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[Caixin Futures: Analysis of Supply and Demand Pattern in the Ferrous Metals Market] ⑴ Steel demand declined more than expected, the inventory-to-sales ratio remained high overall, and raw material iron ore and coking coal inventories increased. Against the backdrop of declining pig iron production, the ferrous metals industry chain faces negative feedback pressure. ⑵ Considering that coal inventories have not yet accumulated significantly and steel demand remains volatile, the ferrous metals sector is expected to fluctuate with a bearish bias in the short term, but the negative feedback pressure on the industry chain is relatively limited. ⑶ Operationally, it is recommended to maintain a strategy of selling on rallies. Hot-rolled coil inventory pressure is greater, and it may be weaker than rebar in the short term. Alternatively, a long rebar/short iron ore hedging position can be held to repair steel mill profits. ⑷ Global iron ore shipments remain high, pig iron production continues to decline, and iron ore port inventories have accumulated significantly, resulting in a weak supply and demand pattern. ⑸ Before steel mills significantly replenish their inventories, iron ore itself lacks the momentum for a rebound. A long coking coal/short iron ore strategy can be maintained. Those who are solely shorting iron ore should consider exiting the position at an opportune time. ⑹ Changes in the top 20 positions in the iron ore 01 contract show a decrease in long positions and an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish trend. (7) Due to environmental protection measures and the disruption caused by switching work faces, the supply recovery of coal mines in major producing areas is slow. Downstream buyers are purchasing on an as-needed basis, and some traders are adopting a wait-and-see approach. (8) Inventories in producing areas remain low, but the number of loss-making steel mills is increasing, pig iron production continues to decline, and downstream support for raw materials is weakening, reducing upward momentum. (9) Coking coal futures contracts saw a reduction in both long and short positions, with long positions seeing a larger reduction. The strategy remains to buy on dips. (10) After the third round of spot price increases, the profit per ton of coke has recovered somewhat, but environmental disruptions combined with insufficient profit-driven factors mean that coking capacity remains suppressed. (11) Steel mill coke inventories are slightly low, and restocking demand remains. There are still expectations for spot coke prices to rise. In the short term, the market is oscillating between strong cost support and declining demand expectations, with the futures market mainly following the price of raw coal. (12) Manganese ore shipments remain stable, factory operating rates continue to decline, demand is decreasing, and factory inventories continue to increase, resulting in weak supply and demand drivers. 13. The tug-of-war between bulls and bears still needs a catalyst to break through; pay attention to whether the 5700-5850 trading range of the manganese silicon 01 contract can be effectively broken. 14. Both long and short positions increased among the top 20 holders of the manganese silicon 01 contract, with a larger increase in long positions. Overall, the changes in open interest are bullish, and recent fund flows have been somewhat volatile.