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[Global LNG Market Enters Winter Without "Coldness," Ample Supply Causes Asian Spot Prices to Fall to Nearly Two-Year Low] ⑴ Asian spot LNG prices fell to a 20-month low this week. The average price of LNG delivered to Northeast Asia in January is estimated at $10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the lowest level since April 2024, while the price for February delivery is estimated at $9.60. ⑵ The main reason for the price decline is the continued abundance of global LNG supply, coupled with mild weather in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere, which has suppressed heating demand. Analysts predict that the heating index in Northeast Asia will remain below the ten-year average for the next two weeks. ⑶ The weak prices have stimulated purchasing interest from some price-sensitive buyers. Indian buyers and Chinese importers have shown some buying interest, but this is mainly opportunistic purchasing, as major utilities in Northeast Asia still have relatively ample inventory. ⑷ The European market is also under pressure. Its January LNG delivery benchmark is significantly discounted compared to the local TTF gas hub price. Investment fund positioning, mild weather, and ample pipeline gas and LNG imports have collectively maintained a bearish market sentiment. (5) Cross-regional arbitrage opportunities have shifted. Arbitrage opportunities for US goods shipped to Northeast Asia via the Cape of Good Hope have expanded, but are now more strongly directed towards the European market; while arbitrage opportunities via the Panama Canal have narrowed to break-even levels. (6) The current market exhibits structural characteristics: commercial operators are using low prices to build up inventory or hedge, driving net long positions to record highs, while hedge funds are expanding net short positions. The battle between long and short positions continues against the backdrop of low winter inventory levels.