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[Caixin Futures: Short-Term Outlook for the Energy and Chemical Market, Geopolitical Situation Provides Support but Fundamentals of Most Commodities Remain Weak] ⑴ Regarding crude oil, the recent geopolitical situation has become more complex. The US continues to intervene in related negotiations, but the effects are not obvious, and the possibility of a short-term end to the conflict is unlikely. ⑵ The US is preparing to seize more oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela, and geopolitical uncertainty is supporting oil prices. ⑶ However, crude oil prices have recently encountered pressure and fallen back between the 20-day and 60-day moving averages, while global land and sea inventories remain high, downstream refined oil demand is weak, and inventories have risen above seasonal levels. ⑷ Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. ⑸ Regarding fuel oil, the recent geopolitical situation has become more complex. Related peace talks are still ongoing, but it is unlikely to yield results in the short term, and the probability of a US military strike against Venezuela is increasing. ⑹ The expectation of reduced supply of high-sulfur fuel oil due to sanctions remains, but due to weakening downstream demand, fuel oil prices are expected to follow suit with a downward bias. ⑺ Regarding glass, losses are worsening, and expectations for cold repairs and production conversions in float glass are strengthening, but the market is worried that an early rebound in prices may lead to delays or cancellations of cold repair plans. (8) Moreover, midstream inventories are large, and spot and futures prices have fallen again. (9) Overall, glass demand has weakened significantly year-on-year, the fundamentals have not yet substantially reversed, midstream inventories are high, and the "low valuation and weak driving force" is obvious. (10) Prices are expected to fluctuate weakly at low levels. (11) Regarding soda ash, the Alashan Phase II project has been ignited, and new production lines will also be ignited, further highlighting supply and demand pressures. (12) On Monday, the total inventory of domestic soda ash producers increased by 38,700 tons compared to last Thursday, an increase of 2.59%, and the soda ash operating rate today was 83.42%. (13) Basis offers show that the Hebei warehouse delivery 01 contract is at a discount of 20 yuan, while the Shahe delivered 01 contract is at a premium of 10 yuan. (14) Overall, soda ash can basically achieve a supply and demand balance with the support of maintenance, but the futures market is still suppressed by declining costs, expectations of supply recovery, and the background of overcapacity. (15) Short selling on rallies is recommended. ⒃ Regarding caustic soda, sales of high-grade caustic soda in Shandong remained sluggish on December 15th. Increased inventory led to further price declines. Some companies saw only temporary sales of 32% caustic soda, with low inventory levels prompting price increases. ⒄ Overall, the sharp drop in liquid chlorine prices supported the temporary stability of liquid caustic soda prices, and domestic inventory decreased by 9.46% month-on-month, indicating a slight improvement in supply and demand. ⒅ However, caustic soda remains in a state of high supply and high inventory, with the weak supply situation continuing. Furthermore, the continued decline in alumina prices strengthened expectations of production cuts, and non-aluminum products were in the off-season. ⒆ Caustic soda prices are likely to continue fluctuating at low levels.