Gold Analysis: On a Day Without Data, What Will Support $4000? A Psychological Battle of Expectations is In Full Swing
2025-11-07 21:43:31
On Friday, November 7th, spot gold traded around the $4,000 mark during the North American session. The recent market focus remains on fluctuations in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, the impact of the US federal government shutdown on data releases and risk appetite, and the guidance provided by major central bank communications regarding interest rate paths.
From a macro perspective, the temporary pressure on the US dollar and the renewed narrative of a December rate cut have marginally eased the discount pressure on precious metals, but the extent of this easing remains constrained by the uncertainty of policy outlook. Several Federal Reserve officials have recently emphasized the need for a "slow and steady approach" as the market nears the neutral interest rate, with Vice Chairman Jefferson stating that the process should be "step-by-step and assessed," and noting that the lack of official data due to the shutdown has raised the bar for judgment. This means that market bets on rapid easing are unlikely to receive definitive backing, and the resulting positive impact on gold is more like a "slowly released option price" rather than a strong driving force.
Regarding risk appetite, global stock markets retreated under high valuation pressure, with technology and AI-related stocks weakening, prompting funds to maintain their allocation to defensive assets. The US federal government shutdown entered its 38th day, disrupting fiscal and statistical processes and delaying the release of official economic indicators, forcing the market to rely on alternative data and high-frequency signals. Increased uncertainty stemmed from divergent employment figures: on the one hand, corporate layoff announcements rose significantly; on the other hand, some private sector employment continued to show moderate growth. As the "true macroeconomic situation" is more difficult to identify quickly, safe-haven and hedging demand spread across assets. Gold benefited from its "volatility hedging" attribute, but this attribute manifested more as "bottom support" than "one-sided upward movement."
From the perspective of fund flows and positions, industry statistics show that global gold ETFs recorded a net inflow of approximately 54.9 tons in October, with North America and Asia contributing approximately 47.2 tons and 44.8 tons respectively, while Europe saw an outflow of approximately 37.4 tons. Structurally, regional differentiation reflects different interpretations of interest rate expectations and exchange rate trends: if the US dollar weakens and European currencies come under pressure, North American funds tend to use gold to hedge the duration and equity volatility of their asset portfolios; while in Asia, the demand for portfolio stabilizers also supports allocation tendencies. The net inflow of passive funds into ETFs creates a "slow and continuous" marginal buying force in the spot market, resonating with macroeconomic uncertainties and providing central support for gold prices.
Deconstructing the driving forces helps understand why gold has been slow to break through key levels. Firstly, while the market's pricing of interest rates leans towards easing, the Fed's "slow and steady" approach has curbed premature risk appetite, limiting the decline in the real risk-free rate. Gold's debt-free yield advantage has not yet translated into a strong unilateral trend. Secondly, the shutdown has narrowed the data perspective, leading to greater reliance on sentiment and alternative indicators in trading. The increased proportion of spread trading and event-driven trading makes gold more susceptible to short-term fluctuations near key levels, characterized by "crowded long positions → profit-taking."
In terms of short-term catalysts, recent high-frequency events include the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading and the flurry of statements from Federal Reserve officials before the November 28th quiet period. If the former indicates declining inflation expectations and weakening consumer spending, it will benefit gold through a three-way link of "yields—dollar—risk appetite." If the latter continues to emphasize "gradual action," it will suppress the possibility of "aggressive rate cuts," keeping gold primarily trading within a range. The focus for traders is whether repeated testing of the $4000 level will trigger a synchronized push from "data and communication," accompanied by increased trading volume. Without such resonance, the tug-of-war within the $3986-$4000 range will continue to dominate intraday volatility.
From a longer-term asset allocation perspective, gold's core function remains hedging against the combined risks of "policy path uncertainty + tail-end growth and inflation." In the current macroeconomic context, the inventory cycle and policy cycle have not yet clearly aligned, and the intermittent fluctuations in energy prices and the misalignment in the pace of manufacturing recovery prompt asset portfolios to maintain a certain degree of "uncorrelated" exposure. Gold's marginal support comes from two ends: one is the gradual decline in interest rate expectations under "slow easing," and the other is the probability of sudden risk events in a low-visibility environment. Neither of these forces is extreme, resulting in a price movement within a range.
Whether spot gold can break through resistance levels in the near term depends on the convergence of three factors: First, whether the US dollar and US Treasury yields experience a more sustained decline, creating room for price increases at the discount level; second, whether risk appetite strengthens the "insurance demand" for gold due to equity volatility and rising macroeconomic uncertainty; and third, whether net inflows of funds continue, especially whether passive funds and longer-term allocation funds enter the market simultaneously. If these three factors fail to move in tandem, the price will likely continue to consolidate within the $3986-$4000-$4050 range, consolidating its position over time. If they do move in tandem, the resistance above these round numbers will weaken more smoothly.
From the 60-minute chart, spot gold is currently hovering around $4000, oscillating between $3965 and $4015 after rebounding from $3928.80. $4000 and $4019.44 form upper resistance levels, with multiple attempts to break above failing to hold, indicating continued selling pressure. On the downside, $3965 is a key support level confirmed by recent pullbacks. The MACD is above the zero line but the histogram is narrowing, with the DIFF and DEA lines converging, indicating neutral momentum. The RSI is oscillating around 50, pointing to equilibrium. In summary, the price is fluctuating around $4000, exhibiting short-term range-bound characteristics. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the $4000 and $3965 support levels and their guidance on the price action.
From a macro perspective, the temporary pressure on the US dollar and the renewed narrative of a December rate cut have marginally eased the discount pressure on precious metals, but the extent of this easing remains constrained by the uncertainty of policy outlook. Several Federal Reserve officials have recently emphasized the need for a "slow and steady approach" as the market nears the neutral interest rate, with Vice Chairman Jefferson stating that the process should be "step-by-step and assessed," and noting that the lack of official data due to the shutdown has raised the bar for judgment. This means that market bets on rapid easing are unlikely to receive definitive backing, and the resulting positive impact on gold is more like a "slowly released option price" rather than a strong driving force.
Regarding risk appetite, global stock markets retreated under high valuation pressure, with technology and AI-related stocks weakening, prompting funds to maintain their allocation to defensive assets. The US federal government shutdown entered its 38th day, disrupting fiscal and statistical processes and delaying the release of official economic indicators, forcing the market to rely on alternative data and high-frequency signals. Increased uncertainty stemmed from divergent employment figures: on the one hand, corporate layoff announcements rose significantly; on the other hand, some private sector employment continued to show moderate growth. As the "true macroeconomic situation" is more difficult to identify quickly, safe-haven and hedging demand spread across assets. Gold benefited from its "volatility hedging" attribute, but this attribute manifested more as "bottom support" than "one-sided upward movement."
From the perspective of fund flows and positions, industry statistics show that global gold ETFs recorded a net inflow of approximately 54.9 tons in October, with North America and Asia contributing approximately 47.2 tons and 44.8 tons respectively, while Europe saw an outflow of approximately 37.4 tons. Structurally, regional differentiation reflects different interpretations of interest rate expectations and exchange rate trends: if the US dollar weakens and European currencies come under pressure, North American funds tend to use gold to hedge the duration and equity volatility of their asset portfolios; while in Asia, the demand for portfolio stabilizers also supports allocation tendencies. The net inflow of passive funds into ETFs creates a "slow and continuous" marginal buying force in the spot market, resonating with macroeconomic uncertainties and providing central support for gold prices.
Deconstructing the driving forces helps understand why gold has been slow to break through key levels. Firstly, while the market's pricing of interest rates leans towards easing, the Fed's "slow and steady" approach has curbed premature risk appetite, limiting the decline in the real risk-free rate. Gold's debt-free yield advantage has not yet translated into a strong unilateral trend. Secondly, the shutdown has narrowed the data perspective, leading to greater reliance on sentiment and alternative indicators in trading. The increased proportion of spread trading and event-driven trading makes gold more susceptible to short-term fluctuations near key levels, characterized by "crowded long positions → profit-taking."
In terms of short-term catalysts, recent high-frequency events include the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading and the flurry of statements from Federal Reserve officials before the November 28th quiet period. If the former indicates declining inflation expectations and weakening consumer spending, it will benefit gold through a three-way link of "yields—dollar—risk appetite." If the latter continues to emphasize "gradual action," it will suppress the possibility of "aggressive rate cuts," keeping gold primarily trading within a range. The focus for traders is whether repeated testing of the $4000 level will trigger a synchronized push from "data and communication," accompanied by increased trading volume. Without such resonance, the tug-of-war within the $3986-$4000 range will continue to dominate intraday volatility.
From a longer-term asset allocation perspective, gold's core function remains hedging against the combined risks of "policy path uncertainty + tail-end growth and inflation." In the current macroeconomic context, the inventory cycle and policy cycle have not yet clearly aligned, and the intermittent fluctuations in energy prices and the misalignment in the pace of manufacturing recovery prompt asset portfolios to maintain a certain degree of "uncorrelated" exposure. Gold's marginal support comes from two ends: one is the gradual decline in interest rate expectations under "slow easing," and the other is the probability of sudden risk events in a low-visibility environment. Neither of these forces is extreme, resulting in a price movement within a range.
Looking ahead
Whether spot gold can break through resistance levels in the near term depends on the convergence of three factors: First, whether the US dollar and US Treasury yields experience a more sustained decline, creating room for price increases at the discount level; second, whether risk appetite strengthens the "insurance demand" for gold due to equity volatility and rising macroeconomic uncertainty; and third, whether net inflows of funds continue, especially whether passive funds and longer-term allocation funds enter the market simultaneously. If these three factors fail to move in tandem, the price will likely continue to consolidate within the $3986-$4000-$4050 range, consolidating its position over time. If they do move in tandem, the resistance above these round numbers will weaken more smoothly.
Technical aspects
From the 60-minute chart, spot gold is currently hovering around $4000, oscillating between $3965 and $4015 after rebounding from $3928.80. $4000 and $4019.44 form upper resistance levels, with multiple attempts to break above failing to hold, indicating continued selling pressure. On the downside, $3965 is a key support level confirmed by recent pullbacks. The MACD is above the zero line but the histogram is narrowing, with the DIFF and DEA lines converging, indicating neutral momentum. The RSI is oscillating around 50, pointing to equilibrium. In summary, the price is fluctuating around $4000, exhibiting short-term range-bound characteristics. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the $4000 and $3965 support levels and their guidance on the price action.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
