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[Caixin Futures: Short-Term Outlook for the Ferrous Metals Market Diverges, Focus on Cost and Demand Game] ⑴ Against the backdrop of continued contraction in pig iron production, the pressure of high steel inventory is gradually easing; however, demand expectations remain weak, and the upward drive for steel itself is insufficient. Considering the approaching winter stockpiling period for raw materials, short-term steel futures prices may mainly follow the fluctuations of raw materials (the rebar 05 contract may remain within the range of 3065 to 3120). ⑵ From the perspective of capital structure, both long and short positions in the top 20 positions of rebar and hot-rolled coil 05 contracts have reduced, reflecting the current cautious market sentiment. Overall, the supply and demand drivers for steel are relatively limited, and short-term price trends may be anchored to changes in the cost side, with limited overall volatility. Operationally, it is recommended to focus on the actual pace and strength of the winter stockpiling of raw materials. ⑶ From a practical perspective, pig iron production continues to decline, and port inventories are accumulating and at an absolute high level, putting overall pressure on iron ore prices. In terms of expectations, steel mills' imported ore inventories have fallen to a relatively low level in recent years, and with the approaching winter stockpiling window, the expectation of price bottom support is gradually strengthening. (4) In the short term, the iron ore 05 contract may continue to fluctuate between 745 and 775 yuan. In terms of capital structure, both long and short positions increased among the top 20 holders, with a more significant increase in short positions, resulting in a slightly bearish overall position change. Overall, the iron ore market is facing a mix of real pressure and expected support, lacking a clear unidirectional driver in the short term, and the oscillating pattern may continue. The pace of steel mill restocking and port inventory reduction need to be closely monitored. (5) Mongolian coal clearance remains high, while domestic coal mines, after completing their annual targets, are continuing to expand maintenance and production reduction efforts, leading to an overall contraction in supply. On the demand side, market sentiment is generally weak, with some coking plants seeing a rebound in purchases (some coal mines have already begun raising prices). Under this supply and demand situation, the futures price may have gradually solidified a temporary bottom. (6) In terms of capital, both long and short positions increased among the top 20 holders of the coking coal 05 contract, with a more significant increase in long positions, resulting in a more optimistic position structure. Overall, the market is showing signs of bottom support due to the combined effects of tightening supply and expectations of winter stockpiling demand. Operationally, it is recommended to closely monitor the stabilization of spot prices and the spread of price increases, and consider taking advantage of short-term buying opportunities at lower levels. (7) Environmental protection-related production restrictions in production areas continue to have an impact, further tightening regional supply. On the demand side, affected by the continued decline in pig iron production, steel mills' demand for coking coal is weak, and coking plant inventories are gradually accumulating. The third round of spot price reductions is expected to be implemented this week. (8) From a valuation perspective, the current coking coal 01 contract price already reflects the expectation of about five rounds of price reductions (based on dry quenching coking), while the spot market generally expects only about three rounds. The futures price has largely reflected the pessimistic expectations for the spot market, and the valuation has entered a relatively low range.