The delayed non-farm payrolls report is coming! Employment data may exceed expectations, and a strong rebound in the US dollar is imminent before the holiday?
2025-12-16 09:25:07
The November U.S. nonfarm payrolls report (NFP report) will be released on Tuesday, December 16 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time (9:30 p.m. Beijing Time).
NFP report expected
Traders and economists expect the NFP report to show a net increase of 50,000 jobs in the U.S., a 0.3% month-over-month increase in average hourly earnings (3.7% year-over-year), and a slight rise in the U3 unemployment rate to 4.5%.
NFP Overview
The US job market this year may not end in a spectacular fashion, but rather in a quiet manner.
Traders were eagerly awaiting the latest NFP report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which was delayed this week as the bureau struggled to recover from the longest shutdown in U.S. government history. As some analyses suggest, economists believe the U.S. labor market continued its pattern of "low hiring, low laying off" in November.
Due to missing survey data, the October jobs report was largely missed (limited information is expected to be released along with the November jobs data), and the Federal Reserve will closely review the November data as it sets its monetary policy path for early 2026. Nevertheless, traders are currently pricing in only a one-in-four chance of another rate cut in January, meaning that unless there is a significant deterioration in the labor market, the market reaction to this release is likely to be limited.
NFP Prediction
As our regular readers know, we look to four historically reliable leading indicators to assess the monthly NFP report, but due to the government shutdown, we are unable to obtain the most relevant initial jobless claims data this month:
The ISM services employment sub-index rose slightly to 48.9 from 48.2 last month.
The ISM Manufacturing Employment Sub-index fell to 44.0 from 46.0 last month.
The ADP employment report showed a loss of 32,000 jobs, lower than the upward revision of 5,000 jobs in the previous month.
The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims fell to 217,000, a decrease of nearly 10,000 from the previous month.
Based on combined data and internal models, leading indicators suggest that this month's NFP report may be higher than expected, with non-farm payroll growth likely in the range of 60,000 to 100,000 jobs, although there is considerable uncertainty due to the limited dataset.
In any case, the monthly volatility of this report is difficult to predict, so we don't place too much faith in any forecasts (including our own). As always, other aspects of the report, including the closely watched average hourly earnings data and unemployment rate, will also influence the market's reaction to the release.
Potential NFP Market Response
From a technical perspective, the US dollar is relatively weak against most major counterpart currencies, and as long as the jobs report remains in positive territory, the risks are skewed toward a potential rebound.
Matt Weller, an analyst at Global Head of Research, points out that the US dollar index remains in a short-term downtrend, dragged down by expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while other major central banks are shifting to a more neutral stance as we enter 2026. From a technical perspective, the US dollar index formed a double-top pattern at 100.40 in November, laying the foundation for a decline towards the previously predicted target of around 97.60.
Nevertheless, the dollar is oversold by some short-term indicators, laying the foundation for a short-term rebound above 99.00, provided the jobs report remains positive. In this context, with traders closing out positions ahead of the holidays, it's unlikely the downward momentum will accelerate unless the unemployment rate surges to 4.5% or 4.6%.
At 09:23 Beijing time, the US dollar index is currently at 98.30.
NFP report expected
Traders and economists expect the NFP report to show a net increase of 50,000 jobs in the U.S., a 0.3% month-over-month increase in average hourly earnings (3.7% year-over-year), and a slight rise in the U3 unemployment rate to 4.5%.
NFP Overview
The US job market this year may not end in a spectacular fashion, but rather in a quiet manner.
Traders were eagerly awaiting the latest NFP report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which was delayed this week as the bureau struggled to recover from the longest shutdown in U.S. government history. As some analyses suggest, economists believe the U.S. labor market continued its pattern of "low hiring, low laying off" in November.
Due to missing survey data, the October jobs report was largely missed (limited information is expected to be released along with the November jobs data), and the Federal Reserve will closely review the November data as it sets its monetary policy path for early 2026. Nevertheless, traders are currently pricing in only a one-in-four chance of another rate cut in January, meaning that unless there is a significant deterioration in the labor market, the market reaction to this release is likely to be limited.
NFP Prediction
As our regular readers know, we look to four historically reliable leading indicators to assess the monthly NFP report, but due to the government shutdown, we are unable to obtain the most relevant initial jobless claims data this month:
The ISM services employment sub-index rose slightly to 48.9 from 48.2 last month.
The ISM Manufacturing Employment Sub-index fell to 44.0 from 46.0 last month.
The ADP employment report showed a loss of 32,000 jobs, lower than the upward revision of 5,000 jobs in the previous month.
The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims fell to 217,000, a decrease of nearly 10,000 from the previous month.
Based on combined data and internal models, leading indicators suggest that this month's NFP report may be higher than expected, with non-farm payroll growth likely in the range of 60,000 to 100,000 jobs, although there is considerable uncertainty due to the limited dataset.
In any case, the monthly volatility of this report is difficult to predict, so we don't place too much faith in any forecasts (including our own). As always, other aspects of the report, including the closely watched average hourly earnings data and unemployment rate, will also influence the market's reaction to the release.
Potential NFP Market Response
From a technical perspective, the US dollar is relatively weak against most major counterpart currencies, and as long as the jobs report remains in positive territory, the risks are skewed toward a potential rebound.
Matt Weller, an analyst at Global Head of Research, points out that the US dollar index remains in a short-term downtrend, dragged down by expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while other major central banks are shifting to a more neutral stance as we enter 2026. From a technical perspective, the US dollar index formed a double-top pattern at 100.40 in November, laying the foundation for a decline towards the previously predicted target of around 97.60.
Nevertheless, the dollar is oversold by some short-term indicators, laying the foundation for a short-term rebound above 99.00, provided the jobs report remains positive. In this context, with traders closing out positions ahead of the holidays, it's unlikely the downward momentum will accelerate unless the unemployment rate surges to 4.5% or 4.6%.
At 09:23 Beijing time, the US dollar index is currently at 98.30.
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