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2025-12-16 23:36:58
[November Jobs Report Unlikely to Significantly Change Considerations for Further Rate Cuts] (1) The November jobs data is unlikely to significantly change the Fed's considerations for further rate cuts. The data shows that weak hiring has provided support for the Fed's previous three rate cuts, but it is not severe enough to trigger another rate cut in January next year, and the federal government shutdown may affect the accuracy of the data. (2) Specifically, the unemployment rate rose to 4.56% in November, close to officials' year-end expectations; private sector hiring showed signs of stabilization, and the three-month average number of new jobs rose to 75,000, which is in line with the Fed's goal of "stabilizing or slightly increasing" the unemployment rate. Market expectations for a rate cut in January remain at around 25%. (3) Fed Chairman Powell pointed out that there is a possibility of overreporting of the jobs data and that there are "significant downside risks" to the job market, but emphasized that the current policy stance is "favorable", implying that there is no rush to cut rates again; if there is a lack of evidence of continued weak hiring, another rate cut may exacerbate internal divisions - officials who opposed last week's rate cut need clearer evidence of inflation returning to the 2% target. The December jobs report (to be released in early January next year) will be more relevant, as its performance will influence the Fed's next decision.
