With the non-farm payrolls report about to be released, the market is holding its breath: will gold take this opportunity to break through to new heights?
2025-12-16 15:50:23
Tuesday, December 16th. Spot gold traded around $4290 in early European trading, with the market consolidating near a key level. Recent macroeconomic focus has revolved around the monetary policy paths of major central banks, particularly the further softening of the Federal Reserve's policy stance, which has become a core variable supporting precious metal prices. Against this backdrop, although gold prices experienced a brief pullback, the overall bullish trend remains unchanged, and it is approaching a significant technical breakout zone.
Last week, the Federal Reserve implemented its expected 25-basis-point interest rate cut, marking the third rate reduction this year. Although the official policy statement maintained the phrase "data-dependent," several officials' public remarks revealed concerns about weakening momentum in the labor market. New York Fed President Williams stated that current interest rates already possess a moderately restrictive characteristic and emphasized that downward pressure on the employment side cannot be ignored. Fed Governor Milan went further, pointing out that existing models may overestimate the neutral interest rate level, and that under the influence of multiple factors such as changes in immigration structure, tariff adjustments, and tax reform, the actual neutral interest rate may approach zero. Such statements reinforced market expectations for continued easing. Currently, financial market pricing indicates at least two more rate cuts before the end of 2026, while the official dot plot only hints at one. This widening discrepancy reflects a difference in assessments of the growth outlook between policymakers and traders. This difference itself is a potential driving force for rising gold prices.
Furthermore, although recent statements from US officials suggest a possible easing of tensions in Ukraine, with a peace agreement nearing completion, core issues such as border security arrangements and sovereignty disputes remain unresolved, and regional tensions persist. This means that safe-haven demand has not completely disappeared from market pricing. Given the continued uncertainty in many parts of the world, gold's role as a traditional safe-haven asset remains robust.
After a period of rapid gains, spot gold has entered a consolidation phase, with short-term volatility somewhat reduced, but the overall center of gravity remains upward. Prices are currently fluctuating narrowly between $4280 and $4300, near a resistance zone formed by previous highs. A successful breakout and hold above this level could open up further upside potential.
From a daily chart perspective, spot gold has been trending upwards after forming a low of 3997.72, breaking through and holding above 4180, with the trend center continuing to rise. Recently, after breaking through 4264.43, the price accelerated to 4353.36, followed by consolidation at higher levels and a slight pullback, currently still within the retracement range after breaking the previous high. In the MACD, the DIFF and DEA are above the zero line and the histogram is positive, indicating that bullish momentum still dominates, but the slowing expansion of the histogram suggests that short-term momentum may be cooling. The RSI is around 66, close to the strong zone but not extreme, and coupled with the sideways movement of the candlestick at high levels, it is more likely to enter a phase of "strong consolidation/digestion of gains". Structurally, 4260-4290 can be considered a short-term dividing line between bulls and bears, with further support around 4180; on the upside, there is resistance at 4350 and higher, with the risk of increased volatility. Overall, a bullish trend with a slightly volatile rhythm is a more prudent interpretation.
It's worth noting that although the US is about to release its delayed October non-farm payrolls report and the full November employment data, the market generally expects only 20,000 new jobs in October, rising to 50,000 in November, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.4%, indicating a moderate slowdown in the overall labor market. Retail sales data and the preliminary December Purchasing Managers' Index will also be released soon. If the data shows a further slowdown in the economy, it could reignite market expectations that the Federal Reserve will accelerate its easing measures, thus providing new upward momentum for gold.
In summary, the core logic supporting gold prices currently lies in the fact that the overall trend of monetary policy easing has not fundamentally reversed. The Federal Reserve's gradual interest rate cuts and the unresolved geopolitical risks have jointly formed a bottom support for gold. Going forward, market focus will be on whether US economic data further confirms the slowdown in growth and whether more Fed officials will adopt a more dovish stance. Furthermore, the sustainability of global central bank gold purchases and the seasonal recovery in physical demand may also become marginal variables. Under the interplay of these multiple factors, the gold market is at a critical juncture, transitioning from quantitative to qualitative change.
Last week, the Federal Reserve implemented its expected 25-basis-point interest rate cut, marking the third rate reduction this year. Although the official policy statement maintained the phrase "data-dependent," several officials' public remarks revealed concerns about weakening momentum in the labor market. New York Fed President Williams stated that current interest rates already possess a moderately restrictive characteristic and emphasized that downward pressure on the employment side cannot be ignored. Fed Governor Milan went further, pointing out that existing models may overestimate the neutral interest rate level, and that under the influence of multiple factors such as changes in immigration structure, tariff adjustments, and tax reform, the actual neutral interest rate may approach zero. Such statements reinforced market expectations for continued easing. Currently, financial market pricing indicates at least two more rate cuts before the end of 2026, while the official dot plot only hints at one. This widening discrepancy reflects a difference in assessments of the growth outlook between policymakers and traders. This difference itself is a potential driving force for rising gold prices.
Furthermore, although recent statements from US officials suggest a possible easing of tensions in Ukraine, with a peace agreement nearing completion, core issues such as border security arrangements and sovereignty disputes remain unresolved, and regional tensions persist. This means that safe-haven demand has not completely disappeared from market pricing. Given the continued uncertainty in many parts of the world, gold's role as a traditional safe-haven asset remains robust.
Market performance
After a period of rapid gains, spot gold has entered a consolidation phase, with short-term volatility somewhat reduced, but the overall center of gravity remains upward. Prices are currently fluctuating narrowly between $4280 and $4300, near a resistance zone formed by previous highs. A successful breakout and hold above this level could open up further upside potential.
From a daily chart perspective, spot gold has been trending upwards after forming a low of 3997.72, breaking through and holding above 4180, with the trend center continuing to rise. Recently, after breaking through 4264.43, the price accelerated to 4353.36, followed by consolidation at higher levels and a slight pullback, currently still within the retracement range after breaking the previous high. In the MACD, the DIFF and DEA are above the zero line and the histogram is positive, indicating that bullish momentum still dominates, but the slowing expansion of the histogram suggests that short-term momentum may be cooling. The RSI is around 66, close to the strong zone but not extreme, and coupled with the sideways movement of the candlestick at high levels, it is more likely to enter a phase of "strong consolidation/digestion of gains". Structurally, 4260-4290 can be considered a short-term dividing line between bulls and bears, with further support around 4180; on the upside, there is resistance at 4350 and higher, with the risk of increased volatility. Overall, a bullish trend with a slightly volatile rhythm is a more prudent interpretation.
It's worth noting that although the US is about to release its delayed October non-farm payrolls report and the full November employment data, the market generally expects only 20,000 new jobs in October, rising to 50,000 in November, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.4%, indicating a moderate slowdown in the overall labor market. Retail sales data and the preliminary December Purchasing Managers' Index will also be released soon. If the data shows a further slowdown in the economy, it could reignite market expectations that the Federal Reserve will accelerate its easing measures, thus providing new upward momentum for gold.
In summary, the core logic supporting gold prices currently lies in the fact that the overall trend of monetary policy easing has not fundamentally reversed. The Federal Reserve's gradual interest rate cuts and the unresolved geopolitical risks have jointly formed a bottom support for gold. Going forward, market focus will be on whether US economic data further confirms the slowdown in growth and whether more Fed officials will adopt a more dovish stance. Furthermore, the sustainability of global central bank gold purchases and the seasonal recovery in physical demand may also become marginal variables. Under the interplay of these multiple factors, the gold market is at a critical juncture, transitioning from quantitative to qualitative change.
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