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[Undercurrents in the Crude Oil Market: Speculators Increase Bearish Bets Against the Trend] ⑴ The latest CFTC positioning data shows that in the week ending November 18, "managed funds," mainly hedge funds, increased their net short positions in US crude oil futures and options. Their combined net short positions in New York and London contracts increased by 9,479 contracts, reaching -30,030 contracts. ⑵ Specifically, in WTI crude oil futures and options on the New York Mercantile Exchange, managed funds' net positions turned to a net short of 3,321 contracts, a decrease of 6,499 long contracts or an increase of the same amount of short contracts compared to the previous week. ⑶ In contrast to the bearish sentiment of speculators, the "producers/traders/processors/users" group (who typically engage in commercial hedging) increased their net long positions by 18,969 contracts to 326,716 contracts, indicating that the spot market players are more inclined to sell hedges or reduce buy hedges at the current level. ⑷ In the refined oil market, sentiment is diverging. Managed funds significantly increased their net long positions in RBOB gasoline futures and options by 22,130 contracts to 100,208 contracts, indicating a relatively optimistic outlook for gasoline; while their net long positions in heating oil remained largely unchanged. (5) Total open interest (open contracts) saw a significant decline, with total open interest in WTI crude oil on NYMEX and ICE decreasing by 189,939 contracts to 3,157,103 contracts. This may indicate that some funds exited the market to observe during price fluctuations or consolidated their positions. (6) The increasingly divergent positions of speculative funds and industrial capital in crude oil reflect a profound disagreement in the market regarding supply and demand prospects: speculators may be more concerned about macroeconomic demand and inventory pressure, while industrial players may be managing risk based on costs or forward curves.