium to long term, attention should be paid to export quotas and winter stockpiling. In terms of operation, urea prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the urea 2601 contract expected to fluctuate within a range of 1560-1660 yuan/ton.
Rebar: In terms of the industry, rebar production decreased by 40,500 tons to 2,085,400 tons this week, while social inventory decreased by 51,100 tons to 4,257,000 tons, and mill inventory decreased by 48,700 tons to 1,668,400 tons. Apparent demand decreased by 136,700 tons compared to last week. This week, several regions, including Hebei, Henan, and Shanxi, issued heavy pollution weather warnings, which will suppress construction demand to some extent. The steel trading logic returned to the off-season fundamentals. With the rebound in stock and raw material prices, steel futures closing prices also rose slightly, but overall remained in a low-level fluctuation pattern.
Hot-rolled coil: This week, hot-rolled coil production decreased by 54,000 tons, while inventory increased by 38,600 tons. Explicit demand decreased by 175,900 tons to 3.143 million tons. Short-term supply and demand pressures remain high, and inventory reduction is slower than expected. Demand remains uncertain, and fundamental factors are unlikely to improve substantially. Steel prices are expected to remain in a low-level, volatile pattern. Strategically, the short-term trading range for rebar 2601 is estimated at 3000-3200 yuan/ton; the trading range for hot-rolled coil 2601 contract is estimated at 3200-3400 yuan/ton.
This post, authorized by CITIC Securities Futures Company, is forwarded by "a professional market analysis and information website focusing on domestic futures and derivatives trading": [http://].
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