The US dollar is under pressure, while the Canadian dollar is strong; USD/CAD hovers near a three-month low awaiting key US and Canadian data for guidance.
2025-12-15 14:03:46
The USD/CAD pair was under pressure in late Asian trading on Monday, hovering around 1.3750, near a three-month low. The recent weakness of the US dollar has put market focus on the outlook for US interest rates and the performance of the labor market.
In the US, the dollar index (DXY) continued its decline from last week, hovering near an eight-week low. The CME FedWatch tool shows that there is a 64.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice by the end of 2026, with the policy dot plot predicting the federal funds rate will fall to 3.4%, implying at least one additional rate cut.
Market pessimism about the Federal Reserve's outlook, coupled with Trump's support for further rate cuts, has limited the dollar's upside. Investors will be closely watching Tuesday's U.S. November non-farm payroll (NFP) data for new clues about the dollar's direction.
In Canada, the Canadian dollar has been strong recently, and the market expects the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep interest rates stable in the short term. Last week, the BoC policy statement emphasized that current interest rates are sufficient to support inflation near 2%, provided that economic and inflation performance meets expectations.
In addition, Canada will release its November Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Monday, with the year-on-year increase expected to rise to 2.4% from 2.2% in October, which could further support the Canadian dollar. Overall, the USD/CAD pair is under short-term pressure at lower levels, and market sentiment is cautious.
The release of key data from the US and Canada will be a major driver of short-term market movements.
From the daily chart, the short-term trend is weak, with prices near a three-month low and the downward trend not showing significant change. Short-term moving averages are arranged in a downward direction, with the 100-hour SMA and 20-day moving average forming resistance around 1.3800. Key support levels are at 1.3750 and 1.3730, with further support around 1.3700.
The upside resistance levels to watch are 1.3800 and 1.3830. The daily RSI is neutral to slightly bearish, and the MACD histogram is weakening, suggesting a possible continuation of the weak, volatile trend in the short term. Overall, technical signals indicate that USD/CAD is under short-term pressure, and attention should be paid to volatility following the release of key USD/CAD data.
Editor's Note:
The USD/CAD pair is currently near a three-month low, with the US dollar under pressure and the Canadian dollar remaining stable. Tuesday's US non-farm payrolls and Canadian CPI data will provide directional guidance for the market; in the short term, the market is awaiting a clear direction.
In the US, the dollar index (DXY) continued its decline from last week, hovering near an eight-week low. The CME FedWatch tool shows that there is a 64.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice by the end of 2026, with the policy dot plot predicting the federal funds rate will fall to 3.4%, implying at least one additional rate cut.
Market pessimism about the Federal Reserve's outlook, coupled with Trump's support for further rate cuts, has limited the dollar's upside. Investors will be closely watching Tuesday's U.S. November non-farm payroll (NFP) data for new clues about the dollar's direction.
In Canada, the Canadian dollar has been strong recently, and the market expects the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep interest rates stable in the short term. Last week, the BoC policy statement emphasized that current interest rates are sufficient to support inflation near 2%, provided that economic and inflation performance meets expectations.
In addition, Canada will release its November Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Monday, with the year-on-year increase expected to rise to 2.4% from 2.2% in October, which could further support the Canadian dollar. Overall, the USD/CAD pair is under short-term pressure at lower levels, and market sentiment is cautious.
The release of key data from the US and Canada will be a major driver of short-term market movements.
From the daily chart, the short-term trend is weak, with prices near a three-month low and the downward trend not showing significant change. Short-term moving averages are arranged in a downward direction, with the 100-hour SMA and 20-day moving average forming resistance around 1.3800. Key support levels are at 1.3750 and 1.3730, with further support around 1.3700.
The upside resistance levels to watch are 1.3800 and 1.3830. The daily RSI is neutral to slightly bearish, and the MACD histogram is weakening, suggesting a possible continuation of the weak, volatile trend in the short term. Overall, technical signals indicate that USD/CAD is under short-term pressure, and attention should be paid to volatility following the release of key USD/CAD data.
Editor's Note:
The USD/CAD pair is currently near a three-month low, with the US dollar under pressure and the Canadian dollar remaining stable. Tuesday's US non-farm payrolls and Canadian CPI data will provide directional guidance for the market; in the short term, the market is awaiting a clear direction.
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