Live Updates > Live Update Details
2025-12-12 20:59:33
[Caixin Futures: Agricultural Products Sector Under Overall Pressure, Edible Oils Weak, Corn Slightly Strong] ⑴ Palm oil's rebound failed and it continued to fall. Rapeseed oil futures rebounded to above 9600 yuan in spot prices, completing basis repair. Soybean oil, with less elasticity, followed the downward trend. ⑵ Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1st to 10th decreased by 10% compared to the previous period, while production increased by 6%. The core issues of inventory accumulation and weak exports remain unresolved, and prices may continue to decline. ⑶ The spot market reacted relatively slowly. In Guangzhou, the spot price of 24° palm oil was 8550 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from yesterday; the spot price of soybean oil was 8530 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; and the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9700 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. ⑷ Soybean meal futures have been fluctuating recently, with US soybeans gradually returning to rationality from previous optimistic export expectations, resulting in a pullback in the market. (5) Domestic soybean meal prices are generally bearish in the medium term due to lower import costs and continued domestic pressure. Recently, tightened customs policies have delayed the arrival of some imported soybeans, causing prices to stabilize. Short-term, it is recommended to sell on rallies. (6) Corn prices have recently declined, and farmers' reluctance to sell has weakened, leading to increased selling activity. However, inventory at northern ports remains low compared to the same period last year. (7) The logic of short-term restocking demand driving a stronger corn spot market remains. It is recommended to buy on dips after pullbacks, while continuously monitoring changes in farmers' selling sentiment. (8) Hog prices are currently strong due to the approaching winter solstice and peak season for cured meat production. News of hog disease in northern China has also contributed to a price rebound. (9) However, the long-term supply situation remains loose. It is recommended to try shorting the hog 03 contract with a small position on rallies, while monitoring the slaughtering pace and the peak season demand during the winter solstice. (10) Egg spot prices have recently been mainly range-bound. Although the egg 01 contract is a peak season contract, it is currently still maintaining a high premium, indicating a high valuation. 11. It is suggested that short positions may be entered at appropriate times, but the impact of changes in feed costs such as corn and soybean meal on egg prices should be continuously monitored.
