Live Updates > Live Update Details
2025-12-17 18:30:48
[Southern European Bond Markets Diverge, 10-Year Italian Bonds Significantly Premium Over Portuguese Bonds] ⑴ After directional adjustments for yield spreads, 10-year Italian government bonds appear overvalued compared to 10-year Portuguese government bonds. ⑵ Based on a three-month constant yield-to-maturity regression model, 10-year Italian bonds are 4.0 basis points more expensive than beta-adjusted 10-year Portuguese bonds. ⑶ This deviation is 2.1 standard deviations, a significant statistical deviation. ⑷ This signal indicates a short-term divergence in risk premiums between Italian and Portuguese government bonds, both from Southern Europe, in current market pricing. ⑸ This provides investors focused on intra-Eurozone credit spreads with a concrete and quantifiable point of relative value observation, suggesting potential convergence pressure on the spreads between the two countries.
